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Thread: More thoughts on simplicity. lol

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    More thoughts on simplicity. lol

    Ok, so I made this post on another site (wizard's) in a 'count discussion' and a couple people have told me it was my best post yet on the subject, that I made my points more clearly than usual, which I know is one of my weaknesses, so I have decided to re-post it here.

    I know the simplicity opponents will dissect and dispute everything, but what the hell....it's a rainy and cold (55 degrees) day here in Vegas, so it will provide some entertainment value.


    Really great posts by RS and Romes.

    Here's the thing with card counting. The 'math guys' always want to squeeze every last drop of advantage. I understand that is their nature (being math guys).

    But in the real world there is something called "diminishing returns" and it works like this: You capture the vast majority of advantage by doing X amount of work. Now by working much harder, which we will call XX or XXX amount of work, you increase your return by a very disproportionally small amount. Very 'diminishing' return for the extra work involved.

    In Card counting this concept applies to two areas. Level 2 and 3 counts (and side counts) as opposed to simpler level 1 counts like Hi-lo and also in the number of strategy change or index plays that one chooses to memorize and employ. In the index play part of the conversation, something like 60% of the available gain is achieved with only the top 3 index plays, Insurance, 16 vs 10 and 15 vs 10. Something like 80-85% of all available gain is achieved by playing the top 20 or so index or strategy change plays (Don Schlesinger's Illustrious 18). Playing more than 20 or so (I actually play about 30) just begins to net you very miniscule gains. I call it chasing pennies. :/

    But it is even worse than this because even a slightly higher error rate in either of these areas, will wipe out any small gain achieved on paper or in simulations. Proponents of higher counts and more index plays, usually refuse to acknowledge any such higher error rate, something that is scientifically proven when comparing simple tasks to tasks even slightly more complex. They just are refusing to accept the science, so they have these gains or improvements in results that show up on paper or in simulations that just aren't there in real world play.

    Furthermore there are some advanced techniques that you can apply that correlate much better to a simple count like high low than higher level counts. One of the things that I do is tracking multiple tables and jumping immediately from a negative or neutral situation to a much more favorable situation. This allows me to see and play FAR more positive and max bet count situations which translates to significant increase (even allowing for increased error rate). We aren't talking 5-10% (which isn't there in reality), we are talking 50-75%, or more.

    And this is just one example of such an advanced technique, there are others that I won't mention and almost all of these things work better with a simple type count. These techniques aren't available all the time, but when they present themselves they are actually worth the extra effort as opposed to the concept of higher level counts, which translates to pennies and only on paper (or simulations).

    My final two thoughts are these: If you are looking to improve results by working harder, choose something that is going to make a significant difference......Dollars, not pennies. And two, there is a reason most professional players solo as well as teams, including most of the 'famous' teams everyone knows about employs Hi-lo and not some higher level count that can squeeze out a few more pennies for much more work. I mean surely the MIT team had the ability to have played a level 2 or 3 count with side counts. It's just not worth the effort. Diminishing returns.


    Last edited by KJ; 11-04-2015 at 09:43 AM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I need to stop reading and expanding my vocabulary. It will cause me to make more grammatical errors.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    http://youtu.be/aB6UQXx98KU

    Zee will be delighted.

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    Good article KJ. I have to admit I've thought I'd spent the last 6 months trying to finds ways to improve BC and PE which is now rendered as virtually useless. Don't I feel like an idiot! But a truth pill and a closer looks says it's actually been two years. In short, I threw away something of value to me, that wasn't broke, and allowed myself to be unduly influenced by others. Repeat...DONT I FEEL LIKE AN IDIOT. Consequently, I've been playing with a severe handicap of having my "head stuck in my ass" ever since. No one to blame but me. REPEAT! I have 3 investment endeavors. Stocks/house. Sportsbets. Blackjack. The money is distributed at about 88%, 10%, 2%. Ironic, the overall time invested is just about reversed. REPEAT!

