Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Math Demon]

Most of the time they run a lot but sometimes they just start the game throwing for whatever reason. If it works great for them they have a lead to sift to the run with but in the 3 games it didn't they hardly ran the entire game on a run pass percentage basis. Like I have been saying the run production is not the issue in these games but becoming to 1 dimensional is. Tey can't prematurely decide they must go with a pass happy attack because of the score. DAL, KC and SEA all stick with the run being a key part of a balanced attack even when way behind.

I think you may be right about BAL and its game plan. They started out passing which resulted in three 3-and-outs. Fell behind early 0-10


But what is surprising is the early ineptitude of QB Fitz and Luck. But only IND is behind at this point, and only by 5 points. Still, NOT the dominating performance I expected from HOU & IND. STL is whipping WAS, though!


I don't have enough time for the 4 PM games. I will probably pass on all of them.



Update: It's now KC-2.5 vs KC+1.5. I guess the ARZ injury news may have filtered through. Pick STL-2.5 vs ARZ (at STL) for TNF. It's also SEA-1.5 from SEA+1.5. No plays in 4 PM games.

[Math Demon]

I second that! I wish the best of luck to all our favorite and/or home teams on their quest for the playoffs.

As for the teams we bet on, the last thing I want is an exciting game. I always want them to create blow-out leads by halftime.
__

To anyone new to this thread, please read ALL the posts for the past few weeks. Read all the points and counterpoints, read all your outside sources, then make your own decisions.


Here's what I think are the biggest mismatches for this week:

1. HOU - 5 (-110) at JAX ($110 to win $100)
2. IND - 3 (-105) at CLE ($105 to win $100)
3. STL - 3 (-105) at WAS ($105 to win $100)
___

4. at CIN - 3 (-125) vs PIT was too expensive at -125.

Parlayed #1 to #4 for $10 to win $116.

Teased 1, 2, 4 & 5 for $10 to win $45: HOU - 2, IND (pk), CIN (pk), BAL + 6
___

5. BAL + 3 (-105) at MIA ($105 to win $100)
6. BAL ML +135 & Under 45½ (quarter-bet, 3.49:1)
7. DAL - 3 @ CHI (TNF - $100 to win $91: already won)
8. DAL - 3 & Over 51 (TNF - $50 to win $130; already won)

Depending on success/trends on 1 PM games and 3 PM odds, I may bet, parlay or tease the 4 PM games. No play unless updated before 4 PM.

a. KC (pk) at ARZ
b. SEA + 1 @ PHI & Under 48 | SEA ML +110 & Under 48
c. SFO - 8.5 @ OAK
d. DEN - 10 vs BUF

SNF & MNF:
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½
MNF: GB - 13 vs ATL

{QUOTE=Math Demon;147491}

I second that! I wish the best of luck to all our favorite and/or home teams on their quest for the playoffs.

As for the teams we bet on, the last thing I want is an exciting game. I always want them to create blow-out leads by halftime.
__

To anyone new to this thread, please read ALL the posts for the past few weeks. Read all the points and counterpoints, read all your outside sources, then make your own decisions.


Here's what I think are the biggest mismatches for this week:

1. HOU - 5 (-110) at JAX ($110 to win $100) -- WON! (HOU 27, JAX 13)
2. IND - 3 (-105) at CLE ($105 to win $100) -- LOST by 2! (IND 25, CLE 24) -- IND failed at two 2-point conversions in Q3 & Q4.
3. STL - 3 (-105) at WAS ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (STL 24, WAS 0)
___

4. at CIN - 3 (-125) vs PIT was too expensive at -125.

Parlayed #1 to #4 for $10 to win $116. -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)

Teased 1, 2, 4 & 5 for $10 to win $45: HOU - 2, IND (pk), CIN (pk), BAL + 6 -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)
___

5. BAL + 3 (-105) at MIA ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
6. BAL ML +135 & Under 45½ (quarter-bet, $25 to win $87.25) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
7. DAL - 3 @ CHI (TNF - $100 to win $91: already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
8. DAL - 3 & Over 51 (TNF - $50 to win $130; already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)



Depending on success/trends on 1 PM games and 3 PM odds, I may bet, parlay or tease the 4 PM games. No plays on 4 PM games.

a. KC (pk) at ARZ
b. SEA + 1 @ PHI & Under 48 | SEA ML +110 & Under 48
c. SFO - 8.5 @ OAK
d. DEN - 10 vs BUF

SNF & MNF:
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½
MNF: GB - 13 vs ATL


{/QUOTE}


Before everybody starts telling me how wrong I was; I can't hear you! I'm too busy counting my money.

It wasn't pretty, but an ATS-win is all that matters.


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[Three]

Yes. My boys stayed the storm. Go Raven!!!

