It is your money. I suggest you research the affect of margin of victory on different lines, teasing different numbers and deciding how much over a line must a prediction be to make it worth it. All these things revolve around margin of victory frequencies. Most bookies changed their teaser odds in the last year or two because any fool could make money by understanding the value behind moving the spread across certain numbers. You are missing the easy money but these factors are still very important part of handicapping.Originally Posted by ZenKinG
The difference between +1 and +1.5 is almost nothing. Tease the +1 and you pick up MOV 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and push the 7. Tease the +1.5 and you pick up MOV 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7. The frequency of MOV for these numbers and up to the number you want to buy:
2: 3.45%
3: 15.67%
4: 5.17%
5: 2.96%
6: 5.55%
7: 9.67%
8: 3.11%
9: 1.50%
10: 6.03%
As you can see that 1 point move is worth 2.5 times more when it is the 3 than the 10 and about 1.5 times more when it is the 7. A lot of handicapping is managing these MOV frequencies and knowing their value. The difference in the lines +2.5 to +3 to +3.5 is huge. The difference in the lines +7.5 to +9.5 is not. the 10 is an important number. It is the third highest MOV frequency but it isn't much better than 4, 6 and 14. Teasing it really isn't that great a move but it is cheaper than buying than point. For teasers you would love to pick up the 3, 4, 6, and 7 along with whatever other numbers come with them. If I was thinking I would have teased SEA +7.5 to +1.5 when it was available. I missed that opportunity.
When I have a line of -2.5, I need a predicted MOV 5 points. When I have a line of -8, I need a predicted MOV of 12.5 points. Those 2 points shaved from what is necessary over the spread is because of the MOV frequencies of the numbers in between. The score differential in football is not linear. Each increment has its own frequency of occurrence.
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