NFL - Week # 3 - Suggestions

[Math Demon]

Hello Everyone! I'm looking for suggestions for NFL Week # 3 games. I have $264 right now in my sportsbook account and currently have a $1200 rollover req't.

If I guess randomly and win half of my bets every week, I would have satisfied the $1200 rollover after 6 weeks. Each week, I will spread out the remaining funds into 6-12 equal bets. All bets would be subjected to the 9% vig, leaving me with roughly $150 after 6 weeks.

I'm looking for suggestions based on the NFL lines below. All suggestions are welcome, but please justify and elaborate on your suggestions. If you follow one or two teams, and know enough about them, please make a case for why they would win (or lose) and by how much.


Mr. Tthree was kind enough to provide these a few days ago:

... Try NE -13.5, 49ers -2.5, Dallas -1, Green Bay +1.5, Car -3 ...

Thanks very much! Here are lines for the NFL Week # 3 games:

NFL - Week # 3.jpg

[Brock W]

I would calculate the no vig line from pinnacles numbers and then plug that into one of the free half point calculators online to get probabilities. From there if it is a coin flip I'll take a dog, a home team, or an under. If that is not worth your time just bet the games where you are getting a better price than pinnacle offers and that will do better than random guessing.

[Gamblor]

Two Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Weeks:
CIN -7 over Ten - Cincy is a significantly better team than Tenessee.
CAR -3 over Pit - Liked Carolina pre-season last year (picked them on the over on season wins, along with Cincy, felt both had a lot of young blue chip players). Layed off the first two games this year, concerned by the rib injury to Newton, but week 1 showed they are ok w/o him, and week 2 showed they are ok with him.

Min +10.5 over NO - Lot of points for a NO teams that hasn't been hitting on all cylinders, and Min has shown some flashes this year. Should be fine in the dome.

[Nyne]

In line with the post I just made in your other thread, you will maximize your EV by maximizing variance. That means taking a long shot bet and betting your full stake on that single bet. If you lose, you have satisfied the wagering requirement. If you win, you will probably have more money in your account than the remaining wagering requirement, so you could then make several small bets to complete the requirement.

[Math Demon]

In line with the post I just made in your other thread, you will maximize your EV by maximizing variance. That means taking a long shot bet and betting your full stake on that single bet. If you lose, you have satisfied the wagering requirement. If you win, you will probably have more money in your account than the remaining wagering requirement, so you could then make several small bets to complete the requirement.

Thanks Nyne! I followed your advice on betting on the long shot for the $100 freeplay. Followed Tthree's advice for "total points over 46."

I ended up betting all $100 for Falcons-6 and Totals Over 46, winning $264 of free money. I had bet some long shots this weekend like a 8-game parlay which will pay a $1 bet with 150k.

I may parlay Gamblor's suggestion of CIN-7 and CAR-3. I had already pick those teams on some 7-game & 8-game $1-$2 parlays. I have bet the rest on 9 individual matchups for $26 each. Plus some parlays. I still have $18 to play with. I may bet that on CIN & CAR.


Thanks everyone! I'm new at this. I don't usually have time to watch "NFL Live," or "Inside the NFL", or the myriad NFL shows. I just starting to learn.

[Gamblor]

CLE +2 over Balt - Getting Gordon back in team facilities might energize Cleveland. And can't say Balt is a clearly better team than Cleveland, who have been playing surprisingly decent.

[Nyne]

The primary benefit of betting a long shot is related to the fact that you will usually lose everything and thus not have to complete the wager requirement. If you don't bet your full stake on a single bet, you don't get that benefit, so long shots no longer help you any.

[Brock W]

The primary benefit of betting a long shot is related to the fact that you will usually lose everything and thus not have to complete the wager requirement. If you don't bet your full stake on a single bet, you don't get that benefit, so long shots no longer help you any.

I understand why that works on a loss rebate.. but isn't a rollover requirement different? do they give you the bonus if you bust out before meeting the wagering requirement?

[Nyne]

If you lose your stake, the remaining wagering requirement and associated EV loss is eliminated, which is like a loss rebate. If there is currently $1200 in wagering remaining and the house edge is 5% (I'm guessing), that has a cost of $60. If we wager $264 on a long shot, we either win and then need to complete an additional $936 in wagers, or we lose and have to complete no more wagers. Wiping out the $936 in wagering saves us $46.80. This $46.80 is equivalent to an 18% loss rebate on the $264 bet. We maximize the value of the rebate by maximizing how often we collect it, so if the house edge is assumed to be the same, then we want bets that lose often, which means high payoff odds. But for it to work, we have to bet everything on one bet.

