Estimate how many hands you play during your blackjack career.

[bigplayer]

I base EV estimates on time played and speed. I have two speeds, Fast and Slow (Fast is heads up or 1 other player, Slow is more than 1 other player) I never play full tables. So fast is about 150 hands per hour, slow I have at 80 hands per hour. Then I just plug in the time and the speed code and game (Bad, Normal, Good) and the numbers just fall into place automatically. I use a very conservative estimate so over the long haul I should be able to match or exceed EV if I'm playing strongly. I does take a long time for your results and EV to start to track each other...a very long time. In between there's a ton of noise.

[seriousplayer]

I base EV estimates on time played and speed. I have two speeds, Fast and Slow (Fast is heads up or 1 other player, Slow is more than 1 other player) I never play full tables. So fast is about 150 hands per hour, slow I have at 80 hands per hour. Then I just plug in the time and the speed code and game (Bad, Normal, Good) and the numbers just fall into place automatically. I use a very conservative estimate so over the long haul I should be able to match or exceed EV if I'm playing strongly. I does take a long time for your results and EV to start to track each other...a very long time. In between there's a ton of noise.

What do you mean by a very long time in terms of years? I don't think a proficient card counter will take 20 years to surpass EV. If it does than the count might be doing something wrong.