A unique play in all of blackjack

[Freightman]

Secretariat said

Interesting problem. A6A would be an exceptional multicard S18 situation where hitting is still the better play. On the other hand if you get A7vA and somehow, you know that the burn card is A,2 or 3, standing would be the better

Interesting. You are referring to 3 separate situations VS. 1. In any of those situations, you still need to know the count. Further, where in the deck are you - what is the specific density of those cards in their specific situations. With a known ace burn card for example, you could adjust your insurance threshold given other factors. I would think that excluding high probability dealer blackjack, beyond strike point, that hitting would be the way to go. You would insure in that case. You should know the density of other card groupings as a whole before making that decision.

They’re similarities in decision making criteria comparable to 16 v dealer 10 in positive counts where the 6 is one of your cards.

[Freightman]

Hi Don,

I have added the probabilities of drawing the different hands, as expected drawing a 2 card soft 18 is by far more probable than multiple card soft 18, if we look at locally weighted probabilities 85% we would hit the soft 18 vs the dealer's ace.

Attachment 4626

Just to confirm my curiosity, my presumption is that your 2 card table is a BS decision or for that matter, a true 0 decision. Is it possible to create the table at various true counts - my real question being - at what positive true count is it proper, or is it not proper to pass A7 v Ace. Given factors, I will hit up to Insurance strike point and pass beyond.

Further, is there a table available displaying a point where it is proper to pass 14,15 or 16 v dealer ace.

[21forme]

2. Las Vegas?

I no longer subscribe to CBJN, so can't verify. I recall Aria and Bellagio having S17 DD until about 5 years ago. Given the deterioration in conditions, I'd be surprised if any S17 DD games still exist in Vegas.

Fine Tuner posted a list of DD games in this thread on BJ21: https://bj21.com/boards/green-chip-f...?page=1#unread

None of them are S17, but those don't include HL games.

[Freightman]

aceside said

I posted something here earlier. Is it deleted?

If you’re referring to a post much earlier this morning - yes it was - including my reply of “I won’t say a word”.

[iCountNTrack]

This study has absolutely nothing to do with counting, it's pure basic strategy. Also a TC of 0 is not the same thing as basic strategy.

[Norm]

Also a TC of 0 is not the same thing as basic strategy.

One day I'll put that in big, flashing letters at the top of the site.

[ShipTheCookies]

One day I'll put that in big, flashing letters at the top of the site.

Right. Hypothetically, three 8's and two 7's are all that remains which is a TC of ZERO. You can be dealt either 7,7 vs 8, 7,8 vs 7 or 8, and 8,8 vs 7. BS in most games says to hit the 7,7 or 7,8 and split the 8,8. The CORRECT play here is to STAND on all occurrences.

[Secretariat]

Secretariat said

Interesting. You are referring to 3 separate situations VS. 1. In any of those situations, you still need to know the count. Further, where in the deck are you - what is the specific density of those cards in their specific situations. With a known ace burn card for example, you could adjust your insurance threshold given other factors. I would think that excluding high probability dealer blackjack, beyond strike point, that hitting would be the way to go. You would insure in that case. You should know the density of other card groupings as a whole before making that decision.

They’re similarities in decision making criteria comparable to 16 v dealer 10 in positive counts where the 6 is one of your cards.

The first two situations I mentioned were off the top. With only 3 or 4 seen cards insurance is not an option. At DD off the top we need to see 8 non tens before taking insurance. As far as the 3rd situation, it could be at any depth and I did not examine all possibilities but it's fair to say that any time we are faced with a close call (like 16 v 10) that the key cards are the biggest factor. If we have Soft 18 the cards that can help our hit the most are 3,2,A. With 16 v 10 (the more 4s and 5s left, the better). Note that I don't mention anything about the count. Don is looking for the optimal "fit all" approach and in that case standing Soft 18 vs A seems to be generally the better play.

[21forme]

aceside said

If you’re referring to a post much earlier this morning - yes it was - including my reply of “I won’t say a word”.

Thumbs up to aceside's posts being deleted.

[Secretariat]

Please, make sure to also add, in big flashing letters too, that playing with a more advanced index strategy that all TCs of +1 are not the same either, just like all TC+2s are not equal. Index play is just a more precise approximation than basic strategy.

[Secretariat]

One day I'll put that in big, flashing letters at the top of the site.

Please, make sure to also add, in big flashing letters too, that playing with a more advanced index strategy that all TCs of +1 are not the same either, just like all TC+2s are not equal. Index play is just a more precise approximation than basic strategy.

[Freightman]

Please, make sure to also add, in big flashing letters too, that playing with a more advanced index strategy that all TCs of +1 are not the same either, just like all TC+2s are not equal. Index play is just a more precise approximation than basic strategy.

To Secretariat
Further, note that additional information, when available, overrides index play.

To Norm
I did goof on my true 0 comment. More proper to say something along the lines of - lower frequency of positive true counts ascending from true 0, lower frequency of negative true counts descending from true 0 - a billion card sim taking everything into account to design 1 overall basic strategy designed not to make money, rather to reduce losses.

[DSchles]

Index play is just a more precise approximation than basic strategy.

OK, let's not get carried away here with the dazzling "look at what I can do" claims. In most games, index play can double the SCORE of just BS. Deciding NOT to make a traditional index play here and there because of a "more advanced index strategy" simply is not of the same magnitude.

In any event, as mentioned above, my original premise had nothing to do with index play. Finally, you all may be interested to know that the correct Hi-Lo index for this DD play is not 0; it's -1.

Don