Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Exoter175]

Also I wanted to add, kind of in response to T3's playoff odds and whatnot, the following rankings from Football Outsiders:

Playoff Odds Report through week 15:
AFC
1: NE 100%
2: DEN 100%
3: IND 100%
4: BAL 87.6%
5: PIT 81.5%
6: CIN 78.2%
7: KC 34.1%
8: SD 10.0%
9: BUF 6.4%
10: HOU 2.2%

NFC
1: ARI 100%
2: SEA 96.9%
3: GB 92.8%
4: DET 88.9%
5: DAL 86.1%
6: NO 65.0%
7: PHI 35.3%
8: ATL 21.0%
9: CAR 14.0%


Biggest Gains were (1 from AFC 1 from NFC) Cincy with a +27.5% to the total and Dallas with a +29.2% to the total, and Biggest Loss was Philly with a -43.9% to their total this week, and Miami with a -21% to the total.

[Exoter175]

I guess they read my post. LOL




It sounds like they have little intention of starting him next year if they can help it. I thought they would seriously consider that route. It was pretty obvious. Hopefully they can trade him or the contract is really crippling them for next season. I am sure there is a delusional person on this site that will still tell everyone he knows all about football and how wrong I have been and that he has proved it despite all the real life events tat say otherwise. The same malarchy even though he has been wrong over and over and over again. You can never learn from being wrong unless you can first admit you were wrong. I don't know how much more wrong someone can be and have events absolutely prove it. I am sure he will continue to undermine his credibility by defending his now absolutely proven wrong positions on Cutler (despite no posted support from anyone on the site) and the contracts as has been his pattern.

Meanwhile Rodgers cruises along with his team to the playoffs. They are one of 2 hot teams in the NFC. The hot teams going into the playoffs usually make the SB. One of these 2 probably will (SEA or GB). Of the remainder DAL looks strongest right now with DET and AZ hanging in there but fading. Now that Romo isn't asked to carry the team he is less likely to make mistakes. When he threw on 70% of the plays, there was just too many opportunities for him to make a poor decision. We will see if a more balanced offense translates into Romo not "choking" in the playoffs or end of the season. So far it has been working well to pretty much avoid such occurrences. This year has been the year of long standing trends being turned on their heads (NO dominating at home and playing miserably on the road shattered to name one very long standing trend. Tis year they have the same road and home record and have been beaten brutally at home by many teams. Many teams that have enjoyed huge home field advantages have also seen the home field advantage moderated to a more normal level. How many seasons have you all heard me call Philly the Jeckel and Hyde team? They are getting pretty consistent lately. The SF dynasty seems to be crumbling. Strong historic trends from previous seasons just aren't worth much this year). By limiting the number of decisions Romo makes throwing the ball you lower the odds he will screw the pooch trying to make something happen.

Rodgers is a great QB but like Muff pointed out the best already have a big lead in the 4th quarter. To some a come from behind snatching victory from the jaws of defeat during the last drive of the game is impressive, to others it is certainly dramatic but having the game already in hand is more impressive. I don't care how much Ex may be bad mouthing Rodgers, I think he is the best QB playing right now. If Ex is saying otherwise, as the quoted posts that I get to see seem to indicate, he is wrong yet again. I guess everyone already knows this judging by the posts on the topic.

The Bears have absolutely no choice but to start Cutler, they haven't brought in a serviceable backup in years to Chicago, and there isn't one capable of being signed or drafted in the off-season. Trestman is benching Cutler to save his job hoping that giving Clausen the start "wakes up" their offense that is doomed for failure since it is missing its single biggest piece, Brandon Marshall.

And to correct your snarky comment about them reading YOUR post, you said bench him next year and keep him as the highest paid backup, not bench him for the final two games of the season where literally whatever they do will not matter, as the season is already over. This is a very, very common practice for teams entering a "rebuild" or when a Coach has his job on the line, needing to prove to his owner and fans that he can win even when the everyone has packed up and gone home.

Also, how are you going to infer that because he threw on 70% of his plays, it allowed him to make a poor decision, when you've previously polished his statistics and praised his "thinking" ability and his ability to "make" throws? Those two statistics don't correlate well when you argue either side of the line in two different weeks, T3.

On top of that, Philly hasn't been a "Jeckyll and Hyde" team since Chip Kelly came to town, and you should have known that before making the statement. I just find it funny how "THIS" year, I've been the one saying it, only for you to try and polish that statement heading into the Dallas game.


