Sharky's NFL play of the week

[ZenKinG]

Good luck to all. Remember the genius that believes he can still learn a lot will learn more than the know it all that thinks he can't learn anything or see when he is wrong. The know it all stopped learning a long time ago but the genius continues to learn. Be the one that can learn rather than the one that can't. I have learned more this year from this thread and networking with others in this thread than in any previous year I can remember. I thank everyone for that. It may be because last year was the first year I didn't pick over 60% in decades so my ego took a hit and I wanted to learn why the changes in the NFL has made my methods less effective. I may never get back to the unbelievable pick rate I had before last year as a given but I am confident I can continue to learn and improve and adapt to the new NFL.

I think the reason you didn't do well last year is because maybe you haven't adjusted to the type of league the NFL has become. It's all about offense. The defense literally cant even hold their own ground anymore. It's a quarterback driven league and scores these days are all 30+ almost every game. Team with the better quarterback not only wins almost every time but usually covers the spread, so maybe just try to pick like a novice and pick the popular quarterback because he will likely get 20 flags a game in his favor when he passes.

[Three]

I think the reason you didn't do well last year is because maybe you haven't adjusted to the type of league the NFL has become. It's all about offense. The defense literally cant even hold their own ground anymore. It's a quarterback driven league and scores these days are all 30+ almost every game.

Thanks ZK. i totally agree with this part of your statement. The jury is still out on the rest. The rule changes and the use of replay have changed the game. The question is can I adapt and get the same kind of success i used to get? My success was high enough that it may not be attainable but I am learning this year and I expect to continue to improve toward whatever my ceiling may be. I am all ears if anyone has things they noticed that improved their performance afterthe rule changes and how the refs reacted to it and the replay.

I went 4-3 tis week with one game pending tonight. As you all know I always tease over/Under bets and had an open ended teaser on the SD game (SD +8.5) that I won I grouped that with the DAL total making it Under 62. The BUF total I grouped with the BUF game For BUF +.5 and under 46 but still lost both legs of that I believe. I know I lost 1 leg which is enough t0 lose the bet. So 4-3 on my picks became 3-2 on bets with no vig on 1 winning bet (1:1 6 point 2 team teaser). So I am 1 bet ahead less the vig on two bets rather than 1 bet ahead less the vig on 4 bets for this week so far.

I feel good about DEN tonight. Dalton has a long hstory of poor performances in playoff pressure and under the lights in nationally televised games. I expect the same tonight. DEN has a very good defense and of course Peyton Manning. Both teams have very important goals to play for. CIN needs a win either hosting DEN or @ PIT to secure a playoff spot. Win both and they win the division. DEN would love to get home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. NE almost lost yesterday and have another tough division rivalry next weak but BUF is now eliminated from the playoffs. I expect them to bring it next week against a division rival but they may not be motivated. The difference for DEN shot at the SB is so large they must assume they have a shot at the #1 seed. DEN is assured a first round bye as is NE. IND now is either the number 3 or 4 seed and will not get a bye in the division round.

[Exoter175]

I didn't see the DET/CHI game but was score watching.I thought about betting CHI once they benched Cuitler but decided not to unfortunately. The score said they were competitive for the first time in many games with a Jimmy Clausen, career rating 58.6. under center in a must win game for DET. I guess anything is better than Cutler. Funny video. Now they eather write off next year with Cutler at QB, bench him and get a QB that can think in the pocket or trade him if another team is desperate enough to get someone that makes poor decisions under pressure. Only the later lets them get out from under some of the horrible contract.I am sure they would be required to eat some of his salary in the trade.


Ex just uses stats without regard to changes that make them irrelevant or more relevant. We call that a stat guy. This is one who just looks at stats and trends with no concern about understanding them in order to use them effectively. Their handicapping is simply sighting historic stats with no effort to give them context and weight them accordingly. All trends come to an end. Knowing why a trend occurs and seeing that it no longer is the case allows you to eliminate trends that will die as they stop being trends rather than losing in order to find this out. MD has sighted a few in his previous posts. Ex also used QB stats from years back on teams they no longer play for when matched up against a particular team. I can't remember them all but he made this stat guy mistake over and over. Sometimes it cost him sometimes the garbage data got the right answer. He got lucky with the latter early but for a long time now that luck has run out. The DAL trend was current going into this year but DAL has been beefing up their O-line primarily to protect Romo's longevity but with the by-product of getting a great running game. Once they started taking advantage of the run and Romo wasn't a 1 dimensional QB asked to throw way too much his decision making got much better. He decided to eat sacks without a hit rather than extend plays or throw an ill-advised pass and take a hit. The reason for the stat originally was 2 fold.
1) DAL is a nationally marketed team. There are only a few in the NFL so the league makes sure they are in the mix and have an interesting schedule down the stretch by playing division rivals and/or teams that are traditional contenders or expected to be in the playoff picture this year.
2) Romo was trying to do too much on his own since they were playing great teams down in December and were in a situation that running was less the option than usual. They usually passed anyway except with a big lead and would force things in the clutch which cost the Cowboys the game. This year they run at least as often as pass due to the strength of that O-line drafted to extend Romo's career. This years schedule in December, @ CHI, @ PHI, hosting IND and @ WAS, is not nearly as difficult as DAL is accustomed to in December from previous years.
So both reasons for the stat no longer apply. If you understood football enough you would know not to use the stat going into December this year or at least give it minimal weight in your analysis. If you are just a stat guy you used it until you lost so much you stop using it.

Understanding why stats exist allow people that understand the game to stop using them as the trends shift not after. That also allows you to bet trends before they become trends. The stat guys don't care to understand why trends occur and use them until they have brought them to the wrong conclusion to many times in a row. That means losing for a while.I have no doubt Exoter understands football very well as a player. That is a small part of the knowledge needed to be a successful handicapper.


Too many think that "knowing football" will make them an expert handicapper. I hope Ex 's giant ego has been humbled by being wrong over and over again. Then maybe he can start to learn. So far I haven't seen any indication of it but I haven't seen his posts in a while except the parts people quote. He could have started picking ATS to show he can handicap and is picking at near 100% for all I know. I would be really surprised if that is the case but you never know. Even a blind squirrel ...

First: There's almost zero chance Chicago trades Cutler in 2015 unless a team like Arizona, Houston, or Buffalo gets involved. With the only realistic option in my mind being Buffalo. Even so, they won't take the contract. Chicago is married to Cutler for 2015 and he's being pressured as the scapegoat for 2014 while their HC likely gets fired in the off season, as well as a 50/50 on their GM.

