Adding AA78mTc side count to High Low

[seriousplayer]

If you keep all these things in mind when you try to make an uber system your end result will be much more satisfying. If you want to beat Hiopt2/ASC, start with Hiopt2 and tweak things from there. Don't be foolish and start with a relatively weak system and try to make it outperform Hiopt2/ASC.

He already said in other posts that he doesn't want to start with a stronger count like a level 2 count system. He just want to stick with level 1 like Hi-lo or KO.

[bjanalyst]

Three:
You predicted HL and all your tweaks would come close to or beat Hiopt2/ASC and it wasn't even close to beating Hiopt2/ASC. Stop posting lies.


Just be patient and wait for the KO system sim results and all of your questions will be answered.

And the HL was NEVER my chosen system. My 2nd book is called KO with 45m79c and my third book is called KO with 45m79c and AA89mTc. These were the names of my books published way before I ever posted anything on this forum Do you see HL mentioned anywhere in either of those books?

So HL was never my chosen count. My 4th book is HL with plus/minus side counts where I recommended HL only for the DD game. Even in that book I put the analogous KO system right next to the HL system presented. And there is nowhere in my 4th book that I ever mentioned adding 5m6c as a 2nd side count. 5m6c was a mistake I made in this forum when I saw hard 16 v T was the 2nd most important playing strategy change and it would be nice to increase the CC from 60% to over 90% using 5m6c but overall for the shoe game using 5m6c as a 2nd side count did not work out that well. So I made a mistake! You have to test to see what works best. Anyhow in my 4th book I recommended for the shoe game 5m9c as a 2nd side count to HL with AA78mTc if player insisted in sticking with the balanced HL for the shoe game because they do not like unbalanced counts. But my recommendation even in my 4th book was for the shoe game to use KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c. So I never, ever changed my mind about KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c as my recommended count combination.

So I am sticking by my prediction that KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c will beat HO2 with ASC even for the no LS game. If I am wrong then you can bad mouth me all you want but you have to wait! If LS were being simulated I could say with even more confidently that KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c would definitely beat HO2 with ASC.

[seriousplayer]

Thank you VERY, VERY much! I will send you an email with details and if you have any questions just let me know. I just have to judgmentally decide the RA indices for doubles and splits using CC and AACpTCp to decided if I will increase the EV index by 1, 2 or 3 true count points.

If you do not have time before you leave no problem. There is a lot to do with sim for the KO system with the first task to set up a base KO sims with just the KO count. I will explain all of this in my email to you. The users on this site will just have to wait. I really appreciate your help.

I asked that once the simulation results is posted and your system doesn't outperform Hi-OPT II ASC than I request that you "rest in peace" with your claim that you systems beat Hi-OPT II ASC.

[bjanalyst]

I asked that once the simulation results is posted and your system doesn't outperform Hi-OPT II ASC than I request that you "rest in peace" with your claim that you systems beat Hi-OPT II ASC.

Absolutely. If sims show that the KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c underperforms the HO2 with ASC then yes, I have nothing further to say. The sims have the final say.

I feel fairly confident that KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c will beat HO2 with ASC for the no LS game.

I just wish that LS was being simed as then I could say with almost 100% confidence that the KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c would crush the HO2 with ASC as the LS BC difference between the systems increases even further giving the KO system even more of a betting advantage and also the KO system beats that HO2 system in EVERY SINGLE LATE SURREDNER decision.

[Three]

I feel fairly confident that KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c will beat HO2 with ASC for the no LS game.

It is like you haven't learned anything from all of Gronbog's work and the experts here.

I just wish that LS was being simed as then I could say with almost 100% confidence that the KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c would crush the HO2 with ASC as the LS BC difference between the systems increases even further giving the KO system even more of a betting advantage and also the KO system beats that HO2 system in EVERY SINGLE LATE SURREDNER decision.

Sigh. What makes you think Gronbog can't sim surrender? Of course he can and has been for many years. It won't make a difference. People use Hiopt2/ASC for its power. You keep handicapping that by making it use fewer indices. But it still beats your system and will continue to beat it. The gain from side counting will be proportional to the strength of the playing decisions of the count you are using as a main count. Hiopt2 PE is .67 without even adjusting plays for the ace side count info, while KO PE is .55. Now these are efficiencies not a correlations so they are quantitative comparisons. Hiopt2 starts absolutely about 22% stronger for the plays used to determine PE than KO. Do you honestly believe your tweaks will come close to cutting into the given advantage that Hiopt2 has to start with? If so you have to start learning from this ridiculous thread you have kept alive for far too long instead of trying to hold onto your delusions.

[bjanalyst]

He already said in other posts that he doesn't want to start with a stronger count like a level 2 count system. He just want to stick with level 1 like Hi-lo or KO.

There is no reason to start with a more complicated base count than the simple level one KO count. Using psrc = KO + k*(5m7c) you can derive all kinds of different level counts. For exmaple, brc = KO + (1/2)*(5m7c) where you get a level 3 count with tag values of 1, 1, 1, 1.5, 1, 0.5, 0, 0, -1, -1 for 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T, Ace respectively all derived from two smple level one counts, KO and 5m7c.

