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  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by LauraBlack View Post
    Hello DonS ...
    It's a 6 deck game, btw. I began wonging out at TC -3 using every excuse I could. Leaving, sitting, leaving, sitting ... it was way too often to be comfortable. Sometimes, five or six shoes in a row go negative, especially early. I'd be making excuses every 10 minutes. So, I went to TC -4, and then finally TC -5.
    Sorry not Don but I have a concern that you could possibly be mixing up the running count interpretation with the true counts, is that the case?

  2. #15


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    People can do whatever they're comfortable with, just as long as they realize that, no other factors of cover or otherwise considered, waiting longer than the prescribed departure points costs you money. Period. In general, you should leave with very modest negative counts and not hope against hope that things will turn. This may not be what some people's intuition tells them, but that hardly matters. The math is the math.

    Don
    As everyone knows, I play all. Further, I usually play heads up with a no hole card game. This translates into that most important factor, hands per hour. If I leave a shoe because of a shitty count, then that shoe is dead until someone else shows up – clearly unacceptable to both myself and the house.

    The math may be the math, but it is not necessarily the most practical. I make up shitty counts with loads of index play and speed of play. It works for me.

    The link below describes the speed required.

    https://youtu.be/EUnNn3Dl_2U

  3. #16


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    I wong out at TC -3 in 6-deck games. As noted by other posters, this is less then optimal, but usually works out well for me - about two bathroom breaks and one phone call per session. Usually comes off pretty natural. Any more would look a little too scripted.

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by LauraBlack View Post
    It's a 6 deck game, btw. I began wonging out at TC -3 using every excuse I could. Leaving, sitting, leaving, sitting ... it was way too often to be comfortable. Sometimes, five or six shoes in a row go negative, especially early. I'd be making excuses every 10 minutes. So, I went to TC -4, and then finally TC -5.

    Where I've lost big, it hasn't been in the negative counts so much, it's been in positive counts (> than TC+5). I lost 8 hands in a row at max bet once ... and then yesterday, I lost 6 in a row.

    I wonder if shuffle tracking would help wring a bit more profit from neutral/negative shows. Or a side count of aces. I'm not sure I'm up for that kind of math. I'm not a strong math person. What do you think?
    It is relatively rare to have counts of plus or minus 5 in a shoe. I haven't crunched the numbers, but surely less than 5%. Maybe Bosox is on to something - are you talking true count or running count? If TC, are you sure you aren't making mistakes?

    Also, there's no need for supplying explanations for what you are doing. If you want to wong out, just do it and tell the dealer you'll be back in a few minutes.

    Re shuffle tracking, without top-notch skill in this area, it's extremely rare to find trackable shuffles in the US these days. First, you need a hand shuffled game, which is rare, except at high limits. Second, you need an exploitable shuffle, and I'm not going to comment further on that. I was playing a shoe game recently where the RC increased +24 in one deck. Unfortunately, the cards then went into an ASM...

  5. #18


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    I make up shitty counts with loads of index play and speed of play. It works for me.
    Sorry, not buying it. It's a rationalization. You don't turn water into wine. If you think you're "making up [for] shitty counts," you're just fooling yourself. Negative indices aren't worth dick with minimal bets every time they're employed. The savings aren't "making up" for anything. Speed of play? You prefer losing your money faster rather than slower? Losing is losing.

    Shoe players should be moving around, back-counting, and finding every possible excuse for not playing negative counts. I'm sorry, but you have no magic recipe for surviving bad negative counts. No one does.

    Don

  6. #19


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by LauraBlack View Post
    Hello DonS ...
    It's a 6 deck game, btw. I began wonging out at TC -3 using every excuse I could. Leaving, sitting, leaving, sitting ... it was way too often to be comfortable. Sometimes, five or six shoes in a row go negative, especially early. I'd be making excuses every 10 minutes. So, I went to TC -4, and then finally TC -5.
    That's the whole point. If mid-shoe entry is permitted, you shouldn't be sitting down to those five or six negative shoes. You should be standing, watching them, and then abandoning them when they go bad. And yes, of course, you lose the great majority of your money at high counts, not low ones. What you lose playing low counts is TIME and opportunity. That was the whole point of the optimal departure study.

    Don

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Sorry, not buying it. It's a rationalization. You don't turn water into wine. If you think you're "making up [for] shitty counts," you're just fooling yourself. Negative indices aren't worth dick with minimal bets every time they're employed. The savings aren't "making up" for anything. Speed of play? You prefer losing your money faster rather than slower? Losing is losing.

