Dealer A (not BJ) vs 16

[eskimo68]

I guess we all have these moments when we start to question whether the charts we are using are correct or not. Usually you go through the math and realize straying would be bad .

One of my recent favourites has been the dealer showing an Ace and not having blackjack. And you sit there with 16 on every hand and suffer. And of course the dealer bust more often than he should. And you start to wonder if even staying on 15 might be a good idea...

Anyway, this is a position that I never seem to find in google. And I'm pretty convinced the difference between hitting and staying on 16 is quite minimal. So let's assume something common like 4 decks and dealer must hit on soft 17. I'll just do some fast math from my head (means I'll say 37% instead of 36.5% etc) and let's see what some chart wizard comes up with compared to it?

So if I hit I will survive about 37% of the time. Of those I win roughly 50%. Might be higher with even money... hmm.
If I stay the dealer will win 83%? Even when we know the dealer does not have BJ?

I think the reason I start thinking about staying is because I usually do a fast single deck count in my head. Which would give me 31% wins for the dealer, 37% continue more than one card and 31% "not possible face cards". And then I probably overestimate the dealer busts. And always forget the even money. Roughly my thinking then goes something like 37% not bust if I hit, of those I lose maybe half so 18 wins/100. Fairly close to 17 wins/100 if I stay.

But, like I said, this is a tough cookie to find using google so maybe someone here would do the proper math and put the issue to rest. Or prove it's a matter of player preference? Although the only time I execute according to preference is if it's guaranteedly my last game and I just decide to stay on everything dubious like 13 vs 2 and alike.

[Three]

4 deck H17 composition dependent analyzer off the top:
T,6vA:
EV hitting -53.9%
EV standing -59.76%
Hit, not even close

9,7vA:
EC hitting -53.69%
EV standing -59.29%
Hit, not even close

Now 8,8 isn't really a total of 16 for strategy purposes but for complete analysis here it is
8,8vA:
Split -51.62%
Hit -53.63%
Stand -59.29%
Splitting is the best decision with hitting the next best by a modest amount but not even close to standing which is by far the worst.

[eskimo68]

Guess there's a reason it's hard to google this one. Too stupid to stand

So I end up with my old way of thinking... The right way to fix your brain when you start to question your strategy is to play top notch for a few hours and convince yourself again.

Thanks for the help.

[Smartblackjack]

Guess there's a reason it's hard to google this one. Too stupid to stand

So I end up with my old way of thinking... The right way to fix your brain when you start to question your strategy is to play top notch for a few hours and convince yourself again.

Thanks for the help.

When you have 16 vs an ace you will lose most of those hands weather or not you hit or stay expect a loser in this situation and when you hit the 4 or 5 and win be happy. You will lose less hitting the hand and it is not even a close play. On a $100 bet it is a $15 mistake staying.

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