Garading system with the wrong grades (garbage in-garbage out):Originally Posted by Tthree
Week 1: 2-4-1
Week 2: 1-1-0
Week 3: 2-4-0
week 4: 2-3-0
Week 5: 3-0-0
Week 6: 0-2-0
Week 7: 2-1-0
Week 8: 2-2-1
Week 9: 2-2-0
Week 10: 2-1-0
Week 11: 2-1-0
Week 12: 0-0-0
Week 13: 3-1-0
Week 14: 2-3-0
Season: 25-25-1
Last edited by Three; 12-13-2014 at 07:19 PM.
Do NOT tease the animals!
I admit this is just taunting, Tthree! But sometimes ... one just can't resist teasing the animals
You keep warning me about the parlays. I keep insisting that on a 2-legged parlay, I only need to be 28% correct (or roughly 2/7) to be +EV. For 4-legged ones, 1 right for every 13.
__
One of the books that I use offer 175:1 for 8-leg parlay of all -110's. With ML's of +135 (BAL) and +110 (SEA), it could go up to 200:1.
If your picks are 11-10 (breakeven for -110 games), your parlays are breakeven also. However, if your picks are just slightly better, e.g., 11-9, your single spread EV = +0.050; your 2-leg parlay EV = +0.101; your 4-leg parlay EV = +0.215
* Any news on who will be TEN, CLE, WAS starting QBs for Week 15?
Note to newbies: I suggest being correct > 52% on single ATS and/or OU bets (weekly) first before trying out the parlays.
.
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
As you know I use parlays but those many game parlays are tough. What you say about the odds are generally true but the variance is huge. You can go 4-4-0 and if you group your 4 parlays wrong you are 0-4-0 for parlays. Group them optimally and you are 2-2-0 for your parlays. Most likely you will be around 1-3-0. I think there are 28 possible 2 team pairings for those 8 picks. Even if you go 4-2-0 your 6 picks can go 1-2 in 2-team parlays. In fact it is most likely to go 1-2 when grouped in 3 two-team parlays. Only 20% of the time will it go 2-1 (The two losses are rarely grouped together). The math may work out in your favor but the variance is huge. You live and die by the actual rate of that 20% occurrence. Basically you N0 is very large.
"I told once. I told you a thousand times. Do NOT provoke the Borg!" - Q
"I told once. I told you a thousand times. Do NOT provoke the Borg!" - Q
Of course you're right! Your staple bets should be single spread and OU bets, with a sprinkling of two-leg parlays when the bets are correlated. Ventures into larger parlays should be bet with caution.
"I told once. I told you a thousand times. Do NOT troll the Tthree!" - MD
.
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147355 }
DAL - 3, Over 51
Cha-ching! $91 won for $100 at risk, and $130 won for $50 at risk.
Thanks to everyone who provided input into the discussion.
{ /QUOTE }
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147404 }
Thanks Gamblor! I guess we're ALL back to game-picking as opposed to nit-picking.
A. Just curious, do you have a W-L record for your "Stone Cold Lock of the Century (of the Week)"?
B. TEN + 1 vs NYG?? NYG lost at the last minute vs JAX in Week 13. I think TEN will get NYG's best effort. Will it be enough for NYG to win??
C. I agree with your SEA +1 at PHI pick.
D. I don't disagree with your TB + 10 at DET. But I, personally, would be hesitant to bet against the #1 Defense on home turf.
How does TB perform on artificial turf and in domes? TB averages 22.5 PF, 46.5 PA, -24 mov in domes & turf (42-point loss at ATL, 6-point loss to NO).
Let's look at it another way: DET (at home) defeated CHI 34-17. CHI defeated TB (road team) 21-13. Can DET (at home) defeat TB (road team) by more than 10?
E. CIN - 3 vs PIT -- I don't trust either team. I think they're both inconsistent. I, personally, will pass on this one.
____
1. I don't trust inconsistent CLE. But I do trust IND. IND - 3.5
3. I don't understand MIA. I have lost betting on them. I have lost betting against them.
BAL, to me, seem more consistent. The points are just a bonus. BAL to win ML +125 / BAL +2.5 (+100).
6. Yeah, I hear you! Both are coming off 2-game losing streaks. ARZ is playing at home, but KC has much better personnel. I may pass, but I will probably have a small bet on KC to cover, KC (pk).
8. A Monday night game at Lambeau? How does Atlanta play in open stadiums and on grass? How do they perform on cold night games?
I'll wait for Tthree, Sharky, and Exetor to chime in.
What ever you decide... Good Luck Gamblor! (except when we're on opposite sides)
{/QUOTE }
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147557 }
I second that! I wish the best of luck to all our favorite and/or home teams on their quest for the playoffs.
