I made very good points of what the historical data is not applicable. You not reading them and then commenting just fits that troll definition. I used away games because this is an away game. DAL ran first 80% of the games from the get go and passed with a small lead. Basically everything Exitor said they didn't do.
Since yopu didn't want to read the long fact filled informative version before commenting, as is your MO, I will sum it up. To sum up the nfl doesn't want to lose the DAL national audience in December so the make sure DAL is playing their historically best division rivals and traditional playoff teams in recent years to keep that audience trained to the NFL most marketable product. When they scheduled this game the NFL expected CHI to be a good contending team (since they aren't division rivals) and booked the game for December. Your stats are based and the results are primarily because the teams that DAL faces in December are top quality playoff contenders. The results aren't because DAL can't play in December. CHI doesn't currently fit the mold for the DAL opponents that cast the historic record of DAL in Decembers. That means you are comparing DAL playing a dozen or more perennial playoff teams and top division rivals that were usually also perennial playoff teamsin a game where they are facing a team jockeying for their best draft pick. that is just a really bad use of historical statistical data.
Yes, the historical trend is for DAL to face their toughest divisional opponents and an array of the top playoff teams in recent years in December in order to draw a huge audience for a nationally marketed team when interest in some football games and teams are waning. Basically DAL historically plays 4 or 5 December playoff games without the playoff sudden death implications. CHI does not fit into the historic trend so the historic trend does not apply to this game. It is not hard for someone that sees stats in their context to get but for someone that blindly uses stats they look beyond the obvious issue with the stat for this game.
The more you talk about the "experts" telling everyone that DAL can't play in December because of a record from years of games that don't represent this game the more I think this is a good opportunity. Given the line and my assessment it was a borderline play. Sharps know "expert" consensus that is wrong is where great value bets are made. If you are right about expert consensus the line should move this weak as people bet CHI. Unfortunately 3 is toughest hill for a line to cross due to its frequency of occurrence being so much higher than other MOV so the value may be in the odds that you can get taking DAL rather than a line move. No, it looks like the Sharps got their early bets in and moved the line to -4 or worse. I missed the opportunity. My old boss at the sports handicapping service I worked for years ago must have got his bet down. The books that haven't barred him bet restrict him and move the lines for the games as soon as he bets so fast it must be programmed into their software.
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