Originally Posted by
Exoter175
All of the above. If you don't have a dedicated owner who is wiling to put the "best" out there, you won't be competitive. Conversely, if you don't have big enough support from your local market and fan base, it'll be nearly impossible for a team to remain competitive enough to draw in "big ticket" free agents. And almost certainly here, you have to consider competitive/non competitive divisions.
The Browns had to wade through the Ravens/Steelers "dominant" years with QB's like Roethlisberger and Flacco in the division.
The Bills had to square up against the Patriots twice a year, which is just rough, and then the Jets who were competitive until the last couple years in that division. Couple that with the resurgence of the Dolphins at least TRYING to go 8-8 or better and improve from the ground up, and that's just a tight division, likely THE tighest.
The Lions have been a conundrum until the last few years. They've managed to draft well and hit free agency well in the last 4 or 5 years, and with an aging Bears team in the division, they've certainly improved despite having to face Rodgers twice a year which are certainly their most anxious games year after year.
The Redskins get it pretty badly with Dallas, New York, and Philly trading off every couple years on who the "real" team is, which should have had them enter that race for the first time in a long time with RG3 and/or Cousins at the helm, but they just can't seem to stay healthy both physically and in comparison to the salary cap, and BUILD upon each roster.
The Raiders? Shoot. You've got Three VERY strong AFC teams in that division already with Denver, Kansas City, and San Diego. With two GREAT QB's at the helm, and likely the most remarkable Running Back in the league on the "other" team. Oakland also suffered from poor ownership, poor drafting, and a poor fanbase.
The Rams didn't always have it bad, they've just made poor free agent/drafting decisions and keep taking 2 steps backward for one step forward. When they were the "Greatest Game on Turf" they pretty much had everything going for them, with the world in their palms. Fast forward a decade and you no longer have your star QB, your two star wide outs, your star Running Back, and the fan base just disappeared, and now you're competiting with Oakland for moving to LA.
As for the Jaguars, that one's a little interesting, you could pretty much count on the Colts to "be there" year in and year out, and for a couple years the Texans weren't half bad either, but with the Titans being virtually nonexistent most years in the division, you figure they'd have a shot at "something". When you don't draft well, however, and let all of your "star" guys walk in free agency, you're going to run into this problem.
Lets look at a few of those wonderful Jaguar Drafts.
Byron Leftwitch 2003 1st round draft pick, played witht hem for 4 seasons (lol)
Reggie Williams 2004 1st round draft pick , played with them for 5 seasons (lol)
Matt Jones 2005 1st round pick, played with them for 4 seasons (lol)
Marcades Lewis 2006 1st round draft pick, 9 seasons and counting with them (good job)
Reggie Nelson 2007 1st round draft pick, played with them for 3 seasons (ouch), the guy they traded him for, David Jones, spent 2 seasons with Jacksonville before moving on
Derrick Harvey 2008 1st round draft pick, played with them for 3 seaons (ouch)
Eugene Monroe 2009 1st round draft pick, played with them for 5 seasons, traded for Baltimore's 2014 4th and 5th round draft picks which turned into two "bubble" guys on their roster, big mistake
Tyson Alualu 2010 1st round draft pick, 5 seasons and counting with them (good job)
Blaine Gabbert 2011 1st round draft pick, played with them for 3 seaons and got traded to the 49ers for a 6th round pick in 2014, which turned into Luke Bowanko, who started 14 games for them at Center last year.
Justin Blackmon 2012 1st round draft pick, played with them for 2 seasons, injured/banned for the 3rd, likely won't return to football/the team. (ouch)
Luke Joeckel 2013 1st round draft pick, 2 seasons and counting with them (jury is out on the pick)
Blake Bortles 2014 1st round draft pick, 1 season and counting with them, (Jury is still out on this pick)
I mean, just look at that. From 2003 to 2014 and onward, they've managed to keep 4 of their 12 1st round draft picks, trading three of those guys for 1 starter, 2 practice squad guys, and a guy who left the team. Hell, only 3 of their last 5 are with the team still, with an average lifespan of only 3-5 years with the team.
Now compare that to a "middle" team like Kansas City, who has 7 of their last 12 1st rounders still on the roster, including their 05, 06, and 07 picks (though that is expected to change this next season). WIth 4 of their last 5 1st round picks still on the roster. The guy not on the roster, they traded to the 49ers for a fellow 1st rounder, and he is still on the roster and will be for some time. So really, that's 8/12 and 5/5 if you're looking at raw value, and on top of that, 2 of the 12 1st rounders, which left the team this season in free agency, will be adding compensaotry draft selections for the Chiefs this coming draft, likely in the 3rd or 4th round variety.
Now keep in mind, both are "small market" teams. The difference comes from ownership and fanbase. Chiefs fans are some of the most devoted fans in the league, and their ownership runs deeeeeep into the roots of the NFL itself (the AFC Championship trophy is named after their founding father, and father of the current owner).
Obviously drafts are a lot "bigger" than the depth of your 1st round selections, but its important to keep in mind how "well" a team is "hitting" on those picks, whether they become starters, and whether they remain on the team as starters. When your average 1st rounder is spending only 3-4 years with your team, or in the NFL as a whole, that speaks VOLUMES to the "health" of your organization. It likely means you've got bad ownership and a bad front office, and that combination can be deadly to an NFL organization.
Winning absolutely hinges on the front office, coaching staff, and their ability to draft and/or get lucky.
Look at New England, at the top of your list. They picked a "diamond in the rough" QB in Brady and have absolutely CRUSHED the NFL since. Looking back now, they have won 4 super bowls in 14 years, that's absolutely impressive, and they've gone SIX times.
Then you look at "the rest" in that picture and you have a recurring theme there. Each team has a solid QB at the helm. Luck, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Flacco, McNabb/Vick/Foles, Manning/Cutler, Rivers, Wilson/Hasselbeck, and Brees.
It goes without saying that you "need" a "good enough" QB in this league to win. Obviously if you can have a GREAT one like Brady, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, or Roethlisberger, you're pretty much set, and that starters with the personnel department doing their homework on each QB both in free agency and in drafting, and then ends with the Front Office either signing/drafting them, or not.
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