Second: I find it completely ironic that you call ME the "stat guy" when all you've done throughout this thread is look at box score statistics. I look at trends, I'm a "trend" guy. Historical trends predominantly more so than anything else. Home teams win at home more often than not, away teams win less away more often than not, and Dallas AND Romo lose in December/January more often than not (heading into this year). I don't look at qb statistics like yardage and completion percentage and qb rating as an "all important" statistic, because they aren't. Garbage time has a tendency to bloat those statistics as teams that are behind by 2 scores tend to face prevent defenses giving up larger chunks of yardage and 1st downs, as they try to chew up the clock, while trying to limit the "huge" plays. Conversely, teams that win have a higher tendency to run the ball. If Denver is up by 45 points in the 2nd half, Manning will throw the ball on an "as needed" basis to convert first downs on 3rd and long situations or advantageous 3rd and short plays, but the team will run the ball every single snap of the game so long as they aren't forced into a passing situation while they are up multiple scores, that's just how the NFL works, this isn't College. Dallas being a "nationally marketed team" has absolutely no relevant information in this thread, or in anything, at all. This is literally the first time since 2009 that Dallas has been "relevant" to the NFL, and it took them until their 2nd year without having to compete against Andy Reid to clinch their division. We've already gone over your "bogus" claim that Dallas faces "contenders" outside of their division in the last half of the year, I've already debunked that theory and added statistical record keeping to further prove that. Beyond that, they are not "unique" in having to face important division matchups in the 2nd half of the season, that stands for EVERY division in the NFL. I wasn't "lucky" early on, hell, I started picking on this forum in the 2nd half of the year when the 2nd games of divisional rivalries (historically the hardest to pick and the most "opposite" of the first matchup) and I've just recently after a few bad weeks gone under .500 having to pick through the part of the season that EVERYONE, including you, should know to be the worst portion of the season to pick through. Rarely are guys ever even remotely close (over many iterations of seasons) to picking the last 1/4th of the season close to the first 3/4ths. On top of that, I didn't pick AGAINST Dallas just because they tend to "shit the bed" in December/January, I voiced opinion against them because they had a very tough schedule down the 2nd half of the season, very close in toughness to what Kansas City had to face (KC being one of the hardest schedules to face, SD was right there as well). However, of course I added Romo's historical record ON TOP of that mix, he's not a QB that "wins" you games with his arm, the whole reason Dallas has been successful this year has been by taking the ball out of Romo's arm and putting it into Murray's hands. When he has had to throw the ball, they've limited his reads and progressions so that his "problematic" decision making has been nullified and it has worked GREAT this year especially so "down the stretch" this season, to the point where I truly believe that Dallas might be the "Dark Horse" team to beat this season in the NFC, but ultimately Romo will have to go against Brady, Manning, or Luck, and I don't see Romo being able to compete in a "shootout" game, that is if he can even get there and doesn't have Garret get out-coached by Bellicheat in a NE vs. DAL game, which is the last thing Romo would want to face off against.

Third: I like how almost the entire emphasis of this whiny little post of yours is just comment and paragraph after the next about or directed at me. T3, I am a very football smart person because I played the game, but the reason that gets brought up here by me, is because of your misunderstanding of how the game of football works, and why certain statistics are the way they are, because you yourself are the "stat man", not me. I've explained time and time again this year in this thread about why you shouldn't make judgement based on X statistic or Y statistic in your posts because X statistic or Y statistic is merely a byproduct of Z action or A action, with B and C being the reality for the "result" of your X and Y statistics. You made a huge emphasis on Dallas winning because they ran well, and then carried that theory on to other teams like Baltimore, where I eviscerated your "Claim" that they lost three games because they "abandoned" the run, and they didn't. I proved that completely false and misguided. Its as if you were having such a bad year trying to figure the NFL out, that you focused on one of your favorite teams or players' successes, and tried to extrapolate the "reason" and apply it to other teams, it just doesn't work that way. Dallas did well this season by putting a super-star offensive line together to both run block and pass block, something they haven't done very well in the last 6 years. Then they pulled the "reigns" back in on Romo a touch and limited his decision making so they could really remain effective in the passing game while trying to maintain ball control and ToP with the Running game that they've historically struggled with since Emmitt's days.

Lastly: What reason do I have to be "humbled"? I've picked "well" on the O/U picks this year despite the competitive didsadvantage of making my picks well into the 2nd half of the season where historical statistics and just about every "honest" handicapper will tell you the "pickings are tough". The only thing I've been "wrong" about, are those picks. I've time and time again been "right" by arguing with you in this thread about the misusage of "statistics" as a product, rather than as a byproduct.

Now, of course, there are things I have surely been wrong about, like saying Dallas wouldn't beat Philly and Indy down the stretch, but that's less analysis and more like a pragmatic approach to thinking about team success. Without jumping on the bandwagon, nobody thinks with a right mind that they could have done that, but they did, and now just about everyone has to look at Dallas legitimately this year and ask the question, are they the REAL team to beat? Everyone knew Arizona was a "false god" of the NFC, and having wins handed to them left and right by officials down the stretch (KC game specifically). And of course, Rodgers took a shot to the reputation in that Buffalo game, the same week that T3 and I argued about Rodgers being "the best". Coincidence or perfectly timed sign from god that T3 needed to take a chill pill? You decide. Either way, The Packers Defense looks beatable, Dallas matches up well against them, and now the Cowboys are in a 5 way tie for the 2 byes and Home Field advantage, holding the worst Conference record of all 5 combatants, but looking to have a 4 way tie with GB, Seattle, and Arizona at the end of the season with the AFC having essentially an "off week" as far as playoff seeding is concerned, unless you're from the AFC north.

As for my picking expertise, T3, and my "record" of all things, not just the forum. I've explained to you before that NFL handicapping is not only something I do as a pre-requisite for my Fantasy Football, which takes precedence above all things, but that I have to actually analyze everything at the PLAYER level, not the team level, and far and beyond just box score statistics, live you've been proven to do all season long.

To give you an idea of what I do here T3, using Dez Bryant as an example. From week to week, I have to analyze the defense Dez will face, not in a sense of their statistics, but in a sense of whether they play a press-man, Tampa-2, does the defense have a Corner covering a specific part of the field, or does their defense do target-specific matchups like a Rodgers-Cromartie vs. Dez, or is it Dez vs. LCB/RCB. My job, literally in this sense since I do get paid to post on several sites for fantasy football, is to analyze and forecast the matchups using this information. Why else would I tell people to start Harry Douglas last week for Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh in a PPR league where Julio Jones wouldn't be playing? Or laying off starting Jamaal Charles, the most "matchup tolerant" Running Back in this league all season in fantasy football THIS week vs. the same team? When I see that there's a very big mismatch here, T3, from a fantasy perspective, that generally lends itself to be an emphasis to exploit or limit in a game from a coaching perspective, and so I need to analyze from there how each coach adjusts his team and how each coordinator adjusts their scheme and play calling to exploit or avoid such a matchup.

