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Thread: Aleatoric: Spanish 21 bet sizing

  1. #1
    Aleatoric
    Guest

    Aleatoric: Spanish 21 bet sizing

    Are all of the figures (advantages, covariances, and variances) in Appendix B of Kat Walker's Sp 21 book, based on what she described as the 'benchmark' pen of 81.25%? If so, I'd like to know what the advantages at each TC would be (or how to calculate them) for 75-77% pen, which are more commonly found in my area, in order to determine the correct bet sizes. Any help appreciated.

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Spanish 21 bet sizing

    > Are all of the figures (advantages, covariances, and
    > variances) in Appendix B of Kat Walker's Sp 21 book,
    > based on what she described as the 'benchmark' pen of
    > 81.25%? If so, I'd like to know what the advantages at
    > each TC would be (or how to calculate them) for 75-77%
    > pen, which are more commonly found in my area, in
    > order to determine the correct bet sizes. Any help
    > appreciated.

    The advantages will be almost identical, but the frequencies with which they occur will become smaller for the extreme counts and higher for the neutral counts, thereby lowering your SCORE.

    You can't "calculate" them; you have to simulate them.

    Don

  3. #3
    Aruuba
    Guest

    Aruuba: Re: Spanish 21 bet sizing

    > Are all of the figures (advantages, covariances, and
    > variances) in Appendix B of Kat Walker's Sp 21 book,
    > based on what she described as the 'benchmark' pen of
    > 81.25%?

    None of them are.

    They are all based on a blended penetration level of 75-90%.


  4. #4
    Aleatoric
    Guest

    Aleatoric: What would you recommend?

    > The advantages will be almost identical, but the
    > frequencies with which they occur will become smaller
    > for the extreme counts and higher for the neutral
    > counts, thereby lowering your SCORE.

    > You can't "calculate" them; you have to
    > simulate them.

    > Don

    Thanks for answering so quickly. I suppose what I'm asking is, does it make sense to use the 'blended pen' advantages simmed by Kat in Appendix B, which you say are nearly identical, in formulating correct bet sizes for a game (75% pen) which, as you say, would have a lower SCORE.

    I understand that Norm is not going to add a Spanish 21 option to CVCX, but Kat has mentioned making a SP 21 simulator available to the public. Any light you could shed on these matters would be much appreciated.

  5. #5
    Aleatoric
    Guest

    Aleatoric: Thanks

    > None of them are.

    > They are all based on a blended penetration level of
    > 75-90%.

    Sorry I didn't read your thread with Kat below more carefully before I posted.

  6. #6
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: What would you recommend?

    > Thanks for answering so quickly. I suppose what I'm
    > asking is, does it make sense to use the 'blended pen'
    > advantages simmed by Kat in Appendix B, which you say
    > are nearly identical, in formulating correct bet sizes
    > for a game (75% pen) which, as you say, would have a
    > lower SCORE.

    Be slightly more conservative than what the book what suggest.

    > I understand that Norm is not going to add a Spanish
    > 21 option to CVCX, but Kat has mentioned making a SP
    > 21 simulator available to the public. Any light you
    > could shed on these matters would be much appreciated.

    Kat's simulator is not "fancy," for the public. It would take a while for her to get it ready for commercial use, which, I don't think, is her first priority right now.

    Don

  7. #7
    Brick
    Guest

    Brick: Re: What would you recommend?

    Don,I usually bet more agressive in 3/2 BJ when pen is decreased to 75% because my sims are showing the high optimal bets are at earlier counts due to less frequency of ocurrences,would not the same hold true for sp21?

  8. #8
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Not what you're saying!

    > Don,I usually bet more aggressive in 3/2 BJ when pen is
    > decreased to 75% because my sims are showing the high
    > optimal bets are at earlier counts due to less
    > frequency of occurrences,would not the same hold true
    > for sp21?

    I'm sorry, but what you've written above just doesn't make any sense. For a FIXED bankroll, your edge is always greater, and, therefore, your optimal bets should be larger, the deeper the overall penetration (just look at the optimal be tsizes for any of the BJA3 Chapter 10 charts, as the penetration for the same game and rules gets progressively better).

    If penetration worsens, and you attempt to compensate for this by betting more aggressively, when optimal betting tells you to do just the opposite, then you are simply not betting optimally and, therefore, are taking on much more risk in an attempt to offset the parameters of the poorer game that you are playing.

    In general, the above is not a very good idea.

    Don

  9. #9
    Aleatoric
    Guest

    Aleatoric: Thanks, Don

    > Be slightly more conservative than what the book what
    > suggest.

    > Kat's simulator is not "fancy," for the
    > public. It would take a while for her to get it ready
    > for commercial use, which, I don't think, is her first
    > priority right now.

    > Don

    Appreciate your comments. Re Kat's simulator, I must have misread one of her posts.

  10. #10
    Brick
    Guest

    Brick: Re: Not what you're saying!

    What I mean to say is max bets usually go out at earlier tc's in poor games. If we use a fixed bankroll with optimal bet spreads the same applies,the only difference is the value of units. This is mainly due to less frequency of occurences in poor games. Is this correct?

    thanks

  11. #11
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Not what you're saying!

    > What I mean to say is max bets usually go out at
    > earlier tc's in poor games.

    That is true and is easily seen from the Chapter 10 charts.

    > If we use a fixed bankroll
    > with optimal bet spreads the same applies,the only
    > difference is the value of units.

    Right. Much less in the poorer games.

    > This is mainly due
    > to less frequency of occurrences in poor games. Is this
    > correct?

    Yes it is!

    Don

  12. #12
    Aruuba
    Guest

    Aruuba: Re: Thanks, Don

    > Re Kat's simulator, I must
    > have misread one of her posts.

    Well she does seem to say in the last paragraph of her Introduction in her book that the software she wrote, "The Spanish 21 Conquistador", a suite of programs, will be available from spanishcountess.com.

    Maybe that's what you read!

    Doesn't say when of course but perhaps patience will prevail.

    Just not sure to what extent Norm's software might be able to do the same kind of simulations. But I'm just guessing perhaps pretty darn close for the most part. Not quite sure if it sims, or maybe sims but without the bonus rules, or maybe you just can play SP21 with indices etc like in CVBJ. Maybe both if you get both products?!

  13. #13
    Aleatoric
    Guest

    Aleatoric: You're right

    > Well she does seem to say in the last paragraph of her
    > Introduction in her book that the software she wrote,
    > "The Spanish 21 Conquistador", a suite of
    > programs, will be available from spanishcountess.com.

    > Maybe that's what you read!

    > Doesn't say when of course but perhaps patience will
    > prevail.

    > Just not sure to what extent Norm's software might be
    > able to do the same kind of simulations. But I'm just
    > guessing perhaps pretty darn close for the most part.
    > Not quite sure if it sims, or maybe sims but without
    > the bonus rules, or maybe you just can play SP21 with
    > indices etc like in CVBJ. Maybe both if you get both
    > products?!

    Thanks for locating Kat's simulator quote. I knew I saw it somewhere. It does make it sound as though this would soon be available, but from Don's post, apparently this is not the case.

    Also, Kat seems to have mysteriously disappeared from the BJ boards after an initial willingness to answer questions on the book. But I understand that she is juggling a number of activities at the moment, so we should cut her some slack. It's just unfortunate that, unlike with BJ, she's probably the only person who can answer a number of questions on the game.

    Re Norm, it seems that SP 21 is functional for CVBJ and CVData but not CVCX, so, as far as I know, there is no commercial simulator for SP 21 bet ramps.

    Thanks again.

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