As for the teams we bet on, the last thing I want is an exciting game. I always want them to create blow-out leads by halftime.
__
To anyone new to this thread, please read ALL the posts for the past few weeks. Read all the points and counterpoints, read all your outside sources, then make your own decisions.
Here's what I think are the biggest mismatches for this week:
1. HOU - 5 (-110) at JAX ($110 to win $100) -- WON! (HOU 27, JAX 13)
2. IND - 3 (-105) at CLE ($105 to win $100) -- LOST by 2! (IND 25, CLE 24) -- IND failed at two 2-point conversions in Q3 & Q4.
3. STL - 3 (-105) at WAS ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (STL 24, WAS 0)
___
4. at CIN - 3 (-125) vs PIT was too expensive at -125.
Parlayed #1 to #4 for $10 to win $116. -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)
Teased 1, 2, 4 & 5 for $10 to win $45: HOU - 2, IND (pk), CIN (pk), BAL + 6 -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)
___
5. BAL + 3 (-105) at MIA ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
6. BAL ML +135 & Under 45½ (quarter-bet, $25 to win $87.25) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
7. DAL - 3 @ CHI (TNF - $100 to win $91: already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
8. DAL - 3 & Over 51 (TNF - $50 to win $130; already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
Depending on success/trends on 1 PM games and 3 PM odds, I may bet, parlay or tease the 4 PM games. No plays on 4 PM games.
a. KC (pk) at ARZ
b. SEA + 1 @ PHI & Under 48 | SEA ML +110 & Under 48
c. SFO - 8.5 @ OAK
d. DEN - 10 vs BUF
SNF & MNF:
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½
MNF: GB - 13 vs ATL
{ /QUOTE }
Before everybody starts telling me how wrong I was; I can't hear you! I'm too busy counting my money.
It wasn't pretty, but an ATS-win is all that matters.
{ /QUOTE }
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147577 }
Talk about being lucky ... Good call on the "no plays" on the 4 PM games. I would have gone 2-3.
a. KC (pk) at ARZ -- WRONG!!
b. SEA + 1 @ PHI & Under 48 | SEA ML +110 & Under 48 -- CORRECT & CORRECT
c. SFO - 8.5 @ OAK -- WRONG!!
d. DEN - 10 vs BUF -- WRONG!!
____
SNF: No play!
NE is 6-0 (since 2013), 8-2 (since 2012), after a loss.
BUT NE does not play well on grass: 0-9 ATS on last 9 games on grass. 3-7 O/U on last 10 games on grass.
SD on grass: 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U.
SD is desperate because of their remaining schedule: NE, DEN, SFO and KC. NE has SD, MIA, NYJ and BUF.
{ /QUOTE }
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147589 }
SNF & MNF:
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½
MNF: GB - 13 vs ATL
{ /QUOTE }
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147577 }
SNF: No play!
NE is 6-0 (since 2013), 8-2 (since 2012), after a loss.
BUT NE does not play well on grass: 0-9 ATS on last 9 games on grass. 3-7 O/U on last 10 games on grass.
SD on grass: 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U.
SD is desperate because of their remaining schedule: NE, DEN, SFO and KC. NE has SD, MIA, NYJ and BUF.
{ /QUOTE }
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½
Aaaaarrrgh!
I left parlay money (2.6x or 2.64x) on the table!
Instead of trusting previously-performed analysis, I saw some last-minute stats on NE's performance on grass, which looked convincing (0-9 ATS in last 9 games).
{ QUOTE=Math Demon;147577 }
NE does not play well on grass: 0-9 ATS on last 9 games on grass. 3-7 O/U on last 10 games on grass.
{ /QUOTE }
For a safer bet, I had almost bet the "Under 52½", but didn't. I guess I wanted to protect today's lead.
Oh well! There's always next week. As long as I keep improving at predicting ATS, it's never truly a loss.
{ /QUOTE }
______________________________
NFL 2014 - Week 14 - MNF - ATL @ GB
at GB - 13 (-110) vs ATL | OU 54.5 (-110)
I been back-and-forth on this game multiple times. There's a case to made for either side as well as for O/U. Thirteen points (13) is HUGE to lay this late in the season, with games having playoff implications (like this one).
You cannot rely on stats alone! As Tthree had stated multiple times, you have to look at emotional angles. Stated differently, you have to consider non-numerical, off-the-field factors.
__
But let's start with the stats:
On the road, ATL averages 19 (PF), 26 (PA), -7 (mov), and 45 (total).
On grass, ATL averages 22 (PF), 19 (PA), +4 (mov), and 41 (total) - including a "home game" at London.
On grass (on US soil), ATL averages 23 (PF), 17 (PA), +6 (mov), and 40 (total).
At open stadiums, ATL averages 19 (PF), 26 (PA), -7 (mov), and 45 (total).