In any given game, in any given week T3, I've already done at least 4 hours more research on each individual game than you have, more than just taking 5 minutes to look at the box score statistics and say, well, they are the home team against a weak road team, and the home team has the QB with the best QBR and the most "balanced" Run-Pass districution. Which is exactly why throughout all of my analysis on this forum for the O/U games, or the arguments thereafter due to them, I've had a huge emphasis on the PLAYER rather than the team, and why I've made it a point to explain some of those mismatches to you and to this forum that might make or break what "appears" on paper to be a "good pick".

PERFECT EXAMPLE, this week I spoke about the Cardinals and Seahawks, I pointed out that Lindley would be their starter, and that he'd never thrown a single touchdown pass in his career, but had thrown 7 interceptions. Later on a guy like ZK who has no real clue what he's doing here and figured he'd pick the most advantageous lines at the end of the year so he could "look good" picks a game like Arizona saying they didn't "rely" on QB play to win, because of the spread. Gets ROASTED by the line in what turned out to be a blowout game where Arizona was rendered useless beacuse of an offense that couldn't move and a Defense that was forced to spend way too much time on the field. 33:03 to 26:57 ToP difference in large part due to Wilson's legs extending drives, and the team milking the clock every drive, something I believe I may have also mentioned about this week when I made my picks.

I think the reason you didn't do well last year is because maybe you haven't adjusted to the type of league the NFL has become. It's all about offense. The defense literally cant even hold their own ground anymore. It's a quarterback driven league and scores these days are all 30+ almost every game. Team with the better quarterback not only wins almost every time but usually covers the spread, so maybe just try to pick like a novice and pick the popular quarterback because he will likely get 20 flags a game in his favor when he passes.

Funny should should bring up the "popular quarterback" comment, in reference to flags, as I've used DPI calls "in favor" this year to influence picks as well as discourage some picks that I've considered making. Those DPI's "in favor" are going to grow in "significance" as we come into a post season in the first time in a LONG while, where there are going to be a number of the "top10-15" passing QB's in the league, in the playoffs. In fact, I'll make a post after the week 17 games have concluded and the playoff spots are clinched, to show you where each team/starting QB ranks in "in favor" DPI calls offensively, I think this entire forum is going to be a little bit more than "surprised" by the result.

Thanks ZK. i totally agree with this part of your statement. The jury is still out on the rest. The rule changes and the use of replay have changed the game. The question is can I adapt and get the same kind of success i used to get? My success was high enough that it may not be attainable but I am learning this year and I expect to continue to improve toward whatever my ceiling may be. I am all ears if anyone has things they noticed that improved their performance afterthe rule changes and how the refs reacted to it and the replay.

Use of replay has indeed changed the game, though its impact is a hard one to determine, and coach challenges (statistically) are so wildly variant you can't even really use that statistic to influence a game pick, though I will say in 2013 and now in 2014, many teams have lost their playoff spot due to the NFL blowing calls left and right. Last year in a KC game, a team made and missed the playoffs to a BAD call in week 17. Ironically, twice this year KC has lost games to bad calls or bad reviewed calls, which will definitely keep them out of the playoffs this year.

4-3 last week, 15-18 on the season, hopefully ended a horrible two week run there, but we'll see.

On to this week's picks, and boy do we have some MONSTER lines to pick and choose from

1. SEA@ARI 36.5 yes, you read that right, 36.5! I have to take the OVER on this one, I realize that Lindley is likely starting this game for Arizona and they really won't be able to run the ball, well, but I expect Seattle to put up about 23 points a game without much issue. Their offense isn't "that" dynamic, but Wilson's legs have a huge tendency to extend otherwise stalling drives which is part of the reason why Seattle ranks 3rd(tie) for most field goals made this season. Attribute Wilson's legs on top of a very tough defense, and you've got a recipe for solid field position.

In fact, Seattle ranks 3rd in the league in "net yards/drive" with 5.22 yards per drive, while they rake in the ball hogging ability to milk 3:09 off the clock per drive, ranking them first in the NFL.

They are basically the most impossible team to beat when you give them the lead, and Arizona is going to do just that. Having said that, Ryan Lindley-the backup in ARI, has never thrown a touchdown pass in the NFL, and has a career TD:INT ratio of 0:7. I think the kid's going to get that first strike in this game, either in garbage time or by a solid defensive effort from Arizona giving them shorter fields for offensive drives, which is nearly impossible to do against Seattle. But hey, I'm rooting for the little guy so he can get me some points here. I fully expect Arizona to have a very limited offense this week, which is why the line is what it is, and I expect them to have 3 field goal makes in this game, putting this game close to a 23-16 game, Seattle, though I fully expect either of these defenses or special teams units to score a touchdown in this one, breaking the game a little wider than the "box score" suggests.

2. DET@CHI 44.5 taking the OVER in this one. The "top tier" QB's that have faced this Chicago defense have had some of the best games of their season. Couple that with a "young" and "unexpected" QB starting this game, I expect a lot of early drive stalls and failures as he grasps the offense, allowing for a lot more first half possessions for Detroit, who will be looking to air it out against a devastated Chicago secondary. I'd honestly be surprised if the Lions don't score at least 30 points in this game as they look to strengthen their chances of a playoff spot this week, while GB has a layup game in Tampa this week.

3. CLE@CAR 40.5 taking the OVER in this one. Cleveland absolutely has to win its final two games and hope everyone else loses or ties for them to have a snowballs chance in hell at making the playoffs. Conversely, Carolina has to come out swinging in this one. They are half a game back of New Orleans in the division and this week marks the ATLvsNO game, which has a tendency to be a "Crap shoot" over the last few years. If Carolina can win this game and pray to god New Orleans loses at home against Atlanta, which would lead to a week 17 matchup of Carolina AT Atlanta for the division title, while New Orleans has a layup game against Tampa Bay.

4. Indy @ Dallas 55.5 taking the OVER in this one, wow that's been a trend this week. Dallas is at home, playing well in December for the first time since forever, and Indy is still in contention for an all-important bye week. Luck just doesn't lose, he doesn't like it. In his first two seasons of the NFL, he went 11-5. He's already 10-4 this year and has a career W/L record of .6956, he's on the coattails of the greatest in the game, and quite a bit ahead of that silly Aaron Rodgers fella. I expect Dallas to put up a big fight here offensively against the Colts, who don't have the best Defense in the world, but its passable. Dallas, on the other hand, absolutely has to win this game this week to maintain their leverage in the playoffs, competing against both Detroit AND Green Bay (really the division winner there in the North) for the 2nd seed in the NFC.