Lastly, you haven't seen a single post from me (and since you've quoted me after putting me on your "ignore" list, you've certainly seen and read them all) where I say Rodgers IS NOT the best QB playing right now, christ I've said it at least five times in the last 10 pages.

The issue is that you and Muff put him up on some kind of Pedestal like he's gods gift to the game, but he isn't. The only "Gift" he has, is the gift of statistics, being placed into a competitively poor AFC North Division where he has little competition.

And I'd hate to make an example of both you and Muff in the same post, again, but if Aaron Rodgers is in this "best" that you speak of, for why he is ranked so low on comeback wins, why is it that both Brady, and Manning are at the top of that list?

Furthermore, and I really hate to totally skewer your arguments here, but, I'll do it anyways.

You guys have implied that Brady wins because of his team, however, if he's at the top of the list for comeback wins, doesn't that imply that his team isn't winning him those games? Further, Rodgers isn't at the top of the list, he's at the bottom for comeback wins, and you've implied that his team isn't nearly as good as Brady's, but here you're arguing that his teams are leading, and thus not forcing him to "win" those games.

Again, you both are arguing two different angles and not using the same "measure" to make an analysis here. Muff is simply arguing because he's a huge Rodgers/GB fan, T3 is arguing because he loves to argue, so allow me to put this Brady v Manning v Rodgers argument and "who is the best" to rest, real quickly, and end it for the time being, or forever if you two would quit arguing for the sake of argument.

A: Comeback Wins
1: Peyton manning w/41
4: Tom Brady w/32
141: Aaron Rodgers w/7

B: Most Wins
1: Peyton Manning w/178
2: Tom Brady w/159
NR: Aaron Rodgers w/72

C: Winningn Percentage
1: Tom Brady w/.776
4: Peyton Manning w/.701
NR: Aaron Rodgers w/.667

Something to note here on Winning Percentage, when Aaron Rodgers eventually wins enough games to qualify for the list, he would (currently) be tied for 6th place in Career Winning Percentage. Currently he would be tied with Ben Roethlisberger for 6th place, and just ahead of Ken Stabler, Steve Young, Johnny Unitas, and John Elway.

Those statistics right there, should be able to show you who the "best" are in the NFL, Brady and Manning, and ultimately they do a very good job of pinpointing the real "GOATS" of the game when you compare their records to comebacks.

And finally, the "better" stat IMO, 4th quarter comebacks AND game winning drives.

Peyton Manning: 41 4thqc, 52 GWD
Tom Brady: 32 4thqc, 43 GWD
Aaron Rodgers: 7 4thqc, 11 GWD

Something isn't adding up here, and honestly, it makes a great example, fact, and statistic to completely invalidate both of your arguments about Brady playing on a strong team, and Rodgers playing on a weaker one. If anything, these Statistics show that Brady is the absolute best QB in history when you combined the 4thqc + GWD + Career W-L%, with Peyton Manning being "right there" on his tail, and Aaron Rodgers nowhere to be found.

[Math Demon]

I haven't completed my analysis. Just wanted to hear what you guys think.

JAX - 3.5, Under 40
WAS + 9*, Under 50
SD + 1, SD ML -103, Under 41.5


Thanks!



* In case you're wondering why WAS + 9, read my next post.

[Math Demon]

I will pass betting on this contest. I want to enjoy watching the game free from monetary considerations.


The game stats favor PHI, but ...

a. Aside from that trend that you mentioned, there's the matter of the ...

b. mini-bye (10 days rest since 12-04 TNF) to rest, game plan, regroup, practice, and recuperate.

c. PHI is just 6-1 (5-2 ATS, 5-2 OU) at home; while DAL is 6-0 on the road (5-1 ATS, 5-1 OU) this year; at home (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 2-4-1 OU).

d. For 2014, teams are 4-8 S/U and 3-9 ATS after a game against SEA. For the last 7 games with SEA (win or lose), the team loses its very next game 0-7 S/U and 0-7 ATS. They refer to the effect on the teams as being "Beast-Moded."

The last team that did NOT get "Beast-Moded"? DAL.

__

Dang!! I accidentally convinced myself ... recalculating ...