[Math Demon]

If you lose your stake, the remaining wagering requirement and associated EV loss is eliminated, which is like a loss rebate. If there is currently $1200 in wagering remaining and the house edge is 5% (I'm guessing), that has a cost of $60. If we wager $264 on a long shot, we either win and then need to complete an additional $936 in wagers, or we lose and have to complete no more wagers. Wiping out the $936 in wagering saves us $46.80. This $46.80 is equivalent to an 18% loss rebate on the $264 bet. We maximize the value of the rebate by maximizing how often we collect it, so if the house edge is assumed to be the same, then we want bets that lose often, which means high payoff odds. But for it to work, we have to bet everything on one bet.

I'm sorry, Nyne! I don't I understand what you were saying here in this post.

I understood your other post about betting everything on a high variance bet on the $100 freeplay. Your thinking, I believe, was:

1. if the $100 freeplay bet was NOT used, it will be lost anyway.

2. if only a portion of the $100 was used, 12x$100 or $1200 will still be the rollover req't, so the $100 should be used for wagering.

3. if the $100 freeplay bet was LOST, no harm, no foul. I did NOT have any money on sportsbook anyway. Same case if I lost. And no more effort needs to be done.

4. So it all boils down to the bets available. With a $100 freeplay being limited to one NFL Thursday night game, I was limited to bet spread (-110, 100 to win 91), totals (-110), betting the underdog to win, Tampa Bay (+235, 100 to win 135), or a 2-part parlay of ATL-6, Over 46 (2.64, 100 to win 164). I chose that last option (with 25% theoretical chance of winning), although the EV was less than the spread bet.

I looked at the stats and figured that ATL was playing at home, in a dome, ATL QB Ryan was playing well, TB QB was struggling, Devin Hester was a new addition ... I figured I had way more that 50% chance to win the ATL-6, way more than 50% for totals over 46.

Atlanta run up the score to 56-0 before TB scored the last 14 points. It hit and I ended up with $264.
___

This weekend, with very limited knowledge of NFL betting (or following NFL teams, for that matter), I started with $264 balance and $1200 rollover req't.

The plan was to place 9-10 $26 bets and some really long-shot parlays.

I ended up 9-4 for Week #3 (including ATL-6, SD to win, DAL-2, CHI to win, NO-10, CIN-6, IND-7, ATL total over 46, CHI total over 45).
__

The biggest disappointment was CAR, but no one really could have predicted that upset. CAR was definitely the better team on paper. CAR loss was disappointing not only because I had a CAR-3, I also had a $15 to win $79 riding on that last game, when CIN and DAL already covered.

"Who had the Pittsburgh Steelers gashing the Carolina Panthers for 264 rushing yards in an 18-point road win?" http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...reads-and-odds
__

I also threw away $15 on different 8- to 10-game parlays with $1-to 8k to $1-to-150k long shots... but, hey, I'm still learning.

Anyway, I increased the balance from $264 to $278 with 20% of the rollover satisfied. Hopefully, I get better at this. And if I get much more consistent at this, I would start putting in some non-trivial funds.


Thanks Tthree, Nyne, Gamblor and everyone else who tried to help!


NFL - Week # 3B - Graded Bets - 2014-09-22 (blurred).jpg

[Gamblor]

Sorry about Carolina. Avoided picking them the first two weeks because I feared a hobbled mobile QB Newton would get frustrated and begin moping when he's down by 3 points. Of course mopey Cam Newton decides to show up Sunday.

[Three]

At least he didn't listen to Mr Tthree. That guy did pretty bad this week. LOL At least the first advice got him a BR to play with. Earlt season football is a tough one for me. I usually don't even bother. There is great value in the lines if you can spot them but I was better at betting the teams after enough stats than finding the value in new teams that haven't had the public adjust to the changes from last year. In this age of NFL parody teams change a lot from 1 year to the next.

[Math Demon]

Sorry about Carolina. Avoided picking them the first two weeks because I feared a hobbled mobile QB Newton would get frustrated and begin moping when he's down by 3 points. Of course mopey Cam Newton decides to show up Sunday.

Hi Gamblor! No need to be sorry about anything. I had already bet CAR-3 before I even read your post. Your post just reinforced what I had already decided. CAR really looks like the better team. However, I NEVER even paid attention to injuries before this week. I'm so green!

Because of 14 games, I had a very short time to look at stats, injuries, and then make betting decisions. Now I try to spread a little bit more analysis time during the whole week. I record "NFL Gameday" and 13-14 "NFL Game Rewind" (30 min. highlights of each game). I'll wait as late as possible to avail of latest info on injuries.