[Three]

1. HOU - 5 (-110) at JAX ($110 to win $100) -- WON! (HOU 27, JAX 13)
2. IND - 3 (-105) at CLE ($105 to win $100) -- LOST by 2! (IND 25, CLE 24) -- IND failed at two 2-point conversions in Q3 & Q4.
3. STL - 3 (-105) at WAS ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (STL 24, WAS 0)
___

4. at CIN - 3 (-125) vs PIT was too expensive at -125.

Parlayed #1 to #4 for $10 to win $116. -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)

Teased 1, 2, 4 & 5 for $10 to win $45: HOU - 2, IND (pk), CIN (pk), BAL + 6 -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)
___

5. BAL + 3 (-105) at MIA ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
6. BAL ML +135 & Under 45½ (quarter-bet, $25 to win $87.25) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
7. DAL - 3 @ CHI (TNF - $100 to win $91: already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
8. DAL - 3 & Over 51 (TNF - $50 to win $130; already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)

Nice picks. WTG MD.

[Math Demon]

Nice picks. WTG MD.

I was flipping through 4 games, BUT I was watching the end of IND @ CLE game in real-time. I was hoping for a successful 2-point conversion in the last minute for an ATS PUSH. So close!


I'm pretty sure I looked at IND/Luck's performance on natural grass fields, but I must have ignored it.

IND on grass: PF = 33.8, PA = 31.8, mov = +2
IND in open stadiums: PF = 35.5, PA = 30.8, mov = +4.8.

Yeah! IND's performance in grass fields or open stadiums were too CLOSE to the spread to bet. Oh well, we've learned something.

[Three]

Oh well, we've learned something.

Yep. Being proven wrong or doing something wrong is where lessons are learned. Like I have said repeatedly I love being proven wrong. That is were I learn something. People that can't get that are doomed to not learn the same lesson over and over again.

[Math Demon]

Yep. Being proven wrong or doing something wrong is where lessons are learned. Like I have said repeatedly I love being proven wrong. That is were I learn something. People that can't get that are doomed to not learn the same lesson over and over again.

So... can you help understand the IND @ CLE game? At one point, IND was just 4 for 14 in 3D conversion.

Also, what boggles my mind was when Luck was being sacked at the end zone, he decided NOT to take a safety (or an intentional grounding call). Instead he fumbled giving CLE their first TD. And that sucks! Those 5 extra points would have them cover ATS.
__

Feel free to email me any analysis, if you want. While we're at it, why did HOU suck in the first half?
__

Early tip: Take STL -2.5 vs ARZ (at STL)

[moses]

Wow it is worse than I thought, Exoter's cheese has really slid of his cracker. I have never owned somebody's head this bad before. It is really weird.

...And I thought I had too much time on my hands. Still, I'd buy either one of you a beer.

[Math Demon]

{QUOTE=Math Demon;147491}

I second that! I wish the best of luck to all our favorite and/or home teams on their quest for the playoffs.

As for the teams we bet on, the last thing I want is an exciting game. I always want them to create blow-out leads by halftime.
__

To anyone new to this thread, please read ALL the posts for the past few weeks. Read all the points and counterpoints, read all your outside sources, then make your own decisions.


Here's what I think are the biggest mismatches for this week:

1. HOU - 5 (-110) at JAX ($110 to win $100) -- WON! (HOU 27, JAX 13)
2. IND - 3 (-105) at CLE ($105 to win $100) -- LOST by 2! (IND 25, CLE 24) -- IND failed at two 2-point conversions in Q3 & Q4.
3. STL - 3 (-105) at WAS ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (STL 24, WAS 0)
___

4. at CIN - 3 (-125) vs PIT was too expensive at -125.

Parlayed #1 to #4 for $10 to win $116. -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)

Teased 1, 2, 4 & 5 for $10 to win $45: HOU - 2, IND (pk), CIN (pk), BAL + 6 -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)
___

5. BAL + 3 (-105) at MIA ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
6. BAL ML +135 & Under 45½ (quarter-bet, $25 to win $87.25) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
7. DAL - 3 @ CHI (TNF - $100 to win $91: already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
8. DAL - 3 & Over 51 (TNF - $50 to win $130; already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)



Depending on success/trends on 1 PM games and 3 PM odds, I may bet, parlay or tease the 4 PM games. No plays on 4 PM games.

a. KC (pk) at ARZ
b. SEA + 1 @ PHI & Under 48 | SEA ML +110 & Under 48
c. SFO - 8.5 @ OAK
d. DEN - 10 vs BUF

SNF & MNF:
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½
MNF: GB - 13 vs ATL


{/QUOTE}


Before everybody starts telling me how wrong I was; I can't hear you! I'm too busy counting my money.

It wasn't pretty, but an ATS-win is all that matters.
.