    Shoe players should be moving around, back-counting, and finding every possible excuse for not playing negative counts. I'm sorry, but you have no magic recipe for surviving bad negative counts. No one does.

    Don
    Sorry Don, but you really missed it. When I refer to hph, they’re only so many hands in a shoe, and then you’re in the next one, which may or may not be a big shoe. When you’re heads up buzzing at a very fast clip, you play a lot of hands and a lot of shoes, and when you’re playing NHC, you’re moving at an even faster clip. I don’t know about you, but I would be delighted to play 1 negative shoe for 1 positive shoe. In fact, if you want to make that 2 negative for 1 positive, I’ll take that ratio too.

    As far as backcounting goes, I’m not prepared to backcount the full lower limit tables. Further, if high limit only has 1 table open, and your heads up, either play all or play nothing. When I do share a table, I wong out where practical.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    Sorry Don, but you really missed it. When I refer to hph, they’re only so many hands in a shoe, and then you’re in the next one, which may or may not be a big shoe. When you’re heads up buzzing at a very fast clip, you play a lot of hands and a lot of shoes, and when you’re playing NHC, you’re moving at an even faster clip. I don’t know about you, but I would be delighted to play 1 negative shoe for 1 positive shoe. In fact, if you want to make that 2 negative for 1 positive, I’ll take that ratio too.

    As far as backcounting goes, I’m not prepared to backcount the full lower limit tables. Further, if high limit only has 1 table open, and your heads up, either play all or play nothing. When I do share a table, I wong out where practical.
    I guess another point here is not only your spread, but how you spread.

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Sorry not Don but I have a concern that you could possibly be mixing up the running count interpretation with the true counts, is that the case?
    Thanks for the reply. No, I'm not confused by the running count/true count. In a situation where the TC is -4 or -5, the running count is in the -20s mid shoe (6 decks). I like to sit in the middle where the discard tray is in my line of vision. Turning my head every now and again toward the discard tray is a tell. It may be that I remember the negative shoes more, but they appear frequently in my experience. I appreciate the question ... thanks.

  10. #23


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by LauraBlack View Post
    Thanks for the reply. No, I'm not confused by the running count/true count. In a situation where the TC is -4 or -5, the running count is in the -20s mid shoe (6 decks). I like to sit in the middle where the discard tray is in my line of vision. Turning my head every now and again toward the discard tray is a tell. It may be that I remember the negative shoes more, but they appear frequently in my experience. I appreciate the question ... thanks.
    Try sitting at 1st or 2nd base...you have clear sight of the discard tray, and you don't have to turn your head. And you can peek at the discards when the dealer and floor people aren't looking.
    And you can count all cards to your left without turning your head also.
    And make sure your deck estimation is on point...it can be tricky with 6 or 8 decks...a lot of people overestimate the TC.
    And of course I agree with Don. If you are playing shoes, you should be avoiding the negative shoes as much as possible without being too suspicious. Overcoming play all negative counts is brutal, no matter how you spread or using negative indexes. And then playing more hands per hour is stupid. If you are playing all then you are losing your money even faster.
    Try to establish yourself as a "table hopper". If you can then drink a little and let them see you.
    Just get away from those negative tables! I know it's hard...but fake a smoke break, or just leave to another table if possible, etc.
    Last edited by Counting_Is_Fun; 07-11-2019 at 08:31 PM.

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    That's the whole point. If mid-shoe entry is permitted, you shouldn't be sitting down to those five or six negative shoes. You should be standing, watching them, and then abandoning them when they go bad. And yes, of course, you lose the great majority of your money at high counts, not low ones. What you lose playing low counts is TIME and opportunity. That was the whole point of the optimal departure study.

    Don
    Thank you for your kind reply. I agree with everything you said. I've got to find some way to incorporate your suggestions without exhibiting the "tell" of being a counter ... any more than I already do. Thanks for taking time to respond.

  12. #25


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Another tip is to play standing up, look like you need to be somewhere and constantly look at your watch. Be ready to dart.

  13. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    ... I don’t know about you, but I would be delighted to play 1 negative shoe for 1 positive shoe. In fact, if you want to make that 2 negative for 1 positive, I’ll take that ratio too....
    freighty...i, too, play tons of heads up...and can get where you are coming from for, and myself, painfully, playing negative shoes....neg indices included...but the math is the math, bro...how do you think you are overcoming these odds??? luck???

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