I guess we all have these moments when we start to question whether the charts we are using are correct or not. Usually you go through the math and realize straying would be bad .
One of my recent favourites has been the dealer showing an Ace and not having blackjack. And you sit there with 16 on every hand and suffer. And of course the dealer bust more often than he should. And you start to wonder if even staying on 15 might be a good idea...
Anyway, this is a position that I never seem to find in google. And I'm pretty convinced the difference between hitting and staying on 16 is quite minimal. So let's assume something common like 4 decks and dealer must hit on soft 17. I'll just do some fast math from my head (means I'll say 37% instead of 36.5% etc) and let's see what some chart wizard comes up with compared to it?
So if I hit I will survive about 37% of the time. Of those I win roughly 50%. Might be higher with even money... hmm.
If I stay the dealer will win 83%? Even when we know the dealer does not have BJ?
I think the reason I start thinking about staying is because I usually do a fast single deck count in my head. Which would give me 31% wins for the dealer, 37% continue more than one card and 31% "not possible face cards". And then I probably overestimate the dealer busts. And always forget the even money. Roughly my thinking then goes something like 37% not bust if I hit, of those I lose maybe half so 18 wins/100. Fairly close to 17 wins/100 if I stay.
But, like I said, this is a tough cookie to find using google so maybe someone here would do the proper math and put the issue to rest. Or prove it's a matter of player preference? Although the only time I execute according to preference is if it's guaranteedly my last game and I just decide to stay on everything dubious like 13 vs 2 and alike.
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