Finding good conditions

[Three]

I am writing this because I came to realize that newer players might not understand what to look for. I usually come in above the sim's stated EV and there are reasons for it. I try to play quality of hours rather than quantity.

What you should be looking for is primarily game speed. This pretty much translates to playing uncrowded conditions. What does playing uncrowded conditions accomplish? Everyone seems to like to assume 100 rounds/hour as what you will get. But at a crowded table you are probably getting 50 to 60 rounds/hour. And heads-up or 1 other person that plays fast depends on how fast you can play and how fast the dealer deals. You can probably get 150 to 250 rounds/hour. So you are looking at each hour at these uncrowded conditions being worth the same as 3 to 5 hours played crowded assuming the EV is the same per round for both crowded and uncrowded conditions.

The reality of EV comparison between crowded and uncrowded conditions may surprise many on a per round basis (not hourly). That is there is very little difference between the 2 because although the other players eat high count rounds and good cards when they come out they also eat disadvantage rounds and bad cards when you want cards eaten. The crowded conditions may even have a slight edge on a per round EV basis.

What really happens which makes your life more difficult is crowding changes the ebb and flow of profits because you get so few advantage bets when that rare shoe comes along. This really decreases the certainty of results for the opportunity (increases the likelihood you will lose through the opportunity). So rather than measuring the number of advantage bets/opportunity by the dozens of advantage bets, the shoe player may only get around a half dozen. I don't need to tell you how that would effect the ebb and flow of profits. The nice thing about shoe games is you will get so many advantage bets in a row for each great opportunity.

What you want to do is scout when and where you are likely to get good conditions and if you are at a time when good conditions abound you shouldn't be as patient. The window of opportunity for having good conditions at most casinos or pits is often just a few hours at a time or less and you don't want to waste it. If you know you aren't likely to find good conditions you should be more patient at a table that has good conditions. Sims and Dons wonging research don't have a factor for what your scouting says you should expect to find in the way of conditions but it is the best tool you have for getting in the most quality hours (hours played at a very fast game). Remember it is more about game speed than crowding but the correlation between crowding and a slow game is very high.

Now sims don't actually have game speed as a factor. Most sims either just focus on rounds or doesn't make game condition assumptions in the way you find them in the casino where there are certain times of day that give better chances for finding favorable conditions. Sometimes it is the casino procedures that allow opportunities and the other factor is patron rhythms for when there will be more and few players in the casino. Everyone has to eat, sleep and most work. These daily rhythms cause an ebb and flow of players. Even the weather is a factor for the latter. If you scout to learn the rhythms of the stores you frequent from both a casino procedure point of view and parton usage point of view you will find the windows of opportunity for each casino to get the conditions you seek. If you are playing a casino cluster area or a casino with lots of tables some rhythms may be somewhat universal. At these times you should be the least tied to a table so you can maximize the rounds played at great counts for that window. In other words you shouldn't be wasting your time when your table crowds up if you know you have a high likelihood of getting a fast game at another table. Just leave when the count tanks and seek another fast game before the window of opportunity closes.

By focusing on quality time rather than quantity you can get in many times more rounds and with smarter wonging that considers what your scouting tells you that you can expect you can maximize the results from those windows that scouting identified. A lot more than the just the count should influence your decision to leave the table. Observing what is happening around you in the casino, longevity concerns and casino tolerances, conditions at the table you are playing, and the conditions that you expect to find from scouting the areas options. If you can make dynamic decisions about casino conditions that a sim can't make accurately you should be able to outperform the sim. The more info you gather the more accurate your assessment will be. I don't believe in wasting time when I know conditions will really suck. Why tire yourself playing for peanuts. My sim results say I should win around $125/100 rounds. Why wouldn't I spend my time making $250 to $325/hour trying to maximize the likelihood of a great shoe rather than sitting at a crowded table making $65/hour or worse? You want the least exposure possible in the casino. Getting in and winning what both you and the casino are comfortable with and getting out in the shortest time possible is what it is about. Everything you learn about counting, money management, casino tolerances, and what conditions your scouting says you can expect to find should define when you play and how you wong. If you are going to show your spread don't you want to get more bets down?

I hope some of the newer players got some benefit from this. Maybe some more seasoned players did too.

[Freightman]

Excellent post for what I read. To paraphrase - game speed and conditions.
Brevity is nectar of the Gods.

[Three]

Excellent post for what I read. To paraphrase - game speed and conditions.
Brevity is nectar of the Gods.

I am trying to help new players understand what they need to do. Brevity is not what is called for. A thorough explanation that makes them see the light is what is called for. I was worried it was too short to accomplish what I was trying to do for them.

