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Thread: What is the most money you've lost to avoid heat?

  1. #14


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    Quote Originally Posted by gayandlovingit View Post
    What you're describing are all varying degrees of negative EV, whether it's a small negative EV (playing $10 instead of $5 during negative counts), or a large one (hit a 16 with max bet out against a dealer 5).

    What's the EV threshold that demarcates cover play from losing on purpose?
    Then according to you, when you sit at a table and get the first round dealt to you, since count is zero and it’s a negative play, anyone who does that is “losing on purpose”. That is bizarre. By your definition, those who wong in at positive counts are the only ones not deliberately losing.

    By my definition, deliberate losing is making the wrong play (deviation from correct strategy) with the intention to throw off heat. I dont split tens ever but it’s because I am selling for a bit less aeV, not making a play expecting to lose.

  2. #15


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    I second what 21forme said. No real AP in their right mind would ever lose on purpose. There’s enough losing that occurs naturally, so you would never need to lose on purpose. For straight counting, your edge is so thin, you absolutely cannot afford such nonsense.

  3. #16


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    Why don't people realize that absolute precision is very important to BJ success. Sloppy thought is very dangerous.

  4. #17


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    I’ve played the perfect pair side bet for $25 two times just because some pit critters were pushy about it, other than that a few exhaustion/pressure mistakes. Never deliberately played outside proper BS or indices deviations.

  5. #18


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    I must have been mistaken. I could have sworn I have heard AP Card Counters admitting they lost money on purpose in order to look lije a Ploppy and not an AP Card Counter.

  6. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blackjack Newbie View Post
    I must have been mistaken. I could have sworn I have heard AP Card Counters admitting they lost money on purpose in order to look lije a Ploppy and not an AP Card Counter.
    You are probably not mistaken. Some APs will not make some deviation index plays (like splitting 10s) due to the potential risk of being identified as a counter. So, in that sense, not making the deviation = losing EV = losing $ on purpose. But accepting less EV as cover is not the same thing as losing $ on purpose because it is done in the hopes of increasing longevity...which, of course, increases EV in the long run.

    You say tomato I say tomato...

  7. #20


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    There is only one hand that a person can "lose on purpose" and that is hitting a hard 21 (If you would even be allowed to hit it).
    All the way up to this point you have increasingly negative expectation hands with the worst being a double down on a hard 20

    So the only hand that you can "lose on purpose", will draw more heat than just about any other decision that you can make at the blackjack table.
    Last edited by BankerCA; 03-26-2020 at 12:15 AM.

  8. #21


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    Quote Originally Posted by Wave View Post
    You are probably not mistaken. Some APs will not make some deviation index plays (like splitting 10s) due to the potential risk of being identified as a counter. So, in that sense, not making the deviation = losing EV = losing $ on purpose. But accepting less EV as cover is not the same thing as losing $ on purpose because it is done in the hopes of increasing longevity...which, of course, increases EV in the long run.

    You say tomato I say tomato...
    Thank you for that explanation!

  9. #22


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    Quote Originally Posted by CEO1 View Post
    Why don't people realize that absolute precision is very important to BJ success. Sloppy thought is very dangerous.
    It really depends on how much success you want. Absolute precision requires work. Some just want to play even or slightly better, some want to play recreationally (and that means not putting in too much work) and some want BJ to pay all their bills. The latter might require a higher level count, great planning, travel, etc.

  10. #23


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    Quote Originally Posted by CEO1 View Post
    Why don't people realize that absolute precision is very important to BJ success.
    Not exactly (no pun intended). Index numbers are not precise. Bet ramps are not precise and it's probably higher EV to round the bet up or down to keep the chip stack monochrome to get better game speed.

    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Absolute precision requires work.
    This is classic. I'd put it in my sig line (with full credit, of course), but I suspect Norm would delete it

  11. #24


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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    It really depends on how much success you want. Absolute precision requires work. Some just want to play even or slightly better, some want to play recreationally (and that means not putting in too much work) and some want BJ to pay all their bills. The latter might require a higher level count, great planning, travel, etc.
    I think you just proved my point. Playing BJ correctly requires work....jeez....

  12. #25


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    Quote Originally Posted by CEO1 View Post
    I think you just proved my point. Playing BJ correctly requires work....jeez....
    That is NOT what you said. You said “Why don't people realize that absolute precision is very important to BJ success. Sloppy thought is very dangerous.”

    And I said that people do have success without absolute precision, just not as much. I have no idea what “sloppy thoughts” you are talking about. I do play what might be described as “sloppy” but it has not been dangerous, it just has not resulted in maximum earnings.

    If you don’t understand your own posts and cannot tell the difference between your statements, perhaps Don can explain better why your statements were not even close to the same.

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