Now consider something more complicated. Consider standing on hard 14 v T which I discussed previously. Stand on hard 14 v T when KO - 1.5*(5m7c) >= crc(7). See attached file. Here the 7's are counted as +2.5, the fives as -0.5 and other ranks as zero or 1. So what count level would this be? This would be a level 5 count and all derived from two simple plus minus counts, KO and 5m7c, using the optimal values of "k" for each situation.
hard 14 v T.jpg

[bjanalyst]

[QUOTE=Three;265057
Sigh. What makes you think Gronbog can't sim surrender? .[/QUOTE]

I never, ever said Gronbog could not simulate LS.

Look, we have already imposed on Gronbog so much that I feel asking him to do anything else would be stretching it.

So I will not start imposing on him to do LS also. If he wants to do it later if the no LS sims show positive results then he can do that but I am not going to ask him.

We need to be thanking him for everything that he has done so far and for being so grateful to help us all out.

[Gronbog]

Adding surrender to the configuration of the sim is trivial. The software already supports it. Just specify the rules for the game you are most interested in.

[Three]

There is no reason to start with a more complicated base count than the simple level one KO count.

I thought you said you were fan of alienated and read his stuff. He said the gain from side counting is proportional to the strength of the count it is added to.

So if you are going to go to the trouble of side counting you want to start with a relatively high PE count, not the lowest PE counts out there.

[lij45o6]

For anyone interested in the BC, PE, and IC for known systems:

https://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm

[bjanalyst]

Adding surrender to the configuration of the sim is trivial. The software already supports it. Just specify the rules for the game you are most interested in.

Great! You can do LS also. I thought doing LS would be a big problem. I had stated earlier the BC of KO + (1/2)*(5m7c) vs HO2 - 2*(Adef) increases even more when LS EoR are used and also KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c beat HO2 with ASC for every single LS decision. So with LS, KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c must definitely beat HO2 with ASC.

I just emailed you the no LS game with values of k1 and k2 and RA indices for doubles and splits. For now you can do the no LS game. I am tired after putting this all together so another day I can give you the info for the LS game which you can then add.

I remember reading Griffin writing and I remember an article I read from Arnold Snyder that if you have a good hand, that is, if you have an 11, 20 or blackjack, you should sometimes take insurance even if it is slightly negative expectation since taking insurance reduces risk. So I wrote under insure if crc(3) < KO + AA89mTc < crc(4) and player has an 11, 20 or blackjack. This would reduce risk and increase SCORE. This is easy for a person to do but I do not think you can include it in your sims so just ignore it. I put it in there just to be complete.


I will attach the values of k1 and k2 and RA indices that I emailed you for others to review. I also included cards seen during the current round which I do not expect you to program in your sims. But this information is free and on the table so why not use it for borderline situations. The extra gain is probably very small but why throw away something for free.

Thanks again for all of your help and if you have any questions on what I sent you, please feel free to email me your questions.
KO AA89mTc 5m7c sims (1).jpg
KO AA89mTc 5m7c sims (2).jpg
KO AA89mTc 5m7c sims (3).jpg

[bjanalyst]

I thought you said you were fan of alienated and read his stuff. He said the gain from side counting is proportional to the strength of the count it is added to.

So if you are going to go to the trouble of side counting you want to start with a relatively high PE count, not the lowest PE counts out there.

I want to keep things as simple as possible. Level 1 counts are simple. That is why I chose if for my primary count. Not sure if a level 2 count as primacy count would make much of a difference because by taking linear combinations of the primary count and side counts your derived counts can be all different levels but you are actually keeping only level 1 counts which are easy to keep.

At any rate, let's see what happens with these sims for KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c.

And I will attach a couple of files to show why I believe that even for the no LS game, KO with AA89mTc and 5m7c will beat HO2 w ASC. The first exhibit show that KO system beats 8, ties 8 and loses 1 with the I18. The second exhibit shows the results of 49 playing decisions and here KO wins 25, ties 14 and losses 10. So PE of KO system must be higher than PE of HO2 w ASC. Then for no LS the BC of KO + (1/2)*(5m7c) is almost 0.7% higher than the BC of HO2 - 2*(Adef). Previously BC of HL + (1/3)*(5m6c) was over 1% below HO2 - 2*(Adef), with KO + (1/2)*(5m7c) the tables are turned and now HO2 - 2*(Adef) is the underdog for betting.

So it looks like KO system beats HO2 w ASC for both PE and BE so that is why I think simulations will show that KO with 5m7c and AA89mTc will beat HO2 with ASC. That is my prediction.
KO 5m7c AA89mTc (1).jpg
KO 5m7c AA89mTc (2).jpg

[lij45o6]

I want to keep things as simple as possible.

You failed the second you added a side count to *any* system.

Done. Over. End of story!