Freightman - because I need to see why I have been successful at blackjack using progressive betting. All the math tells me that any type of progressive betting should be same as flat betting (with higher bet average), but it appears to me that this is not what I am experiencing. I need to convince myself that I am just experiencing variance (luck).
How many hands have you played in total? Have to try playing 34 hours non-stop using progressive betting? You might get lucky from time to time but if you play long enough your EV will be negative because betting cannot overcome the house edge.Originally Posted by BJ_WIN
It is a fact that the expected value of a series of bets is equal to the sum of the series. If you do nothing to change your expected value (say -.50%) in this case and you bet $10, $20, $40, $80, $160 as high as you want to go, your EV is equal to: $10(-.50%)+$20(-.50%)+$40(-.50%) .....+$160(-.50%). As you can see, every bet is a losing bet and the sum of the outcome of this series will always be a loss.
Anything can happen in the short term and if you have been winning it is because of variance. In the long term, if you bet this way, your EV will equal -.50% X The total amount bet. The only way to change this formula is to change the overall negative EV into a positive EV. You are not doing this by raising your bet. Any simulation you run will have these figures in the long term.
Take a fair coin. The EV is zero, however if you and someone flip 1,000 times, one of you will be a winner and one will be a loser but if you flip for a very long time, the outcome will get closer and closer to zero. This is what you are experiencing right now, short term variance.
Last edited by Bodarc; 10-20-2015 at 02:29 PM.
Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson
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