ASM machines Question

[miadebaba]

Hello, I have been on this forum for a long time and finally decided to register and join the community. I was doing really well at a big casino until about 2 months ago from a long vacation. I lost 8 out of the 10 sessions I played there. I have been noticing that the ASM machines are producing clumps of cards much more often than before. I.e. 4,5,6 often stick together and face cards follow face cards. Also aces tend to stick together more often. I.e. Dealer face card 4, then Ace, Ace and Ace so dealer gets 17. On my side, after a streak of small cards came out and say I get 3,7 for a double down with a big bet, I am more often to get another small card. This is more noticeable when the table is full. I usually play with 3~4 other players at the table .The past two months have been very discouraging but I kepted discipline and leave the casino whenever my cash for the session is less than 10 times my big bet. I also talk to the dealers and players and they told me they noticed the same thing. They noticed card clumping. Since randomization is very important to counters, if they were using incomplete shuffles or even worse clumping cards in certain order (shuffle masters are programmable) that is more favorable to the house, how would I adjust my betting strategy to get an edge? Conditions are 8d, S17, DAS, LS, 80%pen. My bet spread is 1-10. Because I always tip dealer and talk to them and other players when I play, I never get heat over there. I especially want to hear from Bigplayer, norm, ZenkinG, Tthree. Thank yo all.

Feel free to look an article I came across online and tell me what you guys think! Yes. Clumping of cards of similar value
http://navisino.com/kingskorner/main...s&ArticleID=20

[Nyne]

Humans are very good at detecting patterns. Even when there aren't any there. It's random.

[Dieter]

(shuffle masters are programmable)

Did you happen to recognize the model? (MD2? MD3?) Has the wash procedure changed?

[miadebaba]

Did you happen to recognize the model? (MD2? MD3?) Has the wash procedure changed?

I saw them change the box couple of times when it got stuck too often. The dealer also complained about getting red lights very often.

[BJGenius007]

I notice group clumping, too. This is my observation and a pending solution.

I play regularly in two casinos. Both use ASM. There is one I feel I play like hand shuffling as I played before ASM was invented. In the second casino, the cards are always clumping in five groups. Also there are a lot of red lights in the second casino that I feel it is because ASM can't finish sequencing the shoe. Sometimes I overheard the dealer told the pit boss that the machine stuck at 80%, 85% or 90%.

I find in the 2nd casino, most of the times a shoe is composed of the rotation of the five groups. With different dosage of face cards, the goal is to make counting and Basic Strategy bad. The indication is that no idea ploppies are winning while good BS players are suffering. Like in group 2, the majority card comes from the shoe is 7, 8 or 9. You took any three such cards (most likely you are against upcard 7,8,9 or face), you bust your hand. If dealer upcard is small, you stay, the dealer get 7,8,9 from the shoe and make a hand.

Group 1: {2,3,4} x 6/13, face cards x 5/13, other cards x 2/13 (face card rich clump)

Group 2: {7,8,9} x 6/13, face cards x 3/13, other cards x 4/13 (face card poor clump)

Group 3: {A} x 1/3, face cards x 2/13, other cards x 1/2 (face card poor ace rich clump)

Group 4: {5} x 1/3, face cards x 1/3 or 1/6, other cards x 1/3 or 1/2

Group 5: {6} x 1/3, face cards x 1/2, other cards x 1/6 (face card rich)

For example, cards 2, 3, 4 are clumping together with high dosage of face cards. Making good splits turn bad because entering such a zone, most cards are 2,3,4 and face cards. One indication is that you hit 12 against 2. Even the true count is super negative, you bust more than 50% of the time. Another example is in group 4, ASM is trying to make double on pair of 5 bad.

My pending solution is that play a few shoes, if you see {2,3,4} are stuck together, ace are clumping, six are clumping, do the following:

Don't split pairs of 2, 3, 4, 6.

Don't hit 12 against 2 as well as similar index plays. (High dosage of face cards regardless of TC.)

It will cost you some ev if you are just too paranoid. But if you play the rest right (index play on 11, 10, 9 double and good spread according to TC), you still make most money as you should.

I expect bombshells coming this way. But I welcome discussion and criticism.

[miadebaba]

thank you very much for the reply. I think your observation is very similar to the one i am experiencing. Especially group 4 as you mentioned, double my 5,5 against dealers 5, i often get another small card. But the dealer's hole card is often a small card even another 5 or 6 because of small card clumping. dealers next card would be a continuation of small card (e.g. a 2 and a 3 and another 3 to make a hand of 17 or 18) or the next card for the dealer would be the start of clumps of big cards in which case dealer would get a face card to make a hand of 20 to 21.

