NOTE: My NFL advisory sports service has begun the season with a 5-0 record. Four of my five wins have been underdogs winning outright and covering the closing spread by between nine to 20 1/2 points. I have yet to be behind on teh point spread in ANY of my selections this year (and trailed on the scoreboard just twice: 0-3 in the Titan Week One win over the Chiefs and 3-7 in the Chargers Week Two win over the Seahawks).
You can find out more about my service by e-mailing me at: [email protected] or checking out my on-line site at: www.dangordonsportpicks.net Two VERY ‘Misunderstood’ Games of Week Two
To be a winning sports handicapper, one not only needs to be able to predict that which has yet to happen, but one must also be able to understand FULLY that which has happened.
Two teams that are now considered ‘surprise’ teams—the 2-0 (against the spread and outright) Buffalo Bills and the (1-1 outright and 2-0 against the spread) San Diego Chargers—play this week after each come off largely considered ‘impressive wins’ in Week Two. Both teams won last week and each covered the closing line by over a touchdown. Let us see exactly how ‘impressive’ the Bill and Charger Week Two wins were.
Dolphins-Bills
Very early in Week Two, I considered taking the Dolphins against the Bills in Week Two. Even though I definitely considered the Dolphins the better team and could also GET points on them in a revenge game (Dolphins lost both 2013 games against the Bills), in my early handicapping of this game I decided to pass on the Dolphins in this game.
In their prior game, the Dolphins had defeated the Patriots at home in a game they much considered their ‘Super Bowl.’ In that game, the Dolphins showed total domination in the second half (23-0 in points, 14-2 in first downs, 221-33 in yards, and held Tom Brady and the seemingly strong Patriot passing attack to 0.3 yards per pass attempt). Little mentioned in game stories lauding the Dolphins was the strong heat/humidity that existed in that game. This heat/humidity seemed to ‘melt’ the Patriots in the second half (after a first half they mostly dominated).
Further, the week after their 2013 ‘Super Bowl’ home win over the Patriots, the Dolphins were shut out in Buffalo, 0-19: also in a revenge game for the Dolphins.
Going back to the 2011 season, AFC East teams had lost/not covered the spread in the game after defeating the perennial divisional champ Pats the three prior times (including a Jet 9-49 loss in Cincinnati in Week Eight after a win over the Pats).
By contrast, the Bill Week One win came against the Bears: a non-conference foe. (In that game, Bear mistakes were the biggest factor in the Bill win.)
Home teams in divisional showdowns often ‘show up’ in big ways. This figured to be true for the Bills in this Dolphin game which was an early season ‘showdown’ between 1-0 clubs. Thus, in this game, the Bills figured to ‘show up’ and the Dolphins strongly figured to ‘be flat.’
Also important was that each of these clubs are within what I call the NFL ‘parity range’: those rated with between a D+ and B- range (Bills were a D+ club and the Dolphins a C one). In such competitive games, emotional edges often have great meaning and are often the key factor in these games.
With the above in mind, the Bill 29-10 win was not that surprising. Despite some rather strange (including Dolphin 23-13 first down edge) stats in this game, the Bills DID control the action at the key points. The two times that the Dolphins drew within a touchdown (3-9 and 10-16), the Bills ‘answered’ with immediate scores (102 yard TD return and a 6 play—77 yard TD drive). After Bills increased their lead to 23-10 with 13 seconds left in the third quarter, the game result was never in doubt. The Bill 2-0 takeaway edge was typical of a game in which a team does not show up (Dolphins).
Something else to consider was that outside of the above-mentioned 6-77 Bill touchdown drive, they never went over 49 yards on any other drive in the game and had to settle for five field goals in the game (and the just mentioned touchdown drive was the only Bill offensive one of the game) on drives to or past the Dolphin 20 yard line.
Thus, this win did NOT overly impress me and caused me to make zero change in the Bill letter power rating. It was D+ before this win and is still D+ after it. It is not quite yet time for the Bills to print up playoff tickets (in what would be their first playoff appearance in 15 years). The Dolphin letter power rating also remained unchanged at C.