The only risk here in this game, is that Dallas MIGHT be without DeMarco Murray, and if they have him, he'll be extremely limited in his production on offense. I don't expect him to play, despite the desperation in Dallas right now to win. I think its a bad call to play him, and they've already ruined his legs for next year (Historical trends for backs near or over 400 carries in a year). I expect both QB's to toss 3 touchdowns in this game, in what should become the "game of the week" for Fantasy Playoff Fans, like myself, and the outcome of this game is likely to determine at least 30% of all fantasy championships this week. Each team, I expect, to net at least 2 field goals a piece, giving us an "expected" total of about 54 points through the air and field goals alone, and Dallas has seasonally averaged just under a touchdown a game rushing, Indy with about half a touch down a game average. Netting us right around 62 points expected from this matchup, with a slight edge to the Cowboys, though I expect Indy to win, and probably in Overtime or within the last 2 minutes of the game.

5. DEN@CIN 47.5 taking the OVER as well. This game SHOULD end up as a high scoring contest now that Hill is the starter at RB in Cincy. Dalton and Green have been a little quiet lately, and with their playoffs on the line in this game, I expect the chains to come off with this offense. I expect Cincy to have one of their best offensive games of the year in this one. We're talking 450 yards of Offense, something that Denver just doesn't give up. In the end I expect Denver to win out 31-24, and seriously damaging Cincy's playoff chances this week.


Two to Watch:
A: SD@SF 41.5 in what should be the toughest call of the week. I can make arguments for the Under, and I can make an argument for the over, both hinging on the production of SD's offense, and the lack of production on SF's offense. Keep an eye on this week and the injuries surrounding the matchup.
B: GB@TB 48.5 This one might be on a lot of people's minds this week As there's no chance Tampa puts up any "significant" points, meaning GB would have to put up about 33 points on their own on the road after Rodgers' worst game of his career. A lot of people will lay off this one, but I'm on the fence about it because I believe this might be one of his finest games of the season not just because of the cakewalk, layup matchup of the Tampa Bay Defense, but because this team absolutely HAS to win this game. This has the makings of a "trap" type game. Green Bay has to win this one to stay in the division race, after just getting crushed by Buffalo's Defense last week. I'm hesitant to pick it, but if I were to, I'd pick it on the Under with a 31-13 score, GB. That -10.5 though is almost a must play this week.

This week I went 2-3, putting me at 17-21 on the season for my deep 2nd half O/U picks, should have went with my Gut on that GB@TB game though, even though I "called" it, I'd never count it unless it had a number next to it :P

From the projected lines I"m seeing for week 17, it should be another rough week for O/U picks, but I have zero fear on this one, hell, I might O/U pick the entirety of week 17 on this forum for shits and giggles if these lines move a little.

In other news, went 6-0 this week in fantasy playoffs in one of the "toughest" weeks I've had to call against for matchups. I don't think you guys know how hard it is to watch the progression of Murray, Gore, Jones, and Hilton all week because you have the 4 of them on just about every team in 6 different leagues, and have to have a "just in case" ready to go with a solid matchup should your guy be ruled out (Like TY Hilton), and then couple that player management with Saturday/Sunday games instead of just Sunday, and THEN add on the holiday season with it (had christmas with one half of my family this Sunday) and let me tell you guys, that was a very hard task to juggle when you've assumed the role of "jungle gym" to your nieces and nephews, while simultaneously trying to switch your lineups in one hand and keep the kids from pulling the Dogs Tail all day.

Rough stuff, but we made it guys. Happy Hollidays to all.

And to T3, happy hollidays to you, you grumpy little pencil pusher

[Math Demon]

About the Cowboys: You were not paying attention, and/or cannot understand stats, and/or just totally biased against them.


Summary: Romo leads all QBs in passer rating (qualifying minimum of 50 pass attempts). Murray leads NFL in rushing yards and rushing TDs. Bryant leads NFL in receiving TDs. At one point in the season, their kicker held the NFL record for highest career FG percentage.

"Tony Romo deserves MVP for driving Dallas Cowboys' success"
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000448444/article/tony-romo-deserves-mvp-for-driving-dallas-cowboys-success

___

As for the rest of your rant, let's what Tthree, muff, or anyone else wisely ignoring you has to say:

First: There's almost zero chance Chicago trades Cutler in 2015 unless a team like Arizona, Houston, or Buffalo gets involved. With the only realistic option in my mind being Buffalo. Even so, they won't take the contract. Chicago is married to Cutler for 2015 and he's being pressured as the scapegoat for 2014 while their HC likely gets fired in the off season, as well as a 50/50 on their GM.

Second: I find it completely ironic that you call ME the "stat guy" when all you've done throughout this thread is look at box score statistics. I look at trends, I'm a "trend" guy. Historical trends predominantly more so than anything else. Home teams win at home more often than not, away teams win less away more often than not, and Dallas AND Romo lose in December/January more often than not (heading into this year). I don't look at qb statistics like yardage and completion percentage and qb rating as an "all important" statistic, because they aren't. Garbage time has a tendency to bloat those statistics as teams that are behind by 2 scores tend to face prevent defenses giving up larger chunks of yardage and 1st downs, as they try to chew up the clock, while trying to limit the "huge" plays. Conversely, teams that win have a higher tendency to run the ball. If Denver is up by 45 points in the 2nd half, Manning will throw the ball on an "as needed" basis to convert first downs on 3rd and long situations or advantageous 3rd and short plays, but the team will run the ball every single snap of the game so long as they aren't forced into a passing situation while they are up multiple scores, that's just how the NFL works, this isn't College. Dallas being a "nationally marketed team" has absolutely no relevant information in this thread, or in anything, at all. This is literally the first time since 2009 that Dallas has been "relevant" to the NFL, and it took them until their 2nd year without having to compete against Andy Reid to clinch their division. We've already gone over your "bogus" claim that Dallas faces "contenders" outside of their division in the last half of the year, I've already debunked that theory and added statistical record keeping to further prove that. Beyond that, they are not "unique" in having to face important division matchups in the 2nd half of the season, that stands for EVERY division in the NFL. I wasn't "lucky" early on, hell, I started picking on this forum in the 2nd half of the year when the 2nd games of divisional rivalries (historically the hardest to pick and the most "opposite" of the first matchup) and I've just recently after a few bad weeks gone under .500 having to pick through the part of the season that EVERYONE, including you, should know to be the worst portion of the season to pick through. Rarely are guys ever even remotely close (over many iterations of seasons) to picking the last 1/4th of the season close to the first 3/4ths. On top of that, I didn't pick AGAINST Dallas just because they tend to "shit the bed" in December/January, I voiced opinion against them because they had a very tough schedule down the 2nd half of the season, very close in toughness to what Kansas City had to face (KC being one of the hardest schedules to face, SD was right there as well). However, of course I added Romo's historical record ON TOP of that mix, he's not a QB that "wins" you games with his arm, the whole reason Dallas has been successful this year has been by taking the ball out of Romo's arm and putting it into Murray's hands. When he has had to throw the ball, they've limited his reads and progressions so that his "problematic" decision making has been nullified and it has worked GREAT this year especially so "down the stretch" this season, to the point where I truly believe that Dallas might be the "Dark Horse" team to beat this season in the NFC, but ultimately Romo will have to go against Brady, Manning, or Luck, and I don't see Romo being able to compete in a "shootout" game, that is if he can even get there and doesn't have Garret get out-coached by Bellicheat in a NE vs. DAL game, which is the last thing Romo would want to face off against.

