Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Aslan]

Picks Division round Sat:
1) Bal +7
2) CAR +11.5
3) CAR/SEA under 39.

Kudos to Tthree! You have ballz, sir!

[Aslan]

Couple things

1. Aslan you might as well stop, the T3/MD thing is an impossible tandem to argue against, they care far more about unrelated statistics and disinformation than they actually care about tangible information relevant to the situation.
2. T3, you might want to change that "I only the post the lines I bet" post, because everyone with half a grain of salt on this forum knows your lines are nothing more than whymsical fantasies, I've yet to find (during the regular season) any "official" line or book that supports the lines you claim to have bet. Considering your analysis all season long takes so long, and you're unwilling to take "gut" decisions, you've never been positioned to take an advanced line according to your cautious, pragmatic approach to sportsbetting.
3. Anyone betting AGAINST New England, at home in the divisional game of the playoffs is up for a huge let down unless you got the early 7.5 or 8 lines, because New England is undoubtedly going to win this one. The question is do they win it by 5.5-6 like most people are calling it.

Ninety percent of sports betting is illegal. Lines can come from any number of sources. I give Tthree the benefit of the doubt.

[Three]

Quoted by Math Demon:

2. T3, you might want to change that "I only the post the lines I bet" post, because everyone with half a grain of salt on this forum knows your lines are nothing more than whymsical fantasies, I've yet to find (during the regular season) any "official" line or book that supports the lines you claim to have bet. Considering your analysis all season long takes so long, and you're unwilling to take "gut" decisions, you've never been positioned to take an advanced line according to your cautious, pragmatic approach to sportsbetting.

I was accused of this already and posted a link that showed many of the online books and the imaginary line the non betting and brick and mortar bettors contributing to this thread was still available on more than half the online books. It wasn't a fantasy or a dated line. It was still available right up to game time. I am making bets all week when value is present. Picks are made later and may not agree with all my bets as demonstrated by my early bet CAR -4 that won but was not a pick or counted as a win in my record for picks. It was a value bet not a pick. I get the impression rather than being a helpful interaction of football betting enthusiasts as in the past years new comers have taken this thread into an ugly ego trip and trolling direction. It is a real shame. I apologize to Sharky but he may not even look at his thread as he hasn't made a pick of the week in weeks.

3. Anyone betting AGAINST New England, at home in the divisional game of the playoffs is up for a huge let down unless you got the early 7.5 or 8 lines, because New England is undoubtedly going to win this one. The question is do they win it by 5.5-6 like most people are calling it.

Spoken like a fantasy football guy that doesn't understand football betting. The Ravens are the Patriots Kryptonite. They have covered every post season game in NE with Flacco at QB and won two of the three and should have won all 3. You do realize there are 2 teams out there not 1. When handicapping you must consider both teams.

[Exoter175]

I believe if Gamblor used "genii" to replace his misspelling, he would be incorrect. Genii is a word used in both Roman and Arabian mythology, but geniuses is the correct plural for a person with exceptional ability. I could be wrong, however, as I am no genius, which brings up another interesting fact: genii is the plural of both genius and genie. I wonder what genius is responsible for that? The answer is probably "none." These things just happen as language evolves. If enough of us start using genii instead of geniuses, after a while, it will become the correct plural. Ain't that interesting? Attachment 1880

Both Genii and Geniuses is correct, anyone arguing against either plural is neither the former or the latter.

Quoted by Math Demon: I was accused of this already and posted a link that showed many of the online books and the imaginary line the non betting and brick and mortar bettors contributing to this thread was still available on more than half the online books. It wasn't a fantasy or a dated line. It was still available right up to game time. I am making bets all week when value is present. Picks are made later and may not agree with all my bets as demonstrated by my early bet CAR -4 that won but was not a pick or counted as a win in my record for picks. It was a value bet not a pick. I get the impression rather than being a helpful interaction of football betting enthusiasts as in the past years new comers have taken this thread into an ugly ego trip and trolling direction. It is a real shame. I apologize to Sharky but he may not even look at his thread as he hasn't made a pick of the week in weeks.


Spoken like a fantasy football guy that doesn't understand football betting. The Ravens are the Patriots Kryptonite. They have covered every post season game in NE with Flacco at QB and won two of the three and should have won all 3. You do realize there are 2 teams out there not 1. When handicapping you must consider both teams.

The only person making this into an ugly ego trip is you T3, after Sharky, myself and another got on your case about your letter grades and "imaginary lines" that you'd post each and every week that were nowhere NEAR what the real world lines were set at, which is the point of my post there about said lines. You may have posted recently about a line in the playoffs that you took, but the qualifier for my statement was the regular season, not the post season, in which you were posting lines as much as 9.5 points OFF the actual line, which is right around the time Sharky started ignoring your posts because you were clearly either trolling or off in fantasy land.


As for betting AGAINST New England, the numbers break down to a 1.5-2.0 window of accuracy for this game. That is, everybody seems to believe the Patriots will win this one close, by less than 7 and more than 4. Very few people who know their shit in this industry, believe that Baltimore will win, which is why the line was initially extended from 5.5 to as much as 8, and then back down to 7.

The Ravens aren't the Patriots Kryptonite, T3, the Giants are, the Jets are, but hardly the Ravens. You think because a team is 2-1 against the Patriots in the history of the post season that makes them "kryptonite" how about Brady's two super bowl losses to the Giants? That, my uneducated friend, is Kyptonite.

