When to not surrender for cover...

**Three** · 03-02-2015, 05:20 AM

Originally Posted by seriousplayer

Try this for cover:

Surrender when the TC >= 0.5, else hit. Hit even though surrender is offered for TC <= 0.5.

Are you serious? How is that cover? They expect a counter's index plays to correspond to bet size. Cover would be to surrender when you shouldn't. I am seeing a lot of talk about cover that seems to not understand what cheap cover is or what effective cover is. You shouldn't try to use cover unless your win rate can afford it, there is actual heat to worry about and you know what cover plays are effective and at a low cost. All this guessing about what cover to use is crazy. I would like the next post asking about cover to show the frequency the play is wrong, what is the cost to different wonging styles and why you think it will deflect heat This guessing with little thought is just a dangerous road to go down. I am surprised DonS hasn't gotten in on this. He has a great chapter in BJA3 that covers some of this Chapter 7: Camouflage for the Basic Strategist and the Card Counter. Cover needs to be analyzed very carefully or you will give your advantage away. The worst thing is when you do this and have no need for cover to begin with.

**moo321** · 03-02-2015, 06:19 AM

I question whether anyone should be making surrender cover plays. What surveillance guy is going to know surrender indexes? The only one I might think about is 17 v. A, but only because it looks like a hole card play if the dealer has 18+ in the hole, not because surveillance knows that is basic strategy.

I cannot recall a single time I've even suspected my surrender plays of bringing down heat.

**marriedputter** · 03-02-2015, 08:22 AM

Originally Posted by moo321

I question whether anyone should be making surrender cover plays. What surveillance guy is going to know surrender indexes? The only one I might think about is 17 v. A, but only because it looks like a hole card play if the dealer has 18+ in the hole, not because surveillance knows that is basic strategy.

I cannot recall a single time I've even suspected my surrender plays of bringing down heat.

I have never picked the brain of a surveillance person so I have no idea what they do and don't look for.

I have never had heat AT ALL so it's difficult for me to have an opinion. But if a casino offers surrender, all things being equal I would think that they would be more nervous than one that doesn't offer surrender. I just want to be prepared.

I like bigplayer's advice on this. If a casino raises an eyebrow when you are not consistent on your 15s and 16s against 10s and aces, then always surrendering the hand may be a good play. You surrender when you shouldn't with low bets and surrender when you should with high bets. This removes the inconsistencies of your play (like constantly changing your play on 16 vs. 10 at casinos with no surrender).

**moo321** · 03-02-2015, 10:22 AM

I wouldn't play at a casino that is scrutinizing whether I surrender 15 v. 10 with large or small bets out. That's about 3 levels too sharp for me.

**biggg** · 03-02-2015, 10:30 AM

Correct use of surrender is a huge tipoff some places. You are never getting action down at those stores anyway so might as well surrender correctly...

**Mickey** · 03-17-2015, 07:15 PM

Originally Posted by Tthree

As the deck gets more T rich the dealer busts the Ace more and surrender is no longer the correct play. That is usually when you have big bets out. For HILO you surrender if the count is less than +1 (H17). You would have a min bet out. Of course you make your bet and playing decision at separate times so the play may be made at a different count than the bet was made at. You may use an ace neutral count and have a big bet out due to the excess aces left rather than a high playing count. So your bet and the play are only somewhat related.

Got it. Thanks, T3!