[Freightman]

I am trying to help new players understand what they need to do. Brevity is not what is called for. A thorough explanation that makes them see the light is what is called for. I was worried it was too short to accomplish what I was trying to do for them.

It's called ATTENTION SPAN.

[seriousplayer]

I am writing this because I came to realize that newer players might not understand what to look for. I usually come in above the sim's stated EV and there are reasons for it. I try to play quality of hours rather than quantity.

What you should be looking for is primarily game speed. This pretty much translates to playing uncrowded conditions. What does playing uncrowded conditions accomplish? Everyone seems to like to assume 100 rounds/hour as what you will get. But at a crowded table you are probably getting 50 to 60 rounds/hour. And heads-up or 1 other person that plays fast depends on how fast you can play and how fast the dealer deals. You can probably get 150 to 250 rounds/hour. So you are looking at each hour at these uncrowded conditions being worth the same as 3 to 5 hours played crowded assuming the EV is the same per round for both crowded and uncrowded conditions.

The reality of EV comparison between crowded and uncrowded conditions may surprise many on a per round basis (not hourly). That is there is very little difference between the 2 because although the other players eat high count rounds and good cards when they come out they also eat disadvantage rounds and bad cards when you want cards eaten. The crowded conditions may even have a slight edge on a per round EV basis.

What really happens which makes your life more difficult is crowding changes the ebb and flow of profits because you get so few advantage bets when that rare shoe comes along. This really decreases the certainty of results for the opportunity (increases the likelihood you will lose through the opportunity). So rather than measuring the number of advantage bets/opportunity by the dozens of advantage bets, the shoe player may only get around a half dozen. I don't need to tell you how that would effect the ebb and flow of profits. The nice thing about shoe games is you will get so many advantage bets in a row for each great opportunity.

You didn't take into consideration of playing two hands in a crowded table. To counter playing fewer hands in crowd tables the AP can spread to two hands or three hands when the count is positive to get in more round per hour. Sometimes there is only one table open and if you want to play at that casino than you might need to spread to two hands when count turns positive. Since this post if for new players please give examples what you mean by quality of time.

[Three]

You didn't take into consideration of playing two hands in a crowded table. To counter playing fewer hands in crowd tables the AP can spread to two hands or three hands when the count is positive to get in more round per hour. Sometimes there is only one table open and if you want to play at that casino than you might need to spread to two hands when count turns positive. Since this post if for new players please give examples what you mean by quality of time.

Spreading to two hands can be a heat magnet. You should just always play 2 hands or wong out. Often newbies don'y have the BR for 2 hands.

[Xothan]

You didn't take into consideration of playing two hands in a crowded table. To counter playing fewer hands in crowd tables the AP can spread to two hands or three hands when the count is positive to get in more round per hour. Sometimes there is only one table open and if you want to play at that casino than you might need to spread to two hands when count turns positive. Since this post if for new players please give examples what you mean by quality of time.

Like Tthree, I have found that spreading to two hands is a heat magnet as well. The last few times I've done this, the dealer would tell the pit boss as he passes by "Two Hands Sometimes" and then the pit boss would stay around and watch me. Ugh. Now I just start with two hands if the table is crowded.

[Freightman]

If you want to be annoyed like in a casino turn Cassie on.

Yeah, but Cassie has such an annoying voice. I think Norm should give her a voice lift as well as some serious cleavage. That and some suggestive 1 liners should generate some sales.

[Three]

Not some of Sir Normcelots best work. But the hide and silent feature is a handy little gadget. Wish it worked on my LF sometimes. Can you imagine? We'd make millions. Lol

I use the ignore feature in my head but that can get you in trouble.

[Fireman]

Tthree's original post was right on the money. I will admit to being a fan of brevity and usually just scan his long posts, but this was a gem.
Although there are times when I look for crowded conditions, I usually prefer to play heads-up (or with one other player) when playing through shoes. Although playing heads-up will draw increased attention in many stores, this can be more than offset by the increased number of hands per hour and reduced playing time per session.

[LoveBJ]

Finding good conditions

When I first read this, I thought you were going to talk about game rules. For example, H17 vs S17 or DAS vs NDAS, etc. However, I did enjoy the read.

[Freightman]

Span or Spam?

Did you say SPAM
https://youtu.be/anwy2MPT5RE

[Freightman]

Tthree's original post was right on the money. I will admit to being a fan of brevity and usually just scan his long posts, but this was a gem.
Although there are times when I look for crowded conditions, I usually prefer to play heads-up (or with one other player) when playing through shoes. Although playing heads-up will draw increased attention in many stores, this can be more than offset by the increased number of hands per hour and reduced playing time per session.

What I read was good - guarantee the entire post could have been better with half the verbiage.