Baltimore, when they had a Defense, were certainly hard to beat, but now they don't have that defese. They modeled themselves around the Freeney/Mathis/Manning/Harrison/Wayne era of the Colts, and have done fantastic this season in doing so, especially with the re-emergence of Justin Forsett whom, for the most part, fell off the radar of everyone for a couple years until the Ray Rice suspension and him earning his spot. Baltimore, however, isn't much of a risk against the Patriots, who get to play Baltimore in the playoffs for only the second time with a healthy Gronkowski, of which they are undefeated in the post season when playing Baltimore with him in the line up.

This game is starting off exactly how I wished it would. Baltimore up early, without field goals after a New England deferred coin toss. The goal is to Baltimore to a 20ish point 1st half total here, with New England catching up to a 20-10 or 20-14 defecit, and then when Bellicheat makes his second half adjustments, shuts down the Baltimore Offense, and Opens up their own passing game more utilizing Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, and their screen game, New england comes back around, seals the game 31-23/26 and everyone goes home happy.

[Exoter175]

Baltimore just let Tom Brady walk into the End Zone with the "2nd highest rated red zone defense". You don't want to let Brady do that. If you let Brady get fired up, he tosses 3+ touchdown passes against you in the playoffs.

[Math Demon]

Both Genii and Geniuses is correct, anyone arguing against either plural is neither the former or the latter.



The only person making this into an ugly ego trip is you T3, after Sharky, myself and another got on your case about your letter grades ...

In case anyone forgot, I was the "another" who blasted T3 about the letter-grade picks.




Pssst! Exoter! It's neither-nor as in "anyone arguing against either plural is neither the former nor the latter."

[Math Demon]

This game is starting off exactly how I wished it would. Baltimore up early, without field goals after a New England deferred coin toss. The goal is to Baltimore to a 20ish point 1st half total here, with New England catching up to a 20-10 or 20-14 defecit, and then when Bellicheat makes his second half adjustments, shuts down the Baltimore Offense, and Opens up their own passing game more utilizing Edelman, Amendola, Gronk, and their screen game, New england comes back around, seals the game 31-23/26 and everyone goes home happy.

Baltimore just let Tom Brady walk into the End Zone with the "2nd highest rated red zone defense". You don't want to let Brady do that. If you let Brady get fired up, he tosses 3+ touchdown passes against you in the playoffs.

The game started off BAL 14, NE 0, with BAL + 21 ats. Now they're only up +7 ats.

Flacco completed 9 out of 10, 90% completion rate for the first 2 scoring drives; 2 TDs, 0 INTs.

[Exoter175]

In case anyone forgot, I was the "another" who blasted T3 about the letter-grade picks.

I wasn't for sure who it was to be honest, I knew it was someone who posted here semi-frequently. But really, one week he had a game that was like 9.5 off the o/u from what Sharky had posted and then he started catching a looooooooot of flack for his numbers and letter grades thereafter, not to mention a tongue lashing by me because his information being misrepresented could potentially harm someone else, and they eventually did.

[Exoter175]

The game started off BAL 14, NE 0, with BAL + 21 ats. Now they're only up +7 ats.

Flacco completed 9 out of 10, 90% completion rate for the first 2 scoring drives; 2 TDs, 0 INTs.

I'll tell you right now, if Baltimore doesn't get some turnovers going their way, they aren't covering this spread today. Right now its 14-14 with a deferred NE kick, advantage NE, and NE is still driving, double whammy advantage NE if they can get some points before the half.

[Exoter175]

And there's the much needed turnover, Baltimore still has a chance if they can get 3 or more on the board here before the half.

[Exoter175]

21-14 Baltimore at half, this is so beautiful , Baltimore still has a chance to cover, and I'm firing on all cylinders to get my O/U pick right, maybe even by the third quarter.

[Math Demon]

And there's the much needed turnover, Baltimore still has a chance if they can get 3 or more on the board here before the half.

Yeah, Tom Terrific just threw an interception.

Flacco just threw a touchdown.

17 TDs with zero INTs; 1 shy of Joe Montana's playoff record.

Flacco: 3 TDs, 0 INT. Brady: 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush TD.


More importantly: +14 ATS! BAL 21, NE 14 at the half.

[Exoter175]

Yeah, Tom Terrific just threw an interception.

Flacco just threw a touchdown.

17 TDs with zero INTs; 1 shy of Joe Montana's playoff record.

Flacco: 3 TDs, 0 INT. Brady: 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 rush TD.


More importantly: +14 ATS! BAL 21, NE 14 at the half.

Don't get comfortable with that ATS just yet though, there's no better coach in the NFL to make 2nd half adjustments than bellicheat and company, and fewer OC's better than McDaniels. NE will open up that passing game, most likely go to the no huddle quickly if they get it rolling, and this will end up a scoring fest in the 2nd half if Baltimore can't adjust. I expect this one will come down to the wire for the ATS bet, right where everyone called it at, that 5.5-6.0 range.

Also, "half" ATS numbers are very fragile depending on whether the team deferred or not. In this case, NE deferred, and the "weight" of that ATS number is about 10 points, rather than 14 at the moment. Its going to be a rough one, and I hope you guys cover, but New England will turn this bad boy around in the 2nd half. The Divisional game at home is one of their stronger games they play in the playoffs. Again, they've scored 40+ on average the last 3 years at home in that divisional game.