Update:

DAL @ PHI Over 54
Dallas Cowboys ML +155

Beast-Moded -- Part 2



I saw these previously-mentioned stats on one of the NFL sites:

"In the last 7 games (win or lose), teams are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS after a game against the Seahawks. For 2014, teams are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS after a game against the Seahawks." Now it's 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS / 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS.

__


I got curious and looked another one up:

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to another team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

Teams are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (exception: The Cardinals) after a game (win or lose) against this same team. Avg margin (13 teams) = -6.92 points



Which team? The Cowboys.

Should we bet WAS + 9 (vs. PHI)??


.

[Three]

I haven't completed my analysis. Just wanted to hear what you guys think.

JAX - 3.5, Under 40
WAS + 9*, Under 50
SD + 1, SD ML -103, Under 41.5


Thanks!

I have only done my first look since I am not interested in tonights game. I posted the playoof scenarios so you could eliminate games that teams are not motivated which TEN @ JAX is one. You want at least one team motivated to win, preferably both teams. If it is only 1 team you don't want to give up many points betting on that team. Many things happen this time of the year. Players both in and out of the playoffs may rest key players to avoid unnecessary injuries. Clubs also want to get a real game look at players they are considering to replace veterans that have contracts coming up in future years to assess the need for getting other talent to replace the veteran or sign him if no options look good. The cap dance depends on letting some veterans go and replacing them with cheaper talent that hopefully will be passable at the position and ideally will be a dominating force. Getting a no downside look at the possible replacement currently on your team is priceless free info. Coaches may be playing for their jobs sand players may want to help keep them or feel unmotivated to play well because they may want the coach gone. Look to coaches tendencies for info on how they will attack the games. The NFL front office has gotten smarter on scheduling. More division rivalries down the stretch where teams that might not otherwise be motivated want to play spoiler for their fans and in the spirit of the rivalry.

TEN/JAX: TEN has real QB injury issues. But my initial look totals are 43, 44 and 45. This would make a look at the trends necessary to confirm an OVER bet. It would be a weak Over.

WAS may be motivated to play the spoiler by KO PHI this week. The spread is too high to even consider a bet on PHI this late in the season. PHI is playing for their playoff life but don't need to risk injury to key players late in the game to win by 2 scores.My initial analysis which needs a closer look for many factors has PHI by 3 or 4 points. This would demand a closer look before confirming a bet on WAS. My sources in the Redskins office indicate they will commit to RGIII at QB next year but it could be owner/coach message sending. The real story on things like this are often not talked about outside an inner circle and what is leaked to anyone is calculated to achieve a goal. My initial look totals are 48,49 and 50. I might look at the trends and matchups but that is too close to the Line for action in almost all cases.

My initial score run on SD/SF has SF winning by 2 points. I don't put much stock in that because huge adjustments are necessary. I put an open ended teaser on SD +2.5 (moved to SD +8.5) on the early lines figuring the line would move to at least play a middle if I didn't like the play on further analysis. SF is melting down and losing team cohesion. They are playing an out of conference game and have no incentive to play. Harbaugh is most likely gone and most of the players want him gone from what I here from sources in football. As I have said over and over through the years a serious handicapper should pay no attention to outside sources. Just watching, listening to or reading anything from "experts" can cost you lots of money. I don't pay any attention to the media during the season as they can mess up your judgement. Most pro handicappers learn not to do this. The pundits are almost always wrong. They sight info that is not the most relevant and almost always miss the most important and relevant info. They drive the public betting which can move lines creating opportunity if you aren't listening to their BS. Once the Sharps jump in the line will react. The bookmakers know the Sharps and the line usually reacts to their action almost immediately. I would strongly recommend anyone serious about handicapping NFL to never listen to, watch or read what these analysts have to say. You will win more money in the long run if you know football. If you just like to bet and don't know football you have nothing to loss by "listening" to them. Dan Gordon stresses this to anyone serious about doing their own handicapping as an absolute must. Anyway you can bet especially after playing SEA SF will not play up to snuff. Indications from my sources in SF organization also indicate Kaepernick may also have an uncertain future there. He should be motivated to protect his marketability but he may not play in order to look at the backups already available as options at QB next year. Look closer at the matchups etc in this game. The outcome may be far different from the first look.My initial look totals are 41, 41 and 44. so the Over really isn't attractive especially with so many unknowns. The one motivating factor for SF is a home game in a fierce division rivalry. You just don't know how much that will cancel out all the other factors. I will Email you any update if I have time to look closer at any of these.