    Norm made a great point the other day and I think it was regarding you. That you BELIEVE! And you HAVE to BELIEVE. For me, the single deck game is a sprint. For the rest of the US the game is a long distance race. Anyone knows or will tell you to find the inside of the track in a distance race. Few want to run in the 2nd lane for very long...and you don't see any idiots out there running in lane 8. Whether you broke out early and run ahead of the pack or slid in behind other runners doesn't matter. The point is you, KJ, has hit his stride on the inside track. But you seem to run "your" race while looking into the stands or with concern to the other runners. This may be counter productive or not depending on the individual. Just make sure it isn't or doesn't become the former.

    I realize(d) I have enough to worry about with my own race. Getting 86ed, shuffled early, limited rules and indices are all counter measures I must overcome if I'm going to continue the sprint. My game is a 4 column approach that's been on the shelf. Who's gives a rip what anybody thinks? I've yet to see one of their quarters go in my circle in my behalf. Therefore, it's definately counter productive for me to give two sh**s about what another player is or is not doing.

    My best 4-legged friend was PRE name after the famous runner. He would stand, shake, and stare at me to let me know it was time for our daily ritual of his morning walk... he loved the evening walks as well. But he'd just sprint to the first bush and left his leg. Even though he was out of "juice" halfway through the walk he'd keep repeating the same process over and over...and over. It was "dog" heaven for him and his only concern seemed to be the next bush ahead. But, he was gracious, as he'd gently approach oncoming walkers as if to say hello, allow a friendly pat on his head, then he was right back to "his" biz of bush hunting.

    Everyonce in awhile a cat would be along our path. The cat would hiss at him, he'd stop,cock his head, sort look at him and then look at me as if to say "what's up with that cat?" OR a child would be screaming in the park. He stopped, stare, and look up at me like "can't you make him stop?" I'd say PRE don't look over their if it bothers you. He seemed to acknowledge me and was off to his next bush...still out of juice.

    KJ, you're doing just fine peeing on your own bushes. Don't look over their if it bothers you.
    Last edited by moses; 11-04-2015 at 10:44 AM.

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    While your post is well written and the ideas expressed clearly, you simply are blinded to the fact that some people have the intellectual capacity to do exactly the same things with a level-2 or level-3 count that you do with level 1. And, your failure to acknowledge this colors all of your argumentation.

    People tend to write about and support ideas and concepts that stem from their own experience. But, when you are advocating something that may apply to a much larger, disparate, group than what encompasses your own experience, generalizing your personal capabilities, or lack thereof, to the entire population is a mistake.

    After just a year of playing Hi-Lo, it became apparent to me that learning the Revere Point Count would be child's play for me. I have a facility with numbers, and this ace-reckoned level-2 count, which would increase Hi-Lo return, seemed easily attainable for me. It is now 40 years later. Do you think for one minute that I am failing to "acknowledge my scientifically proven error rate," which is, unavoidably, higher than your Hi-Lo error rate? Any time you'd like to go head-to-head in a skills contest with me, just name the place and time -- but you'll need to make it worth my while.

    The simple point is: you can't play Hi-Lo any more accurately than I play the RPC -- and that's with 150 indices, to boot! So now, we keep going. Someone else plays AOII or Hi-Opt II, level-2 counts, but with a side of aces, for example. And, they get so proficient at it that they are painstakingly accurate. You seem to think that this isn't possible, but that is a terribly naive and simplistic point of view. Of course it's possible! So, instead of advocating simplicity, anyone who discusses this topic should advocate crawling before you walk and then walking before you run. Should Hi-Opt II be the FIRST count you ever learn? No, I don't think so. Should you NEVER aspire to it, because you're inevitably "doomed" to a higher error rate if you dare to try? Again, that's just plain silly. Socrates's "Know thyself" comes to mind.

