Katarina walker: Your Spanish 21 questions answered

[Katarina walker]

Thanks for the interest in my book.
I make the claim that Spanish 21 is more beatable and more vulnerable to counting than Blackjack. These are the reasons why:
1. The most player-advantageous card (Ace) occurs in a higher proportion (1/12 instead of 1/13)
2. Resplitting Aces and drawing on split Aces is permitted, making Aces even more player-advantageous.
3. Naturals (a k a Blackjacks) are always paid out at 3:2, even against a dealer natural, making Aces even more player-advantageous
4. In both games, we win more double downs at high counts. As we can double on any number of cards, we get even more benefit from high-count doubling.
5. In both games, stiff hands (a k a "bust hands") are the most common type of hand. In Blackjack multiple-deck basic strategy, we stand on all stiff hands versus 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, except for 12 versus 2 and 3. Hence, as the count increases, there is very little scope for play variation. In Spanish 21, there is much greater scope for play variation with the count. (For example: basic strategy for S17 is always hit 12 and 13, and hit 14 vs 2 and 3, but the optimal strategy at a TC of 10 above neutral is stand on all stiffs versus 2,3,4,5,6 except for 12 vs 2 and 3.)
As a result, indices have a much greater impact on win rate in Spanish 21 than Blackjack.
6. For each increase of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the average increase in the natural frequency is 17% higher than in Blackjack (due to the increased proportion of Aces)
7. For each increase of +1 in the Hi-Lo true count, the Spanish 21 advantage, using indices, increases by an average of 0.65%, which exceeds Blackjack (which I believe is around 0.5%).
8. Due to the lack of heat in some venues, it is possible to bet perfectly proportional to your advantage (and inversely proportion to your variance), thus optimising your win rate in a way that has not been possible in Blackjack for decades. As the count goes up, you keep increasing your bet. You don't have to cap your bet at a max bet. Any style of betting that does not increase your bet as your advantage increases will be suboptimal (e.g. capping out with a "big bet"), and will cost you money. For example, for 6-deck H17 Spanish 21 with 80% pen, if you cap your bet at 5 above neutral TC instead of increasing it as the count increases, you cut 30% off your win rate (it lowers your std dev as well, but only by 25%).
9. It is also possible to play a pure Wonging game without being asked to leave.
10. Penetration tends to be much better than Blackjack.

As a result, Spanish 21 games with low house edges (S17 and H17 with redoubling) will give the card counter a better return for a given bankroll than virtually all Blackjack games.

[SOTSOG]

Could you make a few comments on penetration? In a 6 deck shoe, when is pen bad, playable, or good in Spanish 21?

[MJ]

Katarina, what do you estimate the advantage to be for a counter playing Spanish 21 with good rules and penetration?
Rates for the play-all and wonging game would be nice.

MJ

[Katarina walker]

I personally play games in Australia where the pen varies between 87.5% and 90%. I used to play a 4 deck game in a certain Australian city where they cut off 0.5 deck.
But anyway, for Spanish21 it's the same as Blackjack: I wouldn't advise playing a game with less than 75% pen, unless you have no other choice.
This is what you should do: for the casino you go to, work out the SPanish 21 win rate (it tells you how to do this in my book) and the BJ win rate. Whichever is higher, that's the game you should play. I can pretty much guarantee that if the SP21 rules are S17 or H17 with redoubling (or the Meskwaki casino), you will make more money than BJ.

[Katarina walker]

Best possible North American rules (H17 with redoubling, 6 decks), 81.25%, optimal betting (i.e. betting in proportion to your advantage, and inversely prop to variance), wonging, all indices
: 2.5% advantage (SCORE = 59)
That is much bigger than Blackjack.
In some places you can get away with betting optimally, and wonging. In toehr places you can't. It depends on how long you play there for.
So soo the 2.5% as an upper bound.
For 1-12 spread, play-all, 81.25% pen, all indices, I only have a SCORE figure: 34. So I would estimate the advantage to be just under 1.5%. However, you would never "play all". At worst, you'd drop out at 2 or 3 below neutral TC. Plus you'd never cap out at 12 times your minimum bet in SP21.
So see 2.5% as an upper bound, and 1.5% as an extreme lower bound.

[SOTSOG]

I guess I will be altering my routine and cruising by the Spanish 21 table while waiting for a seat to open up in the poker room.

[MJ]