What Justifies your max bet and why?

[Freightman]

You need to be really careful with things people say on the internet. I'm not commenting on anyone you just mentioned specifically. But I have seen a lot of people who talk about some really advanced system they're running, and when I watched them play they were making huge bets when it was -2 true count and making basic strategy mistakes.


Most of the people who comment on these boards can't count down a shoe using Hi Lo and play basic strategy correctly. Again, I'm not talking about anyone specifically. I'm just saying, be careful about people making unsubstantiated claims on the internet.

So, in other words - no one in specific but most people in general. Perhaps you’re referring to Don. After all he is no one in specific. Sounds like a non specific but general in nature cheap shot.

No, wait - Your response is attached to comments made by Secretariat referring to specific players. Is it them whom you are referring to who cannot countdown a shoe playing hi lo.

If you've got an issue - spout it.

[Secretariat]

I'm just saying, be careful about people making unsubstantiated claims on the internet.

I would be suspicious of a 21st century blackjack claim offering a SUPER SECRET.

[moo321]

So, in other words - no one in specific but most people in general.

I meant exactly what I said.

[Freightman]

I meant exactly what I said.

There's something protruding from your left ear.

[moo321]

It's not much harder to side count 789s than just counting 7s.

Morbid curiosity has gotten the better of me. How on earth do you even propose keeping all these counts? Main count in plus/minus, then 4 different numbers after? You can't do a number and then a letter like they used to do to track aces in pitch games, because you run out of letters.


And then what do you do with that information? Compare number of 7s to the number of 9s seen, then divide by the number of quarter decks and make an adjustment to the running before betting decisions?


Let's say you want to decide whether to hit a 12 vs. 3. Do you add all of them up, compare to expected number based on quarter decks played, and then make a quick adjustment to running that you then adjust to true for the purposes of deciding if you're past your index?

[Secretariat]

Morbid curiosity has gotten the better of me. How on earth do you even propose keeping all these counts? Main count in plus/minus, then 4 different numbers after? You can't do a number and then a letter like they used to do to track aces in pitch games, because you run out of letters.


And then what do you do with that information? Compare number of 7s to the number of 9s seen, then divide by the number of quarter decks and make an adjustment to the running before betting decisions?


Let's say you want to decide whether to hit a 12 vs. 3. Do you add all of them up, compare to expected number based on quarter decks played, and then make a quick adjustment to running that you then adjust to true for the purposes of deciding if you're past your index?

I should have been more precise. I count 789s as a block not as seperate counts. So if you practice just a little bit side counting, it's not much harder to keep a 789 side count than just counting 7s. Actually, I think it's the just the same level of difficulty. I don't need quarter-deck counts as my strategy is geared toward ratios, a variation of Tarzan/Hi-Lo count.

There's obviously a limit to the extra information one can deal with although Tarzan did not seem to have any limit. Also consider differences between 2-deck vs 6-deck. Also consider that side counting can be greatly improved with proper mental strategies and training. By the way, using letters is not my strategy.

Morbid curiosity???? What the hell is that? To me curiosity is a healthy thing. At least, it should be.

[moo321]

I should have been more precise. I count 789s as a block not as seperate counts. So if you practice just a little bit side counting, it's not much harder to keep a 789 side count than just counting 7s. Actually, I think it's the just the same level of difficulty. I don't need quarter-deck counts as my strategy is geared toward ratios, a variation of Tarzan/Hi-Lo count.

There's obviously a limit to the extra information one can deal with although Tarzan did not seem to have any limit. Also consider differences between 2-deck vs 6-deck. Also consider that side counting can be greatly improved with proper mental strategies and training. By the way, using letters is not my strategy.

Morbid curiosity???? What the hell is that? To me curiosity is a healthy thing. At least, it should be.

You didn't explain the mechanics of this. Are you keeping a running plus minus count, and then a running count of how many 7s, 8s, and 9s you've seen?


If you're not true counting but using ratios, are you also keeping track of the total number of cards played?

And then how are you using this information? It's not useful for betting information because you don't know if it's 7 heavy or 9 heavy, so it would only be for playing decisions. Are you modifying your main count by the 789 density to make index decisions?

[Secretariat]

You didn't explain the mechanics of this. Are you keeping a running plus minus count, and then a running count of how many 7s, 8s, and 9s you've seen?

First, just a reminder that I am not promoting this system. I just answered a question from 8475309 who asked how he could integrate middle cards to a linear system. He's well aware of the 4-column count that Tarzan used. The Tarzan system has been discussed to great lengths here and I suggest you study it and play around with it for a couple weeks (1-deck and 2-deck first) and let us know how you feel about it. He has specific charts for index play but let's not get into this yet.

Now, for anyone interested in side counting aces and 789s as a group with Hi-Lo, here it is. You begin a 6-decker with 0/24/72 count and begin a 2-decker with 0-8-24. The first colum is HiLo RC and the numbers of the two last columns go down gradually. Obviously this would greatly help insurance decisions. It can even lead to visual perfect insurance or mathematical perfect insurance, the most important strategy deviation.

At the next level, there's a mental strategy that can be used regarding 7v9 ratios. it's useful when a bunch of 7s come out early in the shoe or a bunch of 9s. It affects both betting and playing decisions, especially with 13 totals deep into a 6-decker or at 2deck.

[Secretariat]

if you're not true counting but using ratios, are you also keeping track of the total number of cards played?

yes!

[Secretariat]

And then how are you using this information? It's not useful for betting information because you don't know if it's 7 heavy or 9 heavy, so it would only be for playing decisions. Are you modifying your main count by the 789 density to make index decisions?

If you make no disctinction between 7s and 9s, you still know with the total of 789s if the deck is overload with neutral cards or if it's short of neutral cards. Obviously, this affects the odds of getting blackjacks in deep territory. As mentioned previously, there's also a mental strategy that can be used to know if the deck is 9 strong or 7 strong (or weak should I say). I don't modify my main count but somewhat like Freightman does, it's possible to know if you have a TC2 strong or a TC2 weak for example. He uses the term QTC (quality true count) which is appropriate.

[Sundown]

The quality of true count that you mentioned is very real and have experienced it myself. In the Theory of Blackjack by Peter Griffin, he also eludes to the idea of creating a bucket counting technique around the 8s and 9s. I've always thought that since the 8s, & 9s were not worth much mathematically , that we just counted them as 0. Since I already count 7s (I use KO) I noticed that my max bet indicator may not always correlate properly with 10s & Aces, or I really should have it my 12 vs a dealers deuce when my count indicated a richness of 10s and Aces.

Thanks for your commentary as usual, very useful, don't know what if any I'm going to do about this.

[8675309]

I am not sure I could handle another side count as I'm still perfecting the base and side count I use now. With that said, I understand the concept of using the 8,9 density for specific plays like hitting 12 even when main count says not to. I play mainly 6 deck so my main question is how does the 8,9 density affect your betting only? I was very familiar with Tarzans 4 column count years ago but do not understand how the 8,9 only affects betting since I already count the 6,7.
Thanks

[Sundown]

If your count indicates that you place your max bet on the next hand in anticipation of Aces and tens coming your way but you get a lousy 8 or 9 or 8&9 for a lousy 17 on your max bet, then this would be an example of what Freightman was talking about regarding true counts not being so true after all.