I hope everyone is getting why late season betting is so tricky and post season prspects are extremely important when making wagers which is why I post such a hopefully thorough and comprehensive post season scenario list every year for the last 5 years. Just remember that by kickoff some games may already be final that changes the scenario for the team you may be betting on. You must also try to factor that into your calculations. Hopefully this will help some tat struggle late in the season to make better bets.

[muffdiver]

Tthree,
Thanks for the post season capsule. Like you said, it's hard to pick eventual winners at this point. But which teams do you see in the championship game in the AFC? (I'd go Pats and Steelers right now) and in the NFC, I'd say (Seahawks and Packers) with the Seahawks beating the Pats in the Superbowl.
Of course, I hope this is wrong and the Packers win it all. Not that big of a stretch really but Seattle's defense is peaking and is "scary good" at the right time, I believe.
This is all subject to change. Possibly as soon as Sunday!

muffy

[Three]

I got curious and looked another one up:

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to another team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

Teams are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (exception: The Cardinals) after a game (win or lose) against this same team. Avg margin (13 teams) = -6.92 points

I would call this a garbage stat. The beast mode stat is due to a team getting physically beat up against a physical team. They just don't have time to recover enough in a week to play up to their expectation. The stat quoted above is proabably due primarily to what teams tend to lose. Most losses in the stat are from a few teams. The stat if current (would be for losses through week 14 in order to have a result in the next game. You always have to give a stat context before assigning it usefulness. How many games will be from which teams:
GB: 3
NE: 3
DEN: 3
AZ: 3
PHI: 4
CIN: 4
IND: 4
DAL: 4
DET: 4
SEA: 4
SD: 5
PIT: 5
BAL: 5
MIA: 6
BUF: 6
HOU: 6
CLE: 6
SF: 6
KC: 6
MIN: 7
STL: 7
CAR: 8
NO: 8
CHI: 8
ATL: 8
NYG: 9
WAS:10
OAK: 11
JAX: 11
TB: 11
TEN: 11
NYJ: 11

Total 207 games, 106 of them he teams have a losing record (11 of 32 NFL teams), More than a third of the games in the stats (74) are from the worst 7 of 32 teams.

In context this stat says losing teams tend to lose while winning teams don't. Like I said a garbage stat that is useless when you give it context and understand why it exists.

[Three]

Tthree,
Thanks for the post season capsule. Like you said, it's hard to pick eventual winners at this point. But which teams do you see in the championship game in the AFC? (I'd go Pats and Steelers right now) and in the NFC, I'd say (Seahawks and Packers) with the Seahawks beating the Pats in the Superbowl.
Of course, I hope this is wrong and the Packers win it all. Not that big of a stretch really but Seattle's defense is peaking and is "scary good" at the right time, I believe.
This is all subject to change. Possibly as soon as Sunday!

muffy

I agree with you on the NFC. I think home field may decide an eventual game between SEA and GB. Once you get to the conference championships and SB great D usually wins. Rodgers is a special QB though. Perfect execution by a great QB can trump great D but we haven't seen that in many years. None of the QBs today are as good as many from years ago whose stats are hampered by the old rules allowing for far more physical play from the D-backs. I won't list any to keep the discussion away from unproductive which QB is best debates. A game in SEA will most likely be played in wet conditions that SEA is so accustomed to but few teams play much in. Even my wife commented that it was sunny in SEA at kickoff last game. That is how unusual that is.

