Chance of dealer busting of each upcard at various index count

[Norm]

TC of +12?
Doubling 3,2 v 5?

The user who is looking for advice is a newbie that you and Freight have been constantly putting down and requesting banishment from here. Do you really think that suggesting to him that such an astoundingly rare event is worth him investing time adding bust rates into his strategy? YES, be careful about responding to other users.

[iCountNTrack]

Careful with blanket statements like this.

While not a common situation, here's a play I did a year or so ago:
TC +12. I had 3,2 v 5. Knowing the bust rate for a dealer 5 is over 50% at that TC (from the graphs referenced by Doghand), I doubled (and won). Granted, not a common scenario, but here, knowing the bust rate made the play for me.

Sorry i cannot agree, this is still voodoo, you made an incorrect playing decision based on the dealer bust rate instead of basing on the correct index play and sacrificed your EV. Hi-Lo full table indices doesn't even have an index for doubling a hard 5.

Again you should base your decision on the correct index for an EV or SCORE maximizing playing strategy

[Norm]

Hate to think of an RA index for this play. The non-linearity of BJ makes for odd twists and turns at fringe counts.

[Secretariat]

My wrong for the Yellow "threat" from ICNT. It wasn't his intention.

Now, with 32v5 or 32v6, many scenarios would dictate to double down. Don't even need to be at TC12
For example at DD, H17, TC7 with one extra 7, one extra 8 and one extra 9 at the 52 card mark, dealer bust rate becomes 54%.
DD become the better play by 2% and 1% over hitting and it increases significantly as the TC goes up.
At TC 12, normal 789s the Dealer bust rate goes up to 58% and 57%. DD is the superior play by 8% against 5 and by 5% against 6.

[iCountNTrack]

This thread has quickly degraded in quality. Locked