Third: I like how almost the entire emphasis of this whiny little post of yours is just comment and paragraph after the next about or directed at me. T3, I am a very football smart person because I played the game, but the reason that gets brought up here by me, is because of your misunderstanding of how the game of football works, and why certain statistics are the way they are, because you yourself are the "stat man", not me. I've explained time and time again this year in this thread about why you shouldn't make judgement based on X statistic or Y statistic in your posts because X statistic or Y statistic is merely a byproduct of Z action or A action, with B and C being the reality for the "result" of your X and Y statistics. You made a huge emphasis on Dallas winning because they ran well, and then carried that theory on to other teams like Baltimore, where I eviscerated your "Claim" that they lost three games because they "abandoned" the run, and they didn't. I proved that completely false and misguided. Its as if you were having such a bad year trying to figure the NFL out, that you focused on one of your favorite teams or players' successes, and tried to extrapolate the "reason" and apply it to other teams, it just doesn't work that way. Dallas did well this season by putting a super-star offensive line together to both run block and pass block, something they haven't done very well in the last 6 years. Then they pulled the "reigns" back in on Romo a touch and limited his decision making so they could really remain effective in the passing game while trying to maintain ball control and ToP with the Running game that they've historically struggled with since Emmitt's days.

Lastly: What reason do I have to be "humbled"? I've picked "well" on the O/U picks this year despite the competitive didsadvantage of making my picks well into the 2nd half of the season where historical statistics and just about every "honest" handicapper will tell you the "pickings are tough". The only thing I've been "wrong" about, are those picks. I've time and time again been "right" by arguing with you in this thread about the misusage of "statistics" as a product, rather than as a byproduct.

Now, of course, there are things I have surely been wrong about, like saying Dallas wouldn't beat Philly and Indy down the stretch, but that's less analysis and more like a pragmatic approach to thinking about team success. Without jumping on the bandwagon, nobody thinks with a right mind that they could have done that, but they did, and now just about everyone has to look at Dallas legitimately this year and ask the question, are they the REAL team to beat? Everyone knew Arizona was a "false god" of the NFC, and having wins handed to them left and right by officials down the stretch (KC game specifically). And of course, Rodgers took a shot to the reputation in that Buffalo game, the same week that T3 and I argued about Rodgers being "the best". Coincidence or perfectly timed sign from god that T3 needed to take a chill pill? You decide. Either way, The Packers Defense looks beatable, Dallas matches up well against them, and now the Cowboys are in a 5 way tie for the 2 byes and Home Field advantage, holding the worst Conference record of all 5 combatants, but looking to have a 4 way tie with GB, Seattle, and Arizona at the end of the season with the AFC having essentially an "off week" as far as playoff seeding is concerned, unless you're from the AFC north.

As for my picking expertise, T3, and my "record" of all things, not just the forum. I've explained to you before that NFL handicapping is not only something I do as a pre-requisite for my Fantasy Football, which takes precedence above all things, but that I have to actually analyze everything at the PLAYER level, not the team level, and far and beyond just box score statistics, live you've been proven to do all season long.

To give you an idea of what I do here T3, using Dez Bryant as an example. From week to week, I have to analyze the defense Dez will face, not in a sense of their statistics, but in a sense of whether they play a press-man, Tampa-2, does the defense have a Corner covering a specific part of the field, or does their defense do target-specific matchups like a Rodgers-Cromartie vs. Dez, or is it Dez vs. LCB/RCB. My job, literally in this sense since I do get paid to post on several sites for fantasy football, is to analyze and forecast the matchups using this information. Why else would I tell people to start Harry Douglas last week for Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh in a PPR league where Julio Jones wouldn't be playing? Or laying off starting Jamaal Charles, the most "matchup tolerant" Running Back in this league all season in fantasy football THIS week vs. the same team? When I see that there's a very big mismatch here, T3, from a fantasy perspective, that generally lends itself to be an emphasis to exploit or limit in a game from a coaching perspective, and so I need to analyze from there how each coach adjusts his team and how each coordinator adjusts their scheme and play calling to exploit or avoid such a matchup.

In any given game, in any given week T3, I've already done at least 4 hours more research on each individual game than you have, more than just taking 5 minutes to look at the box score statistics and say, well, they are the home team against a weak road team, and the home team has the QB with the best QBR and the most "balanced" Run-Pass districution. Which is exactly why throughout all of my analysis on this forum for the O/U games, or the arguments thereafter due to them, I've had a huge emphasis on the PLAYER rather than the team, and why I've made it a point to explain some of those mismatches to you and to this forum that might make or break what "appears" on paper to be a "good pick".

PERFECT EXAMPLE, this week I spoke about the Cardinals and Seahawks, I pointed out that Lindley would be their starter, and that he'd never thrown a single touchdown pass in his career, but had thrown 7 interceptions. Later on a guy like ZK who has no real clue what he's doing here and figured he'd pick the most advantageous lines at the end of the year so he could "look good" picks a game like Arizona saying they didn't "rely" on QB play to win, because of the spread. Gets ROASTED by the line in what turned out to be a blowout game where Arizona was rendered useless beacuse of an offense that couldn't move and a Defense that was forced to spend way too much time on the field. 33:03 to 26:57 ToP difference in large part due to Wilson's legs extending drives, and the team milking the clock every drive, something I believe I may have also mentioned about this week when I made my picks.



Funny should should bring up the "popular quarterback" comment, in reference to flags, as I've used DPI calls "in favor" this year to influence picks as well as discourage some picks that I've considered making. Those DPI's "in favor" are going to grow in "significance" as we come into a post season in the first time in a LONG while, where there are going to be a number of the "top10-15" passing QB's in the league, in the playoffs. In fact, I'll make a post after the week 17 games have concluded and the playoff spots are clinched, to show you where each team/starting QB ranks in "in favor" DPI calls offensively, I think this entire forum is going to be a little bit more than "surprised" by the result.