    Bottom line: anything worth doing is worth doing well. Experienced counters should aspire to the highest level count -- whatever the complexity -- and the number of strategy indices that they can master thoroughly. Anything less is cheating themselves. Anything more may very well be the "diminishing returns" that you allude to. But stop painting the entire blackjack-playing community with the same brush, and recognize that "There are more things in heaven and earth, KJ, than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

    Finally, people reading these lines, from none other than the creator of the Illustrious 18, may see a certain irony and even a contradictory aspect to the remarks but they shouldn't. The purpose of the I18 was NEVER to advocate that players learn just that much and no more. The purpose was simply to make players aware of the fact that, by learning just the 18 (and later Fab 4 and Catch 22), they could, especially in a shoe game, capture the lion's share (80%-85%, as you mention) of the attainable gain. It was then left to the individual to decide whether or not to leave the remaining dollars (not pennies!) quite literally on the table or not. I am not my brother's keeper!

    Don

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    Excellent post, Don. Didn't even look for spelling errors.

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    Great post, Don!

    KJ, I like your post too. The idea of simplicity makes a lot of sense and allows you to do cool stuff like play at one table and count down another, using low mirrored ceilings lol. Love it! It seems as if you're trying to prove something to the AP community, but I don't think you need to. I've followed your story through BJ21 and I think it's a pretty inspiring one at that. You've been able to build a substantial BR, while living off your AP earnings for the last 12/13 years. That's impressive!

    In regards to the count debate, it doesn't seem like there will ever be a "winner". From what I've witnessed over the countless count debates, this is almost no different than debating religion or politics. I understand both sides of the argument, but I think Don S sums it up the best.

    With all that said, why don't we put this whole count discussion behind us for good? I couldn't even get through the last couple threads. In the last one, I gave up around post # 70ish, and I believe it went as high as 130+. I'm sure there are much more productive topics that can be discussed. That's just my opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post

    Bottom line: anything worth doing is worth doing well. Experienced counters should aspire to the highest level count -- whatever the complexity -- and the number of strategy indices that they can master thoroughly. Anything less is cheating themselves.
    I appreciate your opposing view, but the thing that immediately comes to mind, is why have most of the professional player including most of the team situations, that are made up of people certainly able to handle more than hi-lo, not subscribed to your point of view. Most chose to play beneath their maximum ability because of the "diminishing returns" concept.

    I appreciate the idea that different players place different values on thing, like squeezing every last cent of advantage. I appreciate that my opinion is not shared by everyone and I have no problem with experienced players deciding something else is 'right' for them.

    My concerns are always about the newer players and members of this site that are not those experienced players being influenced into making that decision to run, when they have not only not learned to walk or even crawl, but can barely sit upright. We see this all the time on this site. It is crystal clear from comments.

    No offense, Don, you are a math guy. I think people think I say that as a derogatory term. I don't. But math guys are more fascinated and consumed with the math, and mathematically squeezing every last drop. There is more to successful card counting AP play in today's environment.

    Card counting blackjack advantage play isn't JUST about the math and maximizing returns. It's about being able to actually apply the concepts in real world play and about longevity. What good is any of it, if you can't actually apply it? There is a lot of 'side stuff' involved in that. You need to figure out what the tolerance levels are, what is acceptable to the casino, and particular shift. You need to keep an eye on pit and security for brewing trouble. Know where everyone is at all times. You need to keep an eye on the exits and have an escape plan and route and be altering that escape plan and route as you sit at the table based on changing circumstances.

    In my opinion, (and experiences) it's best to leave a little focus and room in your mind for these other important aspects.

    Last edited by KJ; 11-04-2015 at 11:42 AM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    There is a tendency of many people to pigeonhole others that are successful. The logic goes, if one is successful at A, he must not be able to understand B. I’ve seen this type of logic used throughout my life in numerous arenas and believe it to be harmful as it leads to incorrect conclusions. So, I’ll ignore the bulk of the post.