The AFC is trickier. The obvious choices are DEN and NE. As you know my post season picks are usually right and not often the obvious pick. DEN is probably going to need to win 1 game in the thin air of Mile High to make the AFC Championship. It is tough to pick a team that is likely to do that. Most players loss their wind sometime in the 3rd quarter. If I was a coach I would store players blood to add more red blood cells going into the game to allow a better processing of oxygen in the thin air. I am not sure if that is a rule violation. DEN has that thin air advantage because their team has extra red blood cells due to being acclamated to the thin air. It takes almost a month for your body to make that adjustment so getting there early is of no use. I don't see why it would be and it would be impossible to test for. I think some players may do this but i am not sure any team does. I mentioned it to one of my friends in the Ravens organization the year the Ravens won the marathon 6 quarter game in DEN propelling them to the SB. I have always wondered if they did something with the suggestion. It was such an amazing feat to come from behind in Mile High to tie the game and then win it in the 6th quarter or 2nd OT if you prefer. I guess that means I like DEN if they get a first round bye. As for Peyton and the cold. That is a lessening issue due to numbness in his hand in cold weather from the neck injury. He has gotten better every year with the issue either from healing or practice in the cold or both. I am not putting a lot of weight on it unless we are talking arctic tundra conditions. That leaves a team going into NE and beating them. AFC North teams traditionally have the best shot and the Ravens have the best historic trend but that is not really relevant to the current Ravens team. I guess PIT as the best shot but they haven't been consistent. If they play NE and play like the good Steelers they have a shot. I don't think any team that may end up in NE has a good enough D to stop Brady if he is having a good day with a healthy O. The two teams that will bring the pressure to Brady are IND and BAL. They both have secondary issues so it is a fine line to make that work. I think BAL has the best shot at the upset but it is slim. DEN and NE for the AFC championship.

As for the SB I would guess NE loses to SEA. GB and NE would be interesting but history tells us great D usually dominates the post season and SEA is the team that has their defense peaking at the right time. Of course this will likely all change by the time picks need to be made. DEN has brings pressure and has worked on their D to be good enough to win when their O is shut down by a great D. They could end up in the SB rather than NE. Brady has always struggled against historic caliber elite defenses. Pressure him and he is left with the short passes that have been his staple anyway for most of his career. The defense must be prepared to cover short with pressure on the QB.

[Three]

Muffy. Packers vs Lions game next Sunday could be huge. I don't see Eagles losing. Packers beat Eagles straight up. But not sure how tie breakers would work with Lions.

I avoided the seeding tie breakers in the NFC because they are not a factor in motivation right now. If DET beats GB next week they win the division. This weeks game only affects seeding. They lose a head to head tie with AZ but in a 3 way tie they best AZ and all other teams except if SEA is involve. SEA wins a 3 or more team tie for HFA with DET when it goes head to head in common games. Next up is DET unless the 3 way tie is AZ, DET, DAL in which case AZ wins. Then AZ or DET if AZ won in the prior example. DAL wins a head to head with SEA. GB is in the worst tie breaker shape should they win the division. GB beats PHI and probably DAL in head to head tie breakers. If GB beats DET and ends up tied with them GB (GB losses @ TB and DET wins @ CHI) is a wild card team. Most likely both teams win this week and DET @ GB will be for the division title. If they tie in next week's game DET wins the division.

[Math Demon]

Beast-Moded -- Part 2

Teams are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (exception: The Cardinals) after a game (win or lose) against this same team.

I would call this a garbage stat.

You can call it a hamburger if you want. But that doesn't necessarily make it so.
___

You are somehow implying that the resulting stats were mainly a product of a weak SOS. I don't think it is.


The weakest SOS (strength of schedule) for played games are:

32nd - TB - TB's opponents' next games resulted in 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS.
31st - PIT - PIT's opponents' next games resulted in 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS.
30th - WAS - WAS's opponents' next games resulted in 4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS.
29th - HOU - HOU's opponents' next games resulted in 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS.
28th - CLE - CLE's opponents' next games resulted in 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS.


No other team bested the 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS record.
___

We'll just have to see! It's interesting if the ATS results will bear it out.

Week 16: WAS + 9.0 over PHI

Week 17: TEN + 6.5 over IND

.

[Three]

You can call it a hamburger if you want. But that doesn't necessarily make it so.
___

You are somehow implying that the resulting stats were mainly a product of a weak SOS. I don't think it is.


The weakest SOS (strength of schedule) for played games are:

32nd - TB - TB's opponents' next games resulted in 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS.
31st - PIT - PIT's opponents' next games resulted in 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS.
30th - WAS - WAS's opponents' next games resulted in 4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS.
29th - HOU - HOU's opponents' next games resulted in 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS.
28th - CLE - CLE's opponents' next games resulted in 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS.


No other team bested the 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS record.
___

We'll just have to see! It's interesting if the ATS results will bear it out.

Week 16: WAS + 9.0 over PHI

Week 17: TEN + 6.5 over IND

.

I may not be understanding your stat properly but as I understand it the is an average for all teams. It couldn't be a stat for each team and have only AZ as the exception. A team that wins most of their games would not win most of their games if the stat held true for specifically them. Once they lost they would have...