Use of replay has indeed changed the game, though its impact is a hard one to determine, and coach challenges (statistically) are so wildly variant you can't even really use that statistic to influence a game pick, though I will say in 2013 and now in 2014, many teams have lost their playoff spot due to the NFL blowing calls left and right. Last year in a KC game, a team made and missed the playoffs to a BAD call in week 17. Ironically, twice this year KC has lost games to bad calls or bad reviewed calls, which will definitely keep them out of the playoffs this year.



This week I went 2-3, putting me at 17-21 on the season for my deep 2nd half O/U picks, should have went with my Gut on that GB@TB game though, even though I "called" it, I'd never count it unless it had a number next to it :P

From the projected lines I"m seeing for week 17, it should be another rough week for O/U picks, but I have zero fear on this one, hell, I might O/U pick the entirety of week 17 on this forum for shits and giggles if these lines move a little.

In other news, went 6-0 this week in fantasy playoffs in one of the "toughest" weeks I've had to call against for matchups. I don't think you guys know how hard it is to watch the progression of Murray, Gore, Jones, and Hilton all week because you have the 4 of them on just about every team in 6 different leagues, and have to have a "just in case" ready to go with a solid matchup should your guy be ruled out (Like TY Hilton), and then couple that player management with Saturday/Sunday games instead of just Sunday, and THEN add on the holiday season with it (had christmas with one half of my family this Sunday) and let me tell you guys, that was a very hard task to juggle when you've assumed the role of "jungle gym" to your nieces and nephews, while simultaneously trying to switch your lineups in one hand and keep the kids from pulling the Dogs Tail all day.

Rough stuff, but we made it guys. Happy Hollidays to all.

And to T3, happy hollidays to you, you grumpy little pencil pusher

[Three]

I am not going to comment much. Exoter has been proven wrong at every turn. He twists and fails to understands posts like he just wants a fight rather than an intelligent discussion. On every point he won in his mind only all other posters that commented backed me up. I only site box scores because they are what happened in the games. The actual play by play breakdown from beginning to end proved everything I said was exactly spot on yet Ex can't understand stats. he can't even understand trends are stats. if you can't understand stats you don't know what stats are relevant and which are not. Many, many people on here have worked with me and know the nauseating detailed look I take at every game I consider worth betting. Most comments aimed at helping me say I look at way to much info from every aspect of the game. Every time Ex says I only look at stats I can hear all those posters laughing at his idiotic assumptions. He makes himself ridiculous to all the veterans of Sharky's thread that have been following it each year since before this site existed. They know the truth. Ex has no clue and acts like he knows what he can't because at some point in some twisted logic he decided it would get him credibility. It is like those progression betters showing up on the forum and attacking Sonny. The ones that have been around know and respect Sonny from a long history of posts that pan more years than this site has existed. The attack just destroys the progression betters credibility, not that he had any to begin with. I have not seen one post agreeing with Ex in this entire thread yet in his fantasy mind he has won everyone over. I guess it is fitting he brags about fantasy football because his football on this site is a fantasy.

Anyway he uses the trend stats and doesn't try to vet them for whether they are applicable or not. You must understand why a stat is the way it is to use it effectively. All it takes is a little understanding of football. Does that reason apply to the current situation? If it does the stat whether it be a trend or not is just noise and should be ignored. If you don't understand why a stat, whether that stat be a trend or not, you must weight it less than the stats you do understand. MD gets it in his beast mode posts. The brutal defense explains some of the trend stats but not all. Some may be a simple as the strength of a teams schedule causing the teams they play to play weak teams or just the luck of who the team plays next. If that is the case you use the trend stat when the situation is what is going on in this teams next game. If you don't understand why stats are the way they are you are showing no knowledge of football when you blindly use them. I am not sure why Ex thinks he does. If you know football you know why a stat is the way it is and can decide if it is applicable.

Like the DAL stat. Ex assumed a turn of the page on the calender or the weather or the time of the season and DAL would automatically play bad. I explained why the stat trend was the way it was but it fell on deaf ears. Instead he picked on the one DAL opponent of the about twenty sited and said since that one wasn't a great fit he proved me wrong. All he proved was that the only thing important to him was to try to prove me wrong not understand why a trend stat exists. I gave three reasons it existed and all 3 no longer apply to this season and rather than trying to understand and make money when the trend breaks he just tried to prove me wrong in a vain effort that just made him look bad. If you now a trend stat is going to break because you understand it great betting opportunities will be there for you as the line reflects all the irrelevant trends that Ex swears by since he doesn't understand why the stat trend exists and has given all indications he either doesn't care why or can't understand why. These type of stat guys miss the opportunities that arise when trends break. Well DAL has played 75% of their December games this year and the person that understands football enough to know the trend was moot this year the other is advising people to bet the trend. Well DAL is 3-0 in december winning @ CHI 41-28 (closing line DAL -4), @ PHI 38-27 (closing line DAL +3.5) and hosting IND 7-42 (closing line DAL -3). DAL went 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS covering by 9, 14 and 32. As I recall he claimed to have proved me wrong there as well and probably still thinks he did.

Now, of course, there are things I have surely been wrong about, like saying Dallas wouldn't beat Philly and Indy down the stretch, but that's less analysis and more like a pragmatic approach to thinking about team success. Without jumping on the bandwagon, nobody thinks with a right mind that they could have done that, but they did, and now just about everyone has to look at Dallas legitimately this year and ask the question, are they the REAL team to beat?

I explained why this would happen and every poster that took the time to post agreed with me.

And of course, Rodgers took a shot to the reputation in that Buffalo game, the same week that T3 and I argued about Rodgers being "the best". Coincidence or perfectly timed sign from god that T3 needed to take a chill pill?

Of course Ex didn't notice that I was some of the few that bucked the trend on this game and picked BUF and made money line bets on BUF as I had told people privately that I thought BUF was a coin flip to win outright. To a stat guy this game was just about Rodgers but I looked at the game from all angles and it seemed very likely GB would lose. BUF +190 was a sweet payday along with the ATS bet. Unfortunately Ex doesn't seem to get that games are about matchups not who is the QB.As a fantasy football guy you should have seen it coming too. I guess Rodgers is not on any of your teams or you missed it in your analysis. He even made this clearer when used historic trend stats in games from other teams than were playing because the team had the same QBs. You must look at how the offense matches up with the defense not one QB with another. What does Brady stats when playing IND have to do with a game between DEN and NE? Or what about Mannings stats with the IND offense against the defense NE had many years ago have to do with the results of DEN@NE this year? Those stats need to be hardly weighted at all not given as the most relevant stats.

In any given game, in any given week T3, I've already done at least 4 hours more research on each individual game than you have, more than just taking 5 minutes to look at the box score statistics and say, well, they are the home team against a weak road team, and the home team has the QB with the best QBR and the most "balanced" Run-Pass districution.

