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Thread: Don/other experts, How to find covariance of a game ?

  1. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    One of these days, you will read BJA3, especially, in this case, pages 24-26, and then I won't have to read, for probably the first time in the past 30 years, about my "faulted math."

    I will say that, for someone who posts something incorrect in virtually every thread that you participate in, you aren't shy. But, that isn't necessarily a good thing.

    Don
    I will definitely read your BJA3, but I must get the money out of blackjack. That is why I am not shy at all.

  2. #67


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Indeed.
    What Im guessing is he was trying to advice against playing multiple hands at max bets following the intuitive logic that more hands = more chances of getting the ace.
    I do find it very surprising that he didn't write anything about the possibility of doing that with minimum bets for steering purposes or to cover for the max bet.
    Since this is the strategy used by almost all sequencing teams (at least the ones I know) maybe he didn't write about it on purpose.

    Hope you are doing well my friend.
    What Snyder meant was: When tracking a specific Ace, using key cards for location and alone with the dealer. If you're not 100% (and you rarely are) sure of the position the Ace will land, keep it simple and play only one hand. By doing this, you will "split the Aces" with the dealer, giving you an overall edge of approximately 9% on each of these trials.

    52% when you get it.
    -34% when the dealer gets it.
    This gives 18% on two trials for a net of 9% per trial.
    G Man

  3. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    What Snyder meant was: When tracking a specific Ace, using key cards for location and alone with the dealer. If you're not 100% (and you rarely are) sure of the position the Ace will land, keep it simple and play only one hand. By doing this, you will "split the Aces" with the dealer, giving you an overall edge of approximately 9% on each of these trials.

    52% when you get it.
    -34% when the dealer gets it.
    This gives 18% on two trials for a net of 9% per trial.
    I generalized this process to the situation of known Ace/Ten ratios. For now, I am in the process of experimenting my new card counting strategy. Thank you for your hard work.

  4. #69


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    I will say that, for someone who posts something incorrect in virtually every thread that you participate in, you aren't shy. But, that isn't necessarily a good thing.
    + infinity

  5. #70


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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    What Snyder meant was: When tracking a specific Ace, using key cards for location and alone with the dealer. If you're not 100% (and you rarely are) sure of the position the Ace will land, keep it simple and play only one hand. By doing this, you will "split the Aces" with the dealer, giving you an overall edge of approximately 9% on each of these trials.

    52% when you get it.
    -34% when the dealer gets it.
    This gives 18% on two trials for a net of 9% per trial.
    I know, but when he says this he is assuming that the alternative to playing one hand is playing multiple hands also with max bets out, and this is not the only alternative, since you can place your max bet in the box where you have the ace tracked and play minimum bets in all other boxes, either for steering purposes, or to cover that max bet by reducing the chance of the ace going to the dealer.
    This is something that every single sequencing team I've seen play does.

  6. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    + infinity
    Education is a rocky path from cocky ignorance to miserable uncertainty.
    --Mark Twain

  7. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    I know, but when he says this he is assuming that the alternative to playing one hand is playing multiple hands also with max bets out, and this is not the only alternative, since you can place your max bet in the box where you have the ace tracked and play minimum bets in all other boxes, either for steering purposes, or to cover that max bet by reducing the chance of the ace going to the dealer.
    This is something that every single sequencing team I've seen play does.
    If I can team up with somebody, I'll last a lot longer.

  8. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by G Man View Post
    What Snyder meant was: When tracking a specific Ace, using key cards for location and alone with the dealer. If you're not 100% (and you rarely are) sure of the position the Ace will land, keep it simple and play only one hand. By doing this, you will "split the Aces" with the dealer, giving you an overall edge of approximately 9% on each of these trials.

    52% when you get it.
    -34% when the dealer gets it.
    This gives 18% on two trials for a net of 9% per trial.
    This scenario is closer to slug tracking with Aces than it is to sequencing technique in its purest form. I said this at once.
    "Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    This scenario is closer to slug tracking with Aces than it is to sequencing technique in its purest form. I said this at once.
    I agree with you 100%. Thank you for your hard work.

  10. #75


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    Quote Originally Posted by aceside View Post
    I agree with you 100%.
    Thank god. We were all on the edge of our seats waiting for your validation on the subject.

  11. #76


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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Thank god. We were all on the edge of our seats waiting for your validation on the subject.
    lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gramazeka View Post
    This scenario is closer to slug tracking with Aces than it is to sequencing technique in its purest form. I said this at once.
    No it's not. It for Ace sequencing WHEN PLAYING ALONE WITH THE DEALER.

    Don't put words in Snyder's mouth. It is straight in the section about "steering the Aces" when doing sequential tracking of Aces.
    G Man

  13. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjarg View Post
    Thank god. We were all on the edge of our seats waiting for your validation on the subject.
    Yes, I agree with you 100%. I judge experts among experts. Just look at what Don S. says: “And while variance obviously increases with optimal bets on multiple simultaneous hands, so does e.v., by the same percentage, leaving risk of ruin the same.”

    This is faulty math, because this might be true for two or three hands, but definitely false for more hands.

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