[BJGenius007]

thank you very much for the reply. I think your observation is very similar to the one i am experiencing. Especially group 4 as you mentioned, double my 5,5 against dealers 5, i often get another small card. But the dealer's hole card is often a small card even another 5 or 6 because of small card clumping. dealers next card would be a continuation of small card (e.g. a 2 and a 3 and another 3 to make a hand of 17 or 18) or the next card for the dealer would be the start of clumps of big cards in which case dealer would get a face card to make a hand of 20 to 21.

{2,3,4} are in a group. {7,8,9} are in a group. Ace, 5, 6 are alone in their own group. Each group has its primary card(s) mixed with different density of face cards to make Basic Strategy not working. ASM uses gravity to sort out these groups. Basically they push through a desired card from left chamber to right chamber after reading the card's edge. Because the unbalanced face cards and small cards in the five groups, there is a thin layer of tens left on the very top of the shoe on the right chamber. So if you cut at 40% of the shoe from the top, you will finish the shoe with very positive TC.

This assumes the pit boss turns on ASM clumping for the day. In my observation, they turn on clumping on both red and blue decks in holiday to increase profit margins. On weekdays, you will have one regular shoe and one clumping shoe alternated. Just play two or three shoes to see if there is the following pattern. You want to see if 7, 8, 9 are coming together, if ace are clumping together (like six aces in a span of 13 cards), if 6 are clumping together, if 2, 3, 4 are always close to each other.

[miadebaba]

{2,3,4} are in a group. {7,8,9} are in a group. Ace, 5, 6 are alone in their own group. Each group has its primary card(s) mixed with different density of face cards to make Basic Strategy not working. ASM uses gravity to sort out these groups. Basically they push through a desired card from left chamber to right chamber after reading the card's edge. Because the unbalanced face cards and small cards in the five groups, there is a thin layer of tens left on the very top of the shoe on the right chamber. So if you cut at 40% of the shoe from the top, you will finish the shoe with very positive TC.

This assumes the pit boss turns on ASM clumping for the day. In my observation, they turn on clumping on both red and blue decks in holiday to increase profit margins. On weekdays, you will have one regular shoe and one clumping shoe alternated. Just play two or three shoes to see if there is the following pattern. You want to see if 7, 8, 9 are coming together, if ace are clumping together (like six aces in a span of 13 cards), if 6 are clumping together, if 2, 3, 4 are always close to each other.

This makes a lot of sense. I ll definitely spend more time on this before I play next time! Thank you so much!

[bigplayer]

Since randomization is very important to counters, if they were using incomplete shuffles or even worse clumping cards in certain order (shuffle masters are programmable) that is more favorable to the house,

Nonsense. Counters depend on some degree of clumping to get their edge (more big cards in the 2nd half of the shoe). Wong proved 30 years ago that not shuffling between shoes actually helps counters. ASM's use a random number generator to mix the cards. There are a number of slots on a wheel and the RNG randomly selects a slot to stick one card in, it proceeds one card at a time until all 312 cards of the six decks is randomly assigned a slot. Then when dealing it uses a RNG to pick which slot from which a card will be dealt. It's as random as a the RNG is and they cannot be programmed to rig the game to reduce the player advantage without violating the law and creating concrete evidence of cheating. ASM's simply speed up the game. If anything cards dealt from an ASM are vastly more random than than hand shuffled cards. Random does not mean evenly distributed.

[Dieter]

ASM's use a random number generator to mix the cards. There are a number of slots on a wheel and the RNG randomly selects a slot to stick one card in, it proceeds one card at a time until all 312 cards of the six decks is randomly assigned a slot.

Which ASM's use a wheel? (Manufacturer / Model?) I was under the impression most of the ASMs used an elevator.

Not trolling; sincere question.

[miadebaba]

Nonsense. Counters depend on some degree of clumping to get their edge (more big cards in the 2nd half of the shoe). Wong proved 30 years ago that not shuffling between shoes actually helps counters. ASM's use a random number generator to mix the cards. There are a number of slots on a wheel and the RNG randomly selects a slot to stick one card in, it proceeds one card at a time until all 312 cards of the six decks is randomly assigned a slot. Then when dealing it uses a RNG to pick which slot from which a card will be dealt. It's as random as a the RNG is and they cannot be programmed to rig the game to reduce the player advantage without violating the law and creating concrete evidence of cheating. ASM's simply speed up the game. If anything cards dealt from an ASM are vastly more random than than hand shuffled cards. Random does not mean evenly distributed.

big player would you read the article I came across online? http://navisino.com/kingskorner/main...s&ArticleID=20

[RobinHood21]

ASM's use elevators... CSM's use wheels.


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[21forme]

The poker game ASMs use a wheel.