From ATL's point-of-view, it looks like the line should be from -6 to +7, and the OU in the low- to mid-40's.
At home, GB averages 43 (PF), 16 (PA), +26 (mov), and 59 (total).
GB, on the road, does NOT perform well vs Division Leaders. SEA, DET, NO when they WERE Div Leaders.
However, GB at home, disposed of PHI 53-20, NE 26-21.
__
A lot of NFL experts think that GB will slack off and just try to get a win, while looking ahead to a hard battle on the road to BUF.
I'm thinking the opposite, this game is against a potential NFC playoff team, a current NFC Division Leader, and one they MAY face in the playoffs.
__
Bottomline: Against NFC teams, GB (at home) averages 47 (PF), 15 (PA), +32 (mov), and 62 (totals). For 2014, vs NFC at home, GB is 4-0 ATS and 4-0 Over.
For 2014, the total of 54.5 was proposed by Vegas once (NO @ PIT), and that went Over (67). In 2013 (regular season), it went 2-0 Over (65), mov = +25.
I placed 2 wagers:
Parlay GB-13 & Over 54.5 ($25 to win $66)
Teaser GB-10 & Over 51.5 ($25 to win $33.25)
* Shoot! There's snow flurries, 33F, 5 mph wind at game time. Forgot to check the weather report. That could prevent the Falcons from scoring, and send the totals Under, but I had already placed the bets. Oh well, I'm still learning!
.
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
4:00 left 17-34. Not looking very good. Hopefully GB scores again. When they get the ball back they will likely just try to eat clock. Hope for a pick 6.
What is up with the 3 point teasers. I have never heard of that. Teasers get their value by shifting across high frequency MOV. I guess moving the line across 3 or 6 and 7 point MOV might have value but I am not sure there is value there.
OOPs. I woke up and thought it was the 4th quarter. LOL. looks like you are okay at this time. Good luck.
Last edited by Three; 12-08-2014 at 07:52 PM.
Somebody's got to be the scapegoat in Chicago, why not blame the guy who just cashed the largest check?
In the NFL, guys don't contracts based on statistics, they get them based on A. The average starting salary of a term player for the position. B. If they worth a shit. and C. If they win.
Chicago absolutely HAD to nail Cutler to a long term deal because there is no "decent" QB coming up in the draft for at least 2 more years, and there doesn't seem to be an upgrade at the position until the 2016 season in free agency.
As we've already discussed in this thread, Cutler's contract is only a "hard bargain" until after the 2015 season (next year), from there they can cut him and take a very small hit (3Mil). Coincidentally, the "end" of his "hard bargain" portion of his contract, happens to fall perfectly into the free agency window where that 2016 crop of free agents has the potential to get them a servicable starter, on top of that, the 2016 draft class will bring out a few nice QB prospects for the Bears, depending on whether or not they tank the 2015 season for drafting reasons.
1. No it wasn't, and we've gone over this.
2. The team is NOT crippled by his contract, and by comparison that we drew earlier, his contract is far more friendly to his team than Rodgers' is, and Stafford, to whom you compared about 15 pages ago.
3. There's ZERO chance Cutler gets traded, and part of that isn't even because of his contract size, but the fact that Chicago has no "better" option in 2015 on the roster, in the draft, or through free agency.
NFL 2014 - Week 14 - MNF - ATL @ GB
Watching that game was just annoying!
GB had a 24-point lead at halftime (31-7), with the lead and the totals headed in the right direction. Then GB Defense's incompetence kicked in, allowing 30 points in the 2nd half. Atlanta's Julio Jones had a career-high of 259 yards on just 11 catches (for a ridiculous 23.5 ypc)!
The game ended with GB 43, ATL 37, with the Packers refusing to score a TD at the ATL 6 (redzone) as time expired. The mov was +6. The total was 80 (Over 54.5).
GB and ATL Offenses are now on my radar, as well as their suspect Defenses.
__
I guess 13 points was too much to lay this late in the season. And, yes, a 7-point teaser would have pushed & won.
Well ... I'm just beginning to learn this NFL thingy. I hope I get better at this!
.
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
Giving up a ton of points late in the year is tough because teams bettors and books all know teams pretty good by then and the favorite is just trying to win, not cover. IF GB needed a TD at the end of the game they probably would have got it. On the almost TD run toward the end of the game the RB would have been smartest not scoring (which is what happened but not by the RB choosing not to score). As long as ATL doesn't have the ball they are not likely to score. Of course in a 1 score game this "wisdom" may not apply.
That is a push (2-team teaser push/win). 3-team teaser push/win/win becomes a 2-team teaser win.
Yeah, Tthree! Poor choice of words on my part. 13 points was a lot! 13 points, at the end of this game, was too much.