I can see the problem your wording or my understanding was poor. I thought you were extending the SEA stat to any team. Like if a team loses to any other team (not SEA specifically) they will have this horrible result next week.

I got curious and looked another one up:

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to another team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

This is the stat I was calling a garbage stat and that was based on what seemed to be a general if any team lose to any team this week this is the horrible result you will have next week. It still looks like that is what you are saying here. I am guessing that by your response you meant this to apply only to games after playing SEA. That is not the way I interpreted this quote. If that is correct we are on the same page as I use this type of trend in handicapping for years. In my experience it is the extremely physical defenses that have this kind of correlation. If you feel inclined to look up other teams and post the results, please look at these types of teams. And please confirm this quoted post was only intended for SEA as the opponent.

[Exoter175]

4-3 last week, 15-18 on the season, hopefully ended a horrible two week run there, but we'll see.

On to this week's picks, and boy do we have some MONSTER lines to pick and choose from

1. SEA@ARI 36.5 yes, you read that right, 36.5! I have to take the OVER on this one, I realize that Lindley is likely starting this game for Arizona and they really won't be able to run the ball, well, but I expect Seattle to put up about 23 points a game without much issue. Their offense isn't "that" dynamic, but Wilson's legs have a huge tendency to extend otherwise stalling drives which is part of the reason why Seattle ranks 3rd(tie) for most field goals made this season. Attribute Wilson's legs on top of a very tough defense, and you've got a recipe for solid field position.

In fact, Seattle ranks 3rd in the league in "net yards/drive" with 5.22 yards per drive, while they rake in the ball hogging ability to milk 3:09 off the clock per drive, ranking them first in the NFL.

They are basically the most impossible team to beat when you give them the lead, and Arizona is going to do just that. Having said that, Ryan Lindley-the backup in ARI, has never thrown a touchdown pass in the NFL, and has a career TD:INT ratio of 0:7. I think the kid's going to get that first strike in this game, either in garbage time or by a solid defensive effort from Arizona giving them shorter fields for offensive drives, which is nearly impossible to do against Seattle. But hey, I'm rooting for the little guy so he can get me some points here. I fully expect Arizona to have a very limited offense this week, which is why the line is what it is, and I expect them to have 3 field goal makes in this game, putting this game close to a 23-16 game, Seattle, though I fully expect either of these defenses or special teams units to score a touchdown in this one, breaking the game a little wider than the "box score" suggests.

2. DET@CHI 44.5 taking the OVER in this one. The "top tier" QB's that have faced this Chicago defense have had some of the best games of their season. Couple that with a "young" and "unexpected" QB starting this game, I expect a lot of early drive stalls and failures as he grasps the offense, allowing for a lot more first half possessions for Detroit, who will be looking to air it out against a devastated Chicago secondary. I'd honestly be surprised if the Lions don't score at least 30 points in this game as they look to strengthen their chances of a playoff spot this week, while GB has a layup game in Tampa this week.

3. CLE@CAR 40.5 taking the OVER in this one. Cleveland absolutely has to win its final two games and hope everyone else loses or ties for them to have a snowballs chance in hell at making the playoffs. Conversely, Carolina has to come out swinging in this one. They are half a game back of New Orleans in the division and this week marks the ATLvsNO game, which has a tendency to be a "Crap shoot" over the last few years. If Carolina can win this game and pray to god New Orleans loses at home against Atlanta, which would lead to a week 17 matchup of Carolina AT Atlanta for the division title, while New Orleans has a layup game against Tampa Bay.

4. Indy @ Dallas 55.5 taking the OVER in this one, wow that's been a trend this week. Dallas is at home, playing well in December for the first time since forever, and Indy is still in contention for an all-important bye week. Luck just doesn't lose, he doesn't like it. In his first two seasons of the NFL, he went 11-5. He's already 10-4 this year and has a career W/L record of .6956, he's on the coattails of the greatest in the game, and quite a bit ahead of that silly Aaron Rodgers fella. I expect Dallas to put up a big fight here offensively against the Colts, who don't have the best Defense in the world, but its passable. Dallas, on the other hand, absolutely has to win this game this week to maintain their leverage in the playoffs, competing against both Detroit AND Green Bay (really the division winner there in the North) for the 2nd seed in the NFC.