    On team play, it depends on the type of team. Many team methodologies involve expendable players. In these cases, a simple strategy is used to bring new players up to speed quickly. They are often dumped just as quickly. But, that is just one type of team. In other teams, more complex strategies are often used, and different players may use different strategies.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    The game or race to be won isn't here. It's at the tables. There is no ladder to be climbed here by stepping on someone else or trying to be superior. However, there is an extreme amount of vast knowledge. What you take and what use could serve to greatly enhance your advantage. OR not! Like in most aspects of life it's a matter of perception vs reality.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    I appreciate your opposing view, BULLSHIT
    but the thing that immediately comes to mind, is why have most of the professional player including most of the team situations, that are made up of people certainly able to handle more than hi-lo, not subscribed to your point of view. NARCISSTIC AND SELF SERVING COMMENT

    Most chose to play beneath their maximum ability because of the "diminishing returns" concept. MORE BULLSHIT - LIKE RUNNING A RACE AT LESS THAN FULL SPEED TO CONSERVE ENERGY

    I appreciate the idea that different players place different values on thing, like squeezing every last cent of advantage. NO! YOU DONT! I appreciate that my opinion is not shared by everyone DOUBT IT! YOUVE PRETTY MUCH SAID SO ABOUT 50 TIMES, and I have no problem with experienced players deciding something else is 'right' for them.

    My concerns are always about the newer players and members of this site that are not those experienced players being influenced into making that decision to run,AGAIN! FOR THE UMPTEENTH TIME! YOURE CONDEMnING OTHERS TO THE STONE AGE? when they have not only not learned to walk or even crawl, but can barely sit upright. WHY CANT U GIVE CREDIT FOR THE INTELLIGENCE OF INDIVIDUALS. We see this all the time on this site. It is crystal clear from comments.

    No offense, Don, you are a math guy. REALLY, HADNT NOTICED I think people think I say that as a derogatory term. I don't. But math guys are more fascinated and consumed with the math, TRY READING BJ 3 and mathematically squeezing every last drop. There is more to successful card counting AP play in today's environment. FINALLY! A COMMENT THAT MAKES SENSE?

    Card counting blackjack advantage play isn't JUST about the math and maximizing returns. It's about being able to actually apply the concepts in real world play and about longevity. What good is any of it, if you can't actually apply it? There is a lot of 'side stuff' involved in that. You need to figure out what the tolerance levels are, what is acceptable to the casino, and particular shift. YOU ARE APPLYING YOUR STANDARDS AS A ONE SIZE FITS ALL - LIKE RUBBERS You need to keep an eye on pit and security for brewing trouble ANY COMPETENT PLAYER WILL DO THAT Know where everyone is at all times. You need to keep an eye on the exits and have an escape plan and route and be altering that escape plan and route as you sit at the table based on changing circumstances.

    In my opinion, (and experiences) it's best to leave a little focus and room in your mind for these other important aspects. I DO! AND MOST COMPETENT PLAYERS DO?

    My comments above are, obviously, upper case.

    Your first 2 paragraphs suggesting a need for bit more controversy - for entertainment value - puts you into troll status. I'll bite.
    Btw, people are not as stupid as you seem to think they are.
    Last edited by Freightman; 11-04-2015 at 12:15 PM. Reason: Forgot to add - welcome back

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freightman View Post
    MORE BULLSHIT - LIKE RUNNING A RACE AT LESS THAN FULL SPEED TO CONSERVE ENERGY
    Freightman, you continue post with great hostility. Why are you incapable of engaging in respectful discussion?

    BTW, the correct and respectful method of quoting is to leave the quote intact for the purpose of integrity and then record your response.

    Marathons are absolutely run at less than full speed to conserve energy. Blackjack IS a marathon. I couldn't have made a better point myself. Thank you.

    Last edited by KJ; 11-04-2015 at 12:31 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Yes, I'd rather words like bullshit not be used. But, your comments to Don were also offensive. Do you also think Ted Forrester doesn't possess practical skills and knowledge because he's a "math guy"? I can name many people in the field.

    I, and others, have expressed many of the thoughts in your post. BUT, we do not suggest that they apply to all people or that discussion of more complex techniques is harmful. You must realize that people are different and that what is right for you may not be right for another.
    Last edited by Norm; 11-04-2015 at 12:42 PM.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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