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Thread: Sharky's NFL play of the week

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  1. 12-07-2014, 01:41 PM #1
    Three
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    Quote Originally Posted by Math Demon View Post
    1. HOU - 5 (-110) at JAX ($110 to win $100) -- WON! (HOU 27, JAX 13)
    2. IND - 3 (-105) at CLE ($105 to win $100) -- LOST by 2! (IND 25, CLE 24) -- IND failed at two 2-point conversions in Q3 & Q4.
    3. STL - 3 (-105) at WAS ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (STL 24, WAS 0)
    ___

    4. at CIN - 3 (-125) vs PIT was too expensive at -125.

    Parlayed #1 to #4 for $10 to win $116. -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)

    Teased 1, 2, 4 & 5 for $10 to win $45: HOU - 2, IND (pk), CIN (pk), BAL + 6 -- LOST! (CIN 21, PIT 42)
    ___

    5. BAL + 3 (-105) at MIA ($105 to win $100) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
    6. BAL ML +135 & Under 45½ (quarter-bet, $25 to win $87.25) -- WON! (BAL 28, MIA 13)
    7. DAL - 3 @ CHI (TNF - $100 to win $91: already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
    8. DAL - 3 & Over 51 (TNF - $50 to win $130; already won) -- WON! (DAL 41, CHI 28)
    Nice picks. WTG MD.
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  2. 12-07-2014, 01:58 PM #2
    Math Demon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Nice picks. WTG MD.

    I was flipping through 4 games, BUT I was watching the end of IND @ CLE game in real-time. I was hoping for a successful 2-point conversion in the last minute for an ATS PUSH. So close!


    I'm pretty sure I looked at IND/Luck's performance on natural grass fields, but I must have ignored it.

    IND on grass: PF = 33.8, PA = 31.8, mov = +2
    IND in open stadiums: PF = 35.5, PA = 30.8, mov = +4.8.

    Yeah! IND's performance in grass fields or open stadiums were too CLOSE to the spread to bet. Oh well, we've learned something.
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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  3. 12-07-2014, 02:06 PM #3
    Three
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    Quote Originally Posted by Math Demon View Post
    Oh well, we've learned something.
    Yep. Being proven wrong or doing something wrong is where lessons are learned. Like I have said repeatedly I love being proven wrong. That is were I learn something. People that can't get that are doomed to not learn the same lesson over and over again.
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  4. 12-07-2014, 02:18 PM #4
    Math Demon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Yep. Being proven wrong or doing something wrong is where lessons are learned. Like I have said repeatedly I love being proven wrong. That is were I learn something. People that can't get that are doomed to not learn the same lesson over and over again.
    So... can you help understand the IND @ CLE game? At one point, IND was just 4 for 14 in 3D conversion.

    Also, what boggles my mind was when Luck was being sacked at the end zone, he decided NOT to take a safety (or an intentional grounding call). Instead he fumbled giving CLE their first TD. And that sucks! Those 5 extra points would have them cover ATS.
    __

    Feel free to email me any analysis, if you want. While we're at it, why did HOU suck in the first half?
    __

    Early tip: Take STL -2.5 vs ARZ (at STL)
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
    .
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