The only risk here in this game, is that Dallas MIGHT be without DeMarco Murray, and if they have him, he'll be extremely limited in his production on offense. I don't expect him to play, despite the desperation in Dallas right now to win. I think its a bad call to play him, and they've already ruined his legs for next year (Historical trends for backs near or over 400 carries in a year). I expect both QB's to toss 3 touchdowns in this game, in what should become the "game of the week" for Fantasy Playoff Fans, like myself, and the outcome of this game is likely to determine at least 30% of all fantasy championships this week. Each team, I expect, to net at least 2 field goals a piece, giving us an "expected" total of about 54 points through the air and field goals alone, and Dallas has seasonally averaged just under a touchdown a game rushing, Indy with about half a touch down a game average. Netting us right around 62 points expected from this matchup, with a slight edge to the Cowboys, though I expect Indy to win, and probably in Overtime or within the last 2 minutes of the game.

5. DEN@CIN 47.5 taking the OVER as well. This game SHOULD end up as a high scoring contest now that Hill is the starter at RB in Cincy. Dalton and Green have been a little quiet lately, and with their playoffs on the line in this game, I expect the chains to come off with this offense. I expect Cincy to have one of their best offensive games of the year in this one. We're talking 450 yards of Offense, something that Denver just doesn't give up. In the end I expect Denver to win out 31-24, and seriously damaging Cincy's playoff chances this week.


Two to Watch:
A: SD@SF 41.5 in what should be the toughest call of the week. I can make arguments for the Under, and I can make an argument for the over, both hinging on the production of SD's offense, and the lack of production on SF's offense. Keep an eye on this week and the injuries surrounding the matchup.
B: GB@TB 48.5 This one might be on a lot of people's minds this week As there's no chance Tampa puts up any "significant" points, meaning GB would have to put up about 33 points on their own on the road after Rodgers' worst game of his career. A lot of people will lay off this one, but I'm on the fence about it because I believe this might be one of his finest games of the season not just because of the cakewalk, layup matchup of the Tampa Bay Defense, but because this team absolutely HAS to win this game. This has the makings of a "trap" type game. Green Bay has to win this one to stay in the division race, after just getting crushed by Buffalo's Defense last week. I'm hesitant to pick it, but if I were to, I'd pick it on the Under with a 31-13 score, GB. That -10.5 though is almost a must play this week.

[Math Demon]

Beast-Moded -- Part 2



I saw these previously-mentioned stats on one of the NFL sites:

"In the last 7 games (win or lose), teams are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS after a game against the Seahawks. For 2014, teams are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS after a game against the Seahawks." Now it's 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS / 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS.

__


I got curious and looked another one up:

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to another team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

Teams are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (exception: The Cardinals) after a game (win or lose) against this same team. Avg margin (13 teams) = -6.92 points



Which team?

The Cowboys.

Should we bet WAS + 9 (vs. PHI)??

I can see the problem your wording or my understanding was poor. I thought you were extending the SEA stat to any team. Like if a team loses to any other team (not SEA specifically) they will have this horrible result next week.


This is the stat I was calling a garbage stat and that was based on what seemed to be a general if any team lose to any team this week this is the horrible result you will have next week. It still looks like that is what you are saying here. I am guessing that by your response you meant this to apply only to games after playing SEA. That is not the way I interpreted this quote. If that is correct we are on the same page as I use this type of trend in handicapping for years. In my experience it is the extremely physical defenses that have this kind of correlation. If you feel inclined to look up other teams and post the results, please look at these types of teams. And please confirm this quoted post was only intended for SEA as the opponent.

I was deliberately making the post a little cryptic. Let me rephrase it. In the original post and the restructured one, the team was/is specifically mentioned.
___

Beast-Moded -- Part 2


I saw these previously-mentioned stats on one of the NFL sites:

"In the last 7 games (win or lose), teams are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS after a game against the Seahawks. For 2014, teams are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS after a game against the Seahawks." Now it's 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS / 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS.

__


I got curious and looked another one up:

This whole season, teams are 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS after a loss to a different team. Avg margin for the 9 defeated teams' next game = -9.56 points.

Teams are 2-11 SU and 1-12 ATS (exception: The Cardinals) after a game (win or lose) against this same team. Avg margin (13 teams) = -6.92 points



Which team? The Cowboys.

Should we bet WAS + 9 (vs. PHI)??