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Thread: When is a discipline considered proven

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    When is a discipline considered proven

    I do not consider myself a gambler but I have for years enjoyed friendly, low stakes poker games with friends over the winter months.

    A friend pricked my interest in blackjack about 10 years ago and I took the time to learn basic betting strategy. Shortly thereafter he died and I never played the game again until late last summer. A new acquaintance went to the casino regularly to play slots which have no appeal for me. I decided to sometimes accompany him but I would play blackjack. I had to take some time to commit basic strategy to memory again. While doing so I came up with a discipline to play the game which I tested out on free on line blackjack sites. I became skeptical of those sites when one almost always let me win, another almost always beat me and a third showed me starting cards where I could predict the next card that would be dealt to me.

    I decided to try my discipline at the casino and I would start with a beginning/basic bet of $5. I lost $175 my first session which I thought might be partially because sometimes I could not recall fast enough whether I should double down, etc. It took me three more blackjack sessions to get into positive territory and I have never been in negative territory since then. After 50 games I was ahead of the casino by $605, About $12 average profit per game, not much but positive.

    My discipline at the local casino could be applied up to a beginning basic bet of $25 due to their $500 maximum bet limit. My discipline does not allow me a choice on how to play a hand. Consequently, had I played a beginning basic bet of $25 I would have wound up more than $3,000 ahead of the boat after those 50 games.

    Recently I started a new round of games with a beginning basic better $10. After 20 sessions I am ahead of the casino by $615. It will not stay that way and I am looking for it to average out to about $25 average profit per session after 50 sessions.

    I am pretty excited about the potential for this discipline but I have no close friends who are into blackjack and consequently have no one to discuss it with.

    My question is at what point should I consider this discipline a proven method to consistently win?

    jack g

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    At no point, because your "discipline" isn't a proven winner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
    At no point, because your "discipline" isn't a proven winner.

    Exoter

    Is there a reason why a discipline can never be a proven winner? I realize that is the case up to this point but are you saying that if this pans out for, say 1000 games, it would still not be a proven winner?

    jack g

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    Quote Originally Posted by jack g View Post
    Exoter

    Is there a reason why a discipline can never be a proven winner? I realize that is the case up to this point but are you saying that if this pans out for, say 1000 games, it would still not be a proven winner?

    jack g
    First of all, I think you're using the wrong word to describe whatever it is you're trying to describe. Second of all, to be "proven" it requires actual proof.

    From what I gathered from your story, you learned basic strategy and have won. Unfortunately, basic strategy alone has proven to be a loser, albeit slowly.

  5. #5


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    It sounds like you are playing basic strategy, and maybe not even at 100.0%. That doesn't give you an advantage. It gives you the least bad disadvantage, without putting in much work. Pop quiz: Dealer has 9, you have 2, A, hit to get 5, then what do you do? You being ahead is just a lucky accident. You have to do more work to have an advantage. There are many legit systems, Hi Lo is most popular. You'll have to read at least a few books and practice and master several new skills, but it is do-able. You are in the right place.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    What kind of "discipline" are you talking about? In the long run, quitting when ahead or setting a loss limit is not going to net profit money. If you are using some betting system (like doubling up after a loss) is going to make money either. Unless you're putting more money in the circle when you have an advantage and less when you have a disadvantage (with a large enough difference), or always playing with an actual advantage, you're going to end up losing.

    What is your criteria to leave the casino during a session? Do you have any type of betting pattern or technique that you use?

    As far as how much you have to play to "prove" a system works....the short answer is: It doesn't work. The long answer is: You gotta do the math to figure out how many hands you gotta play & amount to be up to determine if it can be successful.

    For instance, if 2 people say they can predict a coin flip. If the first guy got 55 of 100 flips right, that's nothing particularly special. If he got 55,000 out of 100,000 right, then he's got something. If the second guy got 90 out of 100 flips right, that's pretty damn good proof he's got something....no need to test if he can do 90k out of 100k. If a third guy got 50,010 out of 100,000 then nothing special. He might need to do something like 500,010,000,000 out of 1,000,000,000,000 to show his results are due to some psychic power, even though he'd be right at a mere rate of 50.001%.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Quote Originally Posted by jack g View Post
    " ... a proven method to consistently win?
    STUDY: The Law of Large Numbers.

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    Senior Member Joe Mama's Avatar
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    Perhaps this is a new form of disciplined voodoo -- give it a whirl!

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    Quote Originally Posted by exoter175 View Post
    ...to be "proven" it requires actual proof....
    lol

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    This thread has given me a huge headache.

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    lol i think i'm moving to pai gao lol ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    This thread has given me a huge headache.
    Just this one? How about 90% of all of them? :-)

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by jack g View Post
    My question is at what point should I consider this discipline a proven method to consistently win?
    After about 10 million rounds of play.

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