Seahawks-Chargers
Even though these clubs were NOT both located within the NFL D+ to B- letter power rating ‘parity range’ (Chargers were a C team and the Seahawks a B one), the emotional ‘set-up’ of this game also decided its outcome: as did another factor: the very hot/humid weather.
My service had the Chargers as a small play winner in this game. Even though the Seahawks were DEFINITELY the much superior team in this game (and would probably win at least 75% of games between these clubs), the ‘emotional deck’ was stacked against them. If the Seahawk coach, Pete (AKA Social Mickey Mouse) Carroll COULD get his club ‘up’ for this road game against a non-conference foe, he should have been given instant strong consideration as coach of the year, if not the decade.
Consider:1) The Seahawks are the defending champs. Right after their Super Bowl rout (a definite fluke/positive flux win) win over the Broncos, the Seahawks were anointed ‘one of the best defensive teams ever’ and seen by many NFL pundits as ‘having the best chance of being a repeat Super Bowl champ’ since the 2004 Patriots.
2) The Seahawk Week One nationally televised 36-16 home win over the Packers (certainly and correctly seen as a superior team to the Week Two Seahawk opponent: the Chargers). This win did much to reinforce the notion of the Seahawk greatness, especially on defense. It did much to convince the skeptics how ‘wrong and stupid’ they were to challenge ‘the gospel’: the Seahawks were the best team in the NFL, their defense was by far the NFL’s best, and how (even in the present NFL where it is basically ‘illegal’ to play defense) ‘good defense’ wins titles—PERIOD!
3) Following this ‘prove we are the best team in the NFL’ win, the Seahawks now were slated to go on the road to Dog Town (AKA San Diego) to play a non-conference foe. A foe the Seahawks had blown off their Seattle home field by an easy 41-14 count in the pre-season.
4) In addition, the Seahawks had a Super Bowl ‘rematch’ awaiting them the next (this) week against the Broncos (a team that got a small measure of revenge via a 21-16 pre-season win over the Seahawks).
5) Finally, this game would be played in extremely hot/humid weather: 100 degree weather with close to 90 percent humidity. Getting ‘up’ to play the often violent game of football in circumstances 1-4 can be tough even without this handicap. Playing such a game in a virtual sauna bath (and wearing heat attracting dark jerseys) makes it virtually impossible. It is like walking around in a coating of mud and trying to hit people.Coming off a loss and coming home to play the defending champs (and in somewhat of a revenge game) made playing such a ‘bad weather’ game far easier for the Chargers.
It was thus not surprising that the Chargers much controlled this game in their 30-21 win. In fact, a plus I see in the Seahawk long-term favor is that despite the Charger domination (scoring on all four first half possessions, a 42-18 clock edge, a 75-40 in plays run edge, and a 26-14 first down edge), the Seahawks had two chances to win the game with fourth quarter possessions down by 21-27.
There will be virtually no other 2014 Seahawk games in which they will as emotionally/physically ‘handcuffed’ as they were in last week’s game in Dog Town. That they had a decent chance to win there in the late going despite this ‘handcuffing’ perhaps shows a good future for them this season.
When one considers the above, one can see the total absurdity of many media front-runners (last week calling the Seahawk defense ‘one of the best ever’) saying how the Seahawk defense (especially Grandpa Rastaferian—Richard Sherman) ‘was exposed.’ This week’s home game against the Broncos (who have a better offense than the Chargers) after this loss will say much more if the Seahawk defense REALLY has been ‘exposed.’
The major post game bragging of Charger front running quarterback Phillip Rivers seems much premature. The celebratory double back-flip done in post-game glee on the Charger home field by my former diabetes nurse (and avid Charger fan) Smearing Horse Manure also seems quite premature.
Like the Bills, the Charger letter power rating stayed the same. It was C before this game and C after. The Seahawk B pre-game letter power rating also remains unchanged.
Once again, it is important to understand the FULL picture of a game in order to understand how to handicap future games of that team.
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