To Hit or Not to Hit

**AnabelleT** · 03-01-2015, 07:00 AM

This is about 16 against a 10 or A.

I'm sure this has been talked about to death here but I couldn't find a discussion.

Where I play they don't allow surrender, so I have to hit or stay on a 16 against a 10 or A.

I've been hitting my 16s because Mike Shackleford and others suggest you have the best odds hitting, but recently I read a book by Sam Barrington and what he wrote made sense so now I'm a bit confused

He says to never hit on a 16 because if you hit on a 16 you'll win 25.23% of the time, bust 69.31% of the time, and push 5.46% of the time for a net loss of 44.08% of the time. If you stand on 16 you win 29.01% of the time, and lose 70.99% of the time for a net loss of 41.98%. So by standing on 16 instead of taking a hit, you cut your losses by 2.1%

What do you guys say?

**marriedputter** · 03-01-2015, 07:14 AM

Originally Posted by AnabelleT

This is about 16 against a 10 or A.

I'm sure this has been talked about to death here but I couldn't find a discussion.

Where I play they don't allow surrender, so I have to hit or stay on a 16 against a 10 or A.

I've been hitting my 16s because Mike Shackleford and others suggest you have the best odds hitting, but recently I read a book by Sam Barrington and what he wrote made sense so now I'm a bit confused

He says to never hit on a 16 because if you hit on a 16 you'll win 25.23% of the time, bust 69.31% of the time, and push 5.46% of the time for a net loss of 44.08% of the time. If you stand on 16 you win 29.01% of the time, and lose 70.99% of the time for a net loss of 41.98%. So by standing on 16 instead of taking a hit, you cut your losses by 2.1%

What do you guys say?

Well, if you're counting cards, you typically only hit when the count is less than 0 and stand when the count is above 0. This is easy to do because you don't even need the true count for this play. You can just use the running count. Of course, as others have reminded me, if you think that you are already drawing heat, this may be a play that they watch out for.
It may be better to do the same move every time to help protect your cover. If you do that, then standing would be better. This way, you could stand on the high counts when there is a lot of money out there (which is what you're supposed to do based on the count) and stand when your minimum bet is out there (wrong choice mathematically, but you have the minimum bet out).
In the end, the wrong move with 16 vs. 10 costs you VERY little money. But I would be consistent according to the count unless the heat is on you. I assume and hope that you are counting, but if you are not, you should hit 16 vs. 10 every time.

Bottom line:
RC/TC < 0, hit
RC/TC > 0, stand
Worried about heat, always stand
Not counting, always hit

**Aslan** · 03-01-2015, 07:29 AM

I once cleared a table in AC because when questioned I told my table mates that I never hit 16 vs dealer 10. I was using "don't hit 16" as inexpensive camo.

I think you can surmise from BS that always hitting 16 vs dealer 10 must be the better play. Maybe someone has the math to prove it one way or the other, but why would hitting 16 vs 10 stand up all these years as basic strategy for 1, 2, 6, and 8 deck games, both S17 and H17, only to be shot down by MS's calculation? I'm assuming he is wrong. Card counting, of course, is a different consideration.

**Norm** · 03-01-2015, 07:46 AM

I don't generally favor the concept of book-burning. But, there are exceptions.

**Smoke8** · 03-01-2015, 07:58 AM

Originally Posted by Aslan

I once cleared a table in AC because when questioned I told my table mates that I never hit 16 vs dealer 10. I was using "don't hit 16" as inexpensive camo.

I think you can surmise from BS that always hitting 16 vs dealer 10 must be the better play. Maybe someone has the math to prove it one way or the other, but why would hitting 16 vs 10 stand up all these years as basic strategy for 1, 2, 6, and 8 deck games, both S17 and H17, only to be shot down by MS's calculation? I'm assuming he is wrong. Card counting, of course, is a different consideration.

Both Standing and Hitting 16 vs 10, 16 vs A, have a negative expectation. Off the top, the correct BS play is to "Hit", it is like splitting hairs compared to :Standing". But, to hit is the right decision. After the first round,it's all about TC and Index play.

**AnabelleT** · 03-01-2015, 08:39 AM

CORRECTION: the author says to NEVER hit a 16 against a dealer Up-Card of 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace.

Because ...

if you hit on a 16 you'll win 25.23% of the time, bust 69.31% of the time, and push 5.46% of the time for a net loss of 44.08% of the time. If you stand on 16 you win 29.01% of the time, and lose 70.99% of the time for a net loss of 41.98%. So by standing on 16 instead of taking a hit, you cut your losses by 2.1%

If this funny math? I'm not a math person. It seems to make sense to me. Does it really matter that much either way?

Thank you for the responses so far!!

**Norm** · 03-01-2015, 08:43 AM

I've never heard of this guy. But, if he says that, he's an idiot.

**NotEnoughHeat** · 03-01-2015, 09:18 AM

Hmm, it seems a little strange the for hitting the only outcomes given are 'win' 'bust' and 'push'. There will times where you don't bust but still lose, especially against a dealer 10 when you draw a 2 or 3.

**NotEnoughHeat** · 03-01-2015, 09:22 AM

I'd also like to add that some BS charts will have a little note telling you to stay 3 card 16s v 10. If you think about some of the likely RC's of just that hand, it makes sense.

**DSchles** · 03-01-2015, 09:27 AM

Quick answer: Sam Barrington is brain-dead. No electrical impulses whatsoever. I hope you didn't actually buy the book, but just wasted a few minutes reading it.

If you'd like the proper expectations for all BS plays, you can find them in many places on the Internet, and in Appendix A of BJA3. Here are the numbers for 16 v. 10, 6-deck:

T,6 Stand: –0.540954; Hit: –0.534676
9,7 Stand: –0.536809; Hit: –0.535392

Don

**marriedputter** · 03-01-2015, 11:25 AM

Originally Posted by moses

MP nailed it. Depending on the count I can run a sim and show comparison results. Not sure about always standing if worried about heat. I would think they would expect a person to hit. Seems a bit costly for an AP wanting them to think they're non AP.

I would think that consistently standing on 16 would not be that unusual for a ploppy. At least where I play, hitting vs. standing a 16 is about as divided as an election between Al Gore and George Bush.
Therefore, if I were a pit boss or EITS, I would think that this play would be on the opposite side of splitting 10s with respect to their list of concerns. I'm sure that there will be those that disagree with me though. The cost however should be minimal based on what I have read in many places.