Where is the long run?

[bigplayer]

Why is it that I have never heard anyone put a quantifiable definition to the term "long run"?

There is one, it's called N0 (N-Zero). The long-run can be measured for any game or any statistical certainty you choose.

[SiMi]

bigDadddy910

I've been writing a lengthy paper on N0, which attempts to answer your question by VERY carefully explaining N0. Here's the definition of N0 from my paper:

"N0- The number of rounds of Blackjack that must be played under given favorable conditions with a specific Bet Ramp such that the Accumulated Expected Value (AEV) equals one Accumulated Standard Deviation (ASD). In other words, the number of rounds of Advantage Play Blackjack that must be properly played in a certain game to have an 84%probability of NOT being behind."

I don't know if 84% probability is what you're looking for. If not, you can calculate the number of rounds required for ANY probability that interests you.

Good Variance!
SiMi

[Stealth]

bigDadddy910

I've been writing a lengthy paper on N0, which attempts to answer your question by VERY carefully explaining N0. Here's the definition of N0 from my paper:

"N0- The number of rounds of Blackjack that must be played under given favorable conditions with a specific Bet Ramp such that the Accumulated Expected Value (AEV) equals one Accumulated Standard Deviation (ASD). In other words, the number of rounds of Advantage Play Blackjack that must be properly played in a certain game to have an 84%probability of NOT being behind."

I don't know if 84% probability is what you're looking for. If not, you can calculate the number of rounds required for ANY probability that interests you.

Good Variance!
SiMi

I would suggest you consider that the long run is better defined by the number of rounds required for your EV to overcome 2 negative standard deviations (4 X N0). About 95% probability of being at or near EV. My experience with team play says that N0 for 2 SD is a more conservative and appropriate view.