Talk about being lucky ... Good call on the "no plays" on the 4 PM games. I would have gone 2-3.

a. KC (pk) at ARZ -- WRONG!!
b. SEA + 1 @ PHI & Under 48 | SEA ML +110 & Under 48 -- CORRECT & CORRECT
c. SFO - 8.5 @ OAK -- WRONG!!
d. DEN - 10 vs BUF -- WRONG!!
____

SNF: No play!


NE is 6-0 (since 2013), 8-2 (since 2012), after a loss.
BUT NE does not play well on grass: 0-9 ATS on last 9 games on grass. 3-7 O/U on last 10 games on grass.


SD on grass: 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U.
SD is desperate because of their remaining schedule: NE, DEN, SFO and KC. NE has SD, MIA, NYJ and BUF.


.

[Exoter175]

Last week sucked, that's what I get for picking Thanksgiving/TNF games.

Went 2-4 last week, which brings me to 10-11 on the the BJ forum this year on O/U picks, hopefully we can head in the right direction this week.

1. KC @ ARI 40.5 take the Over
2. NE @ SD 51.5 take the Over
3. CAR @ NO 49.5 take the Under
4. TB @ DET 41.5 take the Over
5. PIT @ CIN 47 take the Under

Wooooooooooweeeee did I get smoked this week, Even though the Patriots game is still going right now, I'm going to assume that I've lost it, I don't see 25 points being scored in the 4th quarter of this one.

Man, who saw Cam Newton and Carolina finally having a productive offensive day today? Answer: Absolutely nobody, though we've all been waiting for Cam to get back to being Cam. I've seen him floating around in FFL's as a free agent a lot this year, which has never been the case before.

Absolutely SMOKED FFL's this week going 6-0, and 54-0 against all teams in those leagues, bringing my YTD numbers to 60-24 record, 594-162 against all teams. Rather, I will have when Tuesday comes since we still have to play MNF and finish this SNF game before it goes effective.

Doing the "happy" dance right now, as I've made the playoffs in all 6 leagues for the 3rd straight year (this time as the #1 and #2 seeds, depending on leagues), looking to go back to back to back x2 as champion, and one league as back to back champion.

Happy days!

[Math Demon]

{QUOTE=Math Demon;147491}

SNF & MNF:
SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½

MNF: GB - 13 vs ATL

{/QUOTE}

{QUOTE=Math Demon;147577}

SNF: No play!

NE is 6-0 (since 2013), 8-2 (since 2012), after a loss.
BUT NE does not play well on grass: 0-9 ATS on last 9 games on grass. 3-7 O/U on last 10 games on grass.

SD on grass: 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U.
SD is desperate because of their remaining schedule: NE, DEN, SFO and KC. NE has SD, MIA, NYJ and BUF.

{/QUOTE}

SNF: NE - 4 @ SD & Under 52½


Aaaaarrrgh!

I left parlay money (2.6x or 2.64x) on the table!

Instead of trusting previously-performed analysis, I saw some last-minute stats on NE's performance on grass, which looked convincing (0-9 ATS in last 9 games).


{QUOTE=Math Demon;147577}

NE does not play well on grass: 0-9 ATS on last 9 games on grass. 3-7 O/U on last 10 games on grass.

{/QUOTE}

For a safer bet, I had almost bet the "Under 52½", but didn't. I guess I wanted to protect today's lead.

Oh well! There's always next week. As long as I keep improving at predicting ATS, it's never truly a loss.


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[Math Demon]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000439530/article/bears-have-case-of-buyers-remorse-with-jay-cutler



Unlike exchanging an unwanted or poor holiday gift, the Chicago Bears are stuck with Jay Cutler. But that doesn't mean they are enjoying it.

NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport reported on NFL GameDay Morning that the Bears are having a "serious case of buyer's remorse."


Shhhhhhhhh. You hear that? It's all of Chicago laughing, painfully.


The Bears signed Cutler to a seven-year, $126.7 million contract this offseason, including $54 million guaranteed, which was met with skepticism from Windy City fans the day the ink dried.

According to Rapoport, there is serious doubt within the organization that Cutler can lead them where it wants to go -- namely, the Super Bowl. Rapoport added that one big problem for Cutler comes in the run game, in which he too often does not check out of bad plays -- a reason for ground issues in Chicago.

There is a serious "frustration" with the way Cutler has played this season, and, according to Rapoport, the team considered benching him during his dismal showing versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers three weeks ago. However, the Bears didn't, mainly because Jimmy Clausen is the backup.

If the Bears were able to trade Cutler, they'd save $12.5 million against the salary cap next year. Two problems with that scenario: Who is going to trade for your mistake? And, what's Plan B? Clausen 2015?

Cutler isn't the only reason behind Chicago's struggles this season, but he's the man who will be under the most heat in the next several months.


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[Three]

That was a really bad contract. Their team is crippled with that kind of money for a QB that is a bust. They are stuck with him for 2 years unless they can find a sucker to take on his salary.