I will not say how much time I spend when I have the time on a week of football. It is so much it would be embarrassing to post. As usual you assume things that are so far opposite the truth that it is ridiculous. Many on the forum know how much work goes into my analysis. i even have a few members that have asked me to mentor them on handicapping football because of my record. I have actually learned a lot from those experiences but they point is when you make statements with such ridiculous assumptions many here know just how insanely wrong you are and people in the football community communicate off the site so others that don't know personally know from their network.

have to actually analyze everything at the PLAYER level, not the team level, and far and beyond just box score statistics, live you've been proven to do all season long.

Again making a fool of yourself as I only did that when talking about history that you tried to rewrite. I sited the historic stats of Brady v Rodgers and the actual play by play analysis of the Ravens games in question which absolutely proved my point as others have pointed out to you in this thread. You still made an argument that the play by play did not support and claimed victory even though everyone could see you are just refusing to admit you are wrong and have some psycho trolling thing that has you deluding yourself about everything. Don't you think it is odd that despite me being a target by may on the forum nobody has made one post in support of any of your positions? Many have posted that you were wrong after you claimed victory at various points. You are on so many ignore lists that the post I am quoting from quoted your post specifically so all those people can read that delusional rant. Wake up and stop making a fool out of yourself. Most know all your assumptions are as wrong as they can be. Many are using your analysis successfully as a reverse barometer to look at the opposite of your arguments for opportunity because the lines are driven by stat guys like you and when they are basing picks on irrelevant stats great opportunities arise to those that realize the most applicable stats are in opposition to the stats you are spewing which the "experts" are telling every novice will determine the game. The people that understand football from more than a player or a fan stand point don't need any "expert" input and handicappers go out of their way to make sure their thoughts are free of the garbage they spew. I thank you for telling me what they had been saying though I won a few bets that I thought marginal and was ready to pass on until I realized that the line was being driven by poor "expert" opinion. One I missed the opportunity as the Sharps got their line and the books promptly corrected the line. The others I won.

From the projected lines I"m seeing for week 17, it should be another rough week for O/U picks, but I have zero fear on this one, hell, I might O/U pick the entirety of week 17 on this forum for shits and giggles if these lines move a little.

With all your "superior" understanding of football why aren't you picking ATS. I know it is harder than taking a a minute to go to Oddshark and bet the historic over and under trends but with your understanding of football it should be easy. LOL
Seriously though the last weeks of the football season are tough. I would wait to the post season for that. Most decent handicappers do very well in the post season. I know I have as you probably have read from others comments encouraging me tat are familiar with this threads yearly version many year history going back at least one other site. Dan Gordon, the sites pro handicapper that has a service, had a bad year last year as well but did very well in the post season. Perhaps you want to educate yourself on who everyone is by reading some of the previous years threads here and on blackjackinfo.com. If you want to get things to embarrass me, as seems to be your mission in life, I had my own thread last year and it was the first year ever that I had a losing record. I think I had a losing record anyway. It was the first year I didn't pick over 60% in my life so it certainly felt like a losing record if I managed to get up to 50% with a strong end of season and post season.

In other news, went 6-0 this week in fantasy playoffs in one of the "toughest" weeks I've had to call against for matchups. I don't think you guys know how hard it is to watch the progression of Murray, Gore, Jones, and Hilton all week because you have the 4 of them on just about every team in 6 different leagues, and have to have a "just in case" ready to go with a solid matchup should your guy be ruled out (Like TY Hilton), and then couple that player management with Saturday/Sunday games instead of just Sunday, and THEN add on the holiday season with it (had christmas with one half of my family this Sunday) and let me tell you guys, that was a very hard task to juggle when you've assumed the role of "jungle gym" to your nieces and nephews, while simultaneously trying to switch your lineups in one hand and keep the kids from pulling the Dogs Tail all day.

I am glad you are a winner in your fantasies. I have heard from many I know that bet on games they have started to do that exclusively because it is so easy and takes such little analysis to do well. When all you have to track is how one player will do against an opposing team or player rather than all the interactions that will happen to get a final score in football things get a lot easier. I assume your tremendous time spent is because of the number of leagues you are in. I know a lot of people that do very well in fantasy football and they don't spend a lot of time at it. I have no personal experience to base my opinion just having people come to me with questions they probably already knew the answer to but wanted a more expert opinion. They explained the various league rules and how points are earned and most of the time the right play was so obvious. I am thinking of trying it next year. Then I can make a real informed assessment from experience of how much is actually required to do well. For now my opinion isn't really drawing from much experience which is not good.

As for you constantly saying you know football because you played, well most here also played as did I. Being a player adds nothing to anyones ability to handicap, commentate, analyze, coach or anything else. It doesn't hurt but these skills are independent of having been a player. The idea that being a player makes you an expert just shows more lack of understanding of football. Why do you think nobody else talks about their having played football? The answer to the rhetorical question is because everyone knows it means nothing when it comes to all these other specialities. The experience can be an asset if you have an aptitude for any of the skills listed but doesn't make anyone an expert on its own. I stopped talking about my football experiences because the ones worthy of retelling most can't believe because I was that good. Your tales of football defined you as an emotion driven player and you stated that you are the same in every aspect of your life. I suggest you put that Rah, rah, go Ex mentality aside and take an unemotional look at this thread. If you can do that you should be humbled, embarrassed and learn a lot. If not you will continue to have a deluded version of reality that nobody else sees. It will continue to make you look silly.

[Three]

Brevity?

Yeah, that was intended on being funny. LOL I am glad someone got it, I hope. Reading that as the first line in a long post I thought would be funny.

[Gamblor]

4-1-1 last weak. 33-34-4 for the year. A Christmas gift for you all.

Det +7.5 vs GB - Seriously?
NYG -3 vs Phi - Philly sinking, Giants rising.
CAR +4 vs Atl - I'll take the good D vs the good O at this time of the year. Also like what I'm seeing and hearing from the Carolina org lately.
Stl +12.5 vs SEA - Trying to stay ahead on the Seattle team. Well anyway, STL D is as talented as anyone else.

Cin +3.5 vs PIT - I'll take the surging Cin D over God knows what Pit is.

[Sharky]

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year….and, of course, many Happy EV returns!!!....sure hope some of you, at least, were able to capitalize on my p-o-t-w this year.

SEATTLE enters week 17 with an opportunity to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs – something that may have seemed unfathomable after their 3-3 start – by winning 5 straight and 8 of their last 9….of course, their lone loss coming at the hands of KC Chiefs on a Sharky p-o-t-w….also recall that one of their 4 losses came at the hands of the Rams…expect a very different game and outcome….in a rout, take the SEAHAWKS – 12.5 for this week’s play.

GOOD LUCK!

