Hey KJ, Mr. CAA is talking about you again

[KJ]

Yes, I saw the blog last week, 21forme. But thanx for trying to stir up trouble.

I have to say that I completely agree with the part about players taking consolation in the fact that their recent loses are so statistically improbable. I remember shortly after I joined the community and began posting, back on BJinfo, I posted about a downswing that I had gone through. The first response was from one of the ‘math guys’ to tell me just how unlikely such a run was.

In all honesty, I couldn’t figure out if he was telling me he didn’t believe my numbers because of how unlikely the scenario was or whether he was saying I just had the misfortune of some extremely bad ‘luck’. So I didn’t quite know how to respond. If he was saying the scenario was so unlikely that he was having trouble believing it…well that made two of us. But guess what…It just happened. If he was saying I should take some consolation because it was such an extremely unlikely run, well that doesn’t help. That doesn’t bring back my losses.

I believe a player needs to understand about variance and standard deviation, and what to expect and what is extreme. But finding consolation after the fact doesn’t do much. That’s like telling someone who was just hit by lightning and suffering painful injuries, how very rare it is. That just isn’t going to make him feel a whole lot better.

As for the rest, I am not taking it personally. There seems to be a common element of much of James’s writings. He always seems to fit in some kind of ‘put down’ to card counters. He likes to remind us, how much more advanced he is. And strangely, he seems to take it almost personally, that some players ‘choose’ to remain at this level. As if it is some sort of insult to him, that some of us, still enjoy playing and winning by this method. I happen to really enjoy making a living by this most elementary technique. I am not only not ashamed to call myself a card counter, but rather proud of it.

[BlackJackAgain]

IMO the purpose of checking where you are on the curve is:

1. It might be worth checking if there is a flaw in your game
No, this does not mean that if you are 3 SDs down you MUST be doing something wrong, but in a large (many hands) sample you might want to re-examine your game.

2. If the poor results are all with one dealer/one store the game you may have been cheated (indeed, odds are you weren't - but the possibility is out there).
If I am over 3+ SD down at a store over a reasonable sample (x,000 hands), with no other information (such as other people's results) I might cut my losses even if I see no obvious signs of cheating. This will happen very rarely.

D.

Yes, I saw the blog last week, 21forme. But thanx for trying to stir up trouble.

I have to say that I completely agree with the part about players taking consolation in the fact that their recent loses are so statistically improbable. I remember shortly after I joined the community and began posting, back on BJinfo, I posted about a downswing that I had gone through. The first response was from one of the ‘math guys’ to tell me just how unlikely such a run was.

In all honesty, I couldn’t figure out if he was telling me he didn’t believe my numbers because of how unlikely the scenario was or whether he was saying I just had the misfortune of some extremely bad ‘luck’. So I didn’t quite know how to respond. If he was saying the scenario was so unlikely that he was having trouble believing it…well that made two of us. But guess what…It just happened. If he was saying I should take some consolation because it was such an extremely unlikely run, well that doesn’t help. That doesn’t bring back my losses.

I believe a player needs to understand about variance and standard deviation, and what to expect and what is extreme. But finding consolation after the fact doesn’t do much. That’s like telling someone who was just hit by lightning and suffering painful injuries, how very rare it is. That just isn’t going to make him feel a whole lot better.

As for the rest, I am not taking it personally. There seems to be a common element of much of James’s writings. He always seems to fit in some kind of ‘put down’ to card counters. He likes to remind us, how much more advanced he is. And strangely, he seems to take it almost personally, that some players ‘choose’ to remain at this level. As if it is some sort of insult to him, that some of us, still enjoy playing and winning by this method. I happen to really enjoy making a living by this most elementary technique. I am not only not ashamed to call myself a card counter, but rather proud of it.