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David Spence: Re: How many aces equal a full deck?
One other thought: as the number of tracked cards increases, the ln2 approximation becomes less accurate, as the median approaches the mean.
Consider the degenerate case: what's the median number of cards dealt from a single deck by the time you see all 52 cards? Certainly, the median=mean=52, and ln2 x 52 is a horrible estimate. I think the estimate works best when you're looking for a single result (e.g. a single ace of clubs, a single 28 in roulette, a single 3 on a die, etc.).
So I'm still leaning towards the median solution for this problem, but with an accurate calculation of it.
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