Sharky

Last week: 1-1
Season: 13-6

[Gamblor]

Just throwing it out there, but Detroit as a dark horse Super Bowl champion?

[Three]

Just throwing it out there, but Detroit as a dark horse Super Bowl champion?

As everyone knows my only comments on Stafford has been to say he is a good QB and a good fit for a team like DET that doesn't require a big O to win. The trouble from what I have seen (admittedly I don't get to watch DET play much) is DET is a passing team which doesn't fit the rest of the team very well. With their D etc they should run the ball more. Perhaps their O-line sucks or they have no effective rushers because despite being somewhat 1 dimensional passing team they only average 3.4 yds/play rushing and about 84 yds/game. DET has been falling off late in the year. If they can get back to their earlier form. I mean they struggled against lowly CHI last week before securing the win but they didn't cover the spread. I must say CHI looked like a better team with Cutler on the sideline but still.

SEATTLE enters week 17 with an opportunity to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs – something that may have seemed unfathomable after their 3-3 start – by winning 5 straight and 8 of their last 9….of course, their lone loss coming at the hands of KC Chiefs on a Sharky p-o-t-w….also recall that one of their 4 losses came at the hands of the Rams…expect a very different game and outcome….in a rout, take the SEAHAWKS – 12.5 for this week’s play.

I didn't look at this close but the last week of the season SEA was every desire to win this game but no need to win by 13 points or more. If they feel the game is in the bag they will not risk their best players to injury. STL as a big division rival would no doubt relish the mini-spoiler role of making all but sure SEA gets no home games in the playoffs as a wild card team or home games with a lower seeding as a division winner. The only bet I would consider is taking the points. SEA may get ahead 3 TDs but have no incentive to risk injury to keep such a large lead. There will be lots of garbage time opportunity to catch up if SEA is winning in a blowout.

This week the only bets I am considering are:
1) CLE @ BAL and the points, +13 right now.
2) Either team in the DAL@WAS line at 5 game.
3) TEN and the points over IND, +7.5 right now.
4) JAX @ HOU and the points, +12.5 right now.
5) SF and the points against AZ, +7 right now.
6) Either team in CIN@PIT, line is at 3.5 right now..
7) STL and the points @ SEA, +13 right now.
8) Either team in DET@GB but the points are preferred, +7.5 right now.
9) Either team CAR@ATL, line is at 3 to 3.5. That is a big difference.
10) Either team SD@KC, line is at PK to 1.
Wow, that's about 2/3rds of the games. I guess NFL marketing is getting better at scheduling the end of the season or just got lucky tis year. My contacts in the league office tell me the end of season scheduling is one of the things they are trying hard to schedule the last weeks to be as interesting as possible but it is a large degree of guesswork involved.

I am not sure how many of these games will give opportunity this week but I am not betting on games that neither team has a motivation to win or the points are way out of line from the need to win on a week where playoff teams would love to risk injury as little as possible. Some have nothing to play for like NE, #1 seed but DEN (win the strength of victory tie breaker with both PIT and IND, beat IND head to head) still need a win or CIN loss or tie to secure the #2 seed and a first round bye, IND can only get the number 4 seed and has absolutely no reason to risk injury. The rest of the AFC playoff contenders has ample motivation to win this week. In the NFC things are a little more complicated but every contender has something to play for.

There are only 2 games that are true early playoff games but in one a possible winner still might not make the playoffs. If ATL wins they win the division but a loss or tie to CAR and CAR wins the division. IF SD wins they are the #6 seed wild card team but if they lose it goes to BAL if BAL wins, KC if BAL and HOU both lose or HOU if HOU wins and BAL losses.

A few key injuries in the games I mention above:
CLE Manziel out, Hoyer likely will not play so they will be going deep to field a QB.
HOU: Has Keenum and Lewis as their only QBs that are healthy.
KC: Chase Daniels will be QB as Alex Smith will not play.
SD: Punter Scrifes is out. RB Ryan Mathews out.
AZ: QB Stanton still out.

[Three]

Week 17:
FALCONS -3 over Panthers; (B- vs D-, difference 2)
REDSKINS +5 over Cowboys; (B vs D, difference 2)
Chargers +1 over CHIEFS; (B- vs F, difference 2.5)
BRONCOS -14 over Raiders; (A vs D+, difference 3.5)

Garading system with the wrong grades (garbage in-garbage out):
Week 1: 2-4-1
Week 2: 1-1-0
Week 3: 2-4-0
week 4: 2-3-0
Week 5: 3-0-0
Week 6: 0-2-0
Week 7: 2-1-0
Week 8: 2-2-1
Week 9: 2-2-0
Week 10: 2-1-0
Week 11: 2-1-0
Week 12: 0-0-0
Week 13: 3-1-0
Week 14: 2-3-0
week 15: 2-1-0
Week 16:2-1-0
Season: 29-27-1

[Three]

Week 17 picks:
1) ATL -3 over CAR. (ATL has swept the division and beat CAR in CAR. They are a dome team and get to play this one at home. Ryan is no Joe Flacco but he will get it done I hope. LOL He has not done well in playoff games which this essentially is. I rated this a strong pick with the following PIT pick. Hopefully Ryan can win this one and be the loser he has been under pressure later in the playoffs)
2) PIT -3.5 over CIN (My source in CIN tells me that much of the team is sick and weak. PIT handled them pretty good @ CIN a few weeks ago when CIN was healthy. I don't think they will have much trouble playing CIN in PIT when much of the starting lineup is ill)
3) AZ +7.5 @ SF. (AZ doesn't have much O but SF isn't going to show up and the AZ D will get it done with that many points)
4) GB -7.5 over DET. (I hate giving up this many points this late in the season but I get GB winning by about 13 and their offense is just plays so good at home)

I had a few others I would have picked but my internet went down for a few days and I missed the good lines.

Over/Under:
1) CHI/MIN Over 44
2) SD/KC Over 40.5


Results for 2014 season:
Week 4: 5-2-0
Week 5: 2-1-0
Week 6: 2-4-0
Week 7: 4-2-1
Week 8: 1-3-0
Week 9: 4-3-0
Week 10: 2-2-0
Wee 11: 6-7-0
Week 12:1-6-0
Week 13: 0-0-0
Week 14: 5-2-0
Week 15: 3-2-0
Week 16: 4-4-0
Season: 39-38-1[/QUOTE]

[Math Demon]

Week 17 Picks/Bets:

1. DAL - 3 at WAS
2. PHI to win (ML+130) at NYG
3. GB -7 vs DET (courtesy of T3)
4. ATL -3 vs CAR (courtesy of T3)
5. CAR @ ATL Over 47.5


Update (addendum)
6. SD + 3 at KC. I should have taken SD ML+130 instead


* I'm curious if IND - 7 will fail to cover vs TEN.