longo: surrender after double/split aces

[longo]

basic strategy is clear, you should surrender a total of less than 17 against 8, 9, 10, A if you cannot hit again. The only interesting card is the 7. is there a bust propability of less than 25% at high counts? or is the count so high that it is not interesting? the normal bust propability of a 7 is about 26%, so it may be a closed decision at high counts, especially interesting if you want to avoid variance.

[AutomaticMonkey]

> basic strategy is clear, you should surrender a total
> of less than 17 against 8, 9, 10, A if you cannot hit
> again. The only interesting card is the 7. is there a
> bust propability of less than 25% at high counts? or
> is the count so high that it is not interesting? the
> normal bust propability of a 7 is about 26%, so it may
> be a closed decision at high counts, especially
> interesting if you want to avoid variance.

I think the count is so high that it's not interesting. A high count will both make it more likely the dealer has his hand and that he will bust if he doesn't have his hand, so the result is the sum of two curves with slopes of opposite sign. That never makes for a very exciting index play.

[Katarina Walker]

In Spanish 21, the bust rate for seven is virtually constant as the count increases. However, it does decrease very, very slightly as the count increases. It is almost 25% at TC 10 above neutral (TC = +6). So, yes, if you are playing with a high ROR, I would recommend forfeiting against a 7 at astronomically high counts to lower your variance.