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Thread: system basics for money management streaks

  1. #14
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    The sequence that is 87.5% is that you will have at least 1 head. If you had 1 head on the first trial or the second that condition is already met before the third trial so the third trial can be heads or tails. The only sequence that guarantees the third trial is a head is if you eliminate the trials that already had a head. If you eliminate the first two trials because you know the third trial must be a head to satisfy the criterion of at least one head the sequence goes from 1- (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2) to 1 - 1/2 = 50%. that is what we have been telling you.

    You are quoting the instances of at least one head as influencing the likelihood of the third trial but you already know trial 1 and 2 outcomes. If one of them, was a head then you could flip a tails on the last toss and still be in that 87.5%. So to determine the likelihood that the third trial will be heads you need to already know the outcome of the first two trials so the likelihood of those trials are 1- (1 x 1 x 1/2) to 1 - 1/2 = 50%. Since you already know those trials were tails the likelihood they were tails is 100% or 1/1. You are a victim of a gamblers fallacy of misusing probability to get a false answer.

  2. #15


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    Thanks for the reply, so your saying a 4th 5th or 6th in series has the same probability of occurring since the known flip causes itself to be a 1 in the equation.

    my assertion was not knowing I can back date the series so the last flip will then curve fit the coinflip probability. Your probability came forward during the coin flips but no longer meets the initial probability assumption. I think I am missing something here in my reasoning through this.

  3. #16


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  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by smilesforu View Post
    wager 5
    wager 10
    wager 20
    wager 40
    wager 80
    wager 160 after 5 wins
    what you are describing has already been invented. it is called the reverse-anti paroli-martingale...plus.

  5. #18
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Is there some point to all of this?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  6. #19


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Is there some point to all of this?
    Absolutely none. Idiotic topic. But then again, that's what this sub-forum is all about: idiots posting idiotic topics.

    Don

  7. #20


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    Are you kidding me?(Don and Norm) This is really entertaining. Of course I have only been online for a few months, not years like you guys.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Absolutely none. Idiotic topic. But then again, that's what this sub-forum is all about: idiots posting idiotic topics.

    Don
    Really starting to like this guy, DON!
    A lot of people trying to reinvent the wheel!

  9. #22

  10. #23
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilotzone View Post
    A lot of people trying to reinvent the wheel!
    Dyson already did that.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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