But the analysis and decision to lay that many points was NOT entirely wrong! GB's average margin-of-victory vs NFC teams was +26 points. GB crushed PHI 53-20, an mov of +33. And PHI was a team with better Offense and Defense.
** Also, since 2009, for spreads of -13, the cover record is 11-6-0 or 64.7%
__
DET-10 covered; DEN-9.5, NO-9 & SFO-8 all failed to cover; HOU-6 and MIN-5 covered. The number of points is NOT a linear indicator of ATS winning or losing.
I guess I should have passed on the game since there was conflicting info. But I already passed on the NE-3½ & Under 52½ last night (which both won) because of last-minute information which conflicted with previous thorough analysis.
__
It was really a tale of two halves:
1st half: GB 31, ATL 07; 1 Matt Ryan INT
2nd half: GB 12, ATL 30
I don't care enough to break the rushing and receiving yardage by halves. But it's evident that ATL dominated in the 2nd half in points, TDs, rec yards, and opp penalties. While GB dominated the 1st.
... and it is now likely that a 6-10 team will win the NFC South, and host a playoff game.
UPDATE:
Is there a measure of ATS correctness (aside from the final score)? GB lead was >= 13 for about half the contest. Probably for 3/4, GB's lead was >= 10.
Unlike the O/U, where the "Under" bettor is correct for most of the game, then becomes permanently wrong; or the "Over" bettor is wrong for most of the game, then becomes permanently correct; I think there should a way to measure your ATS accuracy like TOP (time of possession).
For now, I just use halftime as a gauge for the probability of winning an O/U bet. Since 2009, 51.24% of all points are scored in the 1st half.
.
Last edited by Math Demon; 12-08-2014 at 11:59 PM.
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
I agree that GB could easily cover if they had covering as their goal and that of all the teams in the league GB is one that is most likely to cover a big spread. GB before this game was 2-0-1 (0-1-0 away MOV +3) at home giving up with MOV +32, +41 and +7. But ATL had never played a game this year getting 7 or more points which is worrisome.
At first look this week BAL at -13. As a home favorite of 2 points or more this year they are 3-1-0 with MOV of +14, +22, -1 and +28. Now that is half of what you need to know. JAX is 0-9-1 when getting 5 or more points and 0-4-1 in those games when away. In away games getting 5 or more points JAX's MOV is -21, -17, -10, -19 and -20. Now I would consider giving up 13 points in this matchup if the analysis supported it.
You are correct. You must look at individual matchups to determine the value of giving up 7 or more points. And you should look at both teams tendencies not just the favorite. Well DET won by 17 so they covered. The other two I favored taking the points in my analysis but scratched both game from my pick list.
Before the game DEN was 4-4-0 when giving up 7 or more points and 2-3-0 at home with MOV of +3, +7, +21, +14 and +7. BUF has done great ATS this year and when getting 7 or more points they were 1-0-0 (an away game) MOV +13. These stats would not give me confidence that DEN would cover a big spread against BUF.
SF was 0-3-0 for giving up 7 or more points and lost outright in 2 of the 3 games. All were home games and this game would be played at the "Black Hole". OAK was 3-2-0 giving up 7 or more (2-1-0 at home, MOV +4, -3, and -14). This will kep me from giving up more than 7 in this matchup.
HOU/JAX: HOU was 5-0-0 when giving up 3 or more points heading into this matchup (3-0-0 in away games with MOV of +19, +14 and +14). JAX is discussed in the BAL week 15 section. This was a no brainer pick once I added this to the analysis.
NYJ/MIN: MIN had never been such a heavy favorite but they were 3-0-0 as home favorite of 2 or more points (MOV +18 and +6) but lost badly in the other game as a home favorite (-1.5 , MOV -14). The Jets are 2-3-1 getting 6 or more points (1-2-1 in away games, MOV -7, -31, -14 and -2). Nothing here to scare me off the game. Really rather encouraging for a bet on MIN.
There is not a general rule for all teams about spreads but this late in the year you usually have enough info on how teams have performed in similar mismatches to decide what games the spread is uncomfortable for.
This is why you should be leery of giving up so many points. GB doesn't need to and shouldn't play the same strategy as the first half with a big lead. ATL had no track record as a dog of more than 6.5 points. Some teams do well in garbage point time while others are ineffective. I am not sure which ATL is but yesterday they wouldn't give up and played effectively when behind big.
Last edited by Three; 12-09-2014 at 06:02 AM.
The NFL is all about wins and losses. Coaches live and die with them. SF 49ers are 7-6 and talk is of jumping ship despite key wins this season. Most could care less about the score...only the W matters. In a rare case, someone may have an old score to settle. Giving beyond 7.5 falls in line with handicapping 2 year old maidens and between the 2s in blackjack. Just too much variance.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks