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Thread: young gun: what is my effective spread?

  1. #1
    young gun
    Guest

    young gun: what is my effective spread?

    Here is what I mean:

    I'm playing heads up 6D game, wonging out at -2. X is the true count.

    -2 1 2 3 4
    My actual spread is 8 to 1 since i'm betting a combined one unit when the TC<1, and 8 units when TC>4.

    However, i'm using 33% less cards for my +EV hands, so i'm getting in extra hands with positive counts. Clearly, this is an effective spread is greater than 8 to 1, but i'm not sure how much. This also has cover implications, since a seemingly weaker spread like this should divert heat, even though the spread is stronger than it looks.


  2. #2
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Semantics

    I've seen the term 'spread' used differently in the case of changing number of hands. I'm not sure it matters as long as one understands the question. What matters is how your betting is perceived by the house more than our formulaic exercises. I have not seen a definitive explanation of how casinos rate hand number changes on their paranoia index. And I'm not sure such a study is possible. Comes down to feeling out a particular casino.

  3. #3
    young gun
    Guest

    young gun: Re: Semantics

    I meant more how much bang for my buck am I getting with that 8 to 1 spread. It has to be more than 8 to 1 since i'm getting those extra hands in when the count is good.

    To rephrase, an 8 to 1 spread given that bet schedule (2 hands at negative counts and one hand when TC>1), is equivalent to what spread when playing one hand all the time (or two hands all the time, doesn't matter which way)?

  4. #4
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Not quite that simple

    1. Are you really getting more hands at a positive count? Yes but the problem is that you are sharing remaining cards with other players and the dealer. By increasing the number of hands played at good counts you reduce the number of rounds played at a positive count.

    2. The answer is highly dependent on the number of players at the table. Any time that you include Wonging or switching number of hands, the number of players at the table affects win rate. Include both and the effect is substantial.

    3. On top of this any time you involve Wonging, time to find a new table is a factor and this varies by casino, time of day and stakes. And changing the number of hands further affects this number.

    Not trying to be difficult - but questions like this have a very large number of variables.


    Blackjack Scams

  5. #5
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: He said he was playing alone

    The original post states heads-up play.

    I didn't answer, because I agree that the answer really doesn't matter very much. I'd guess it comes in at about 10 to 1, but, so what?

    Increasing spread by lowering the minimum bet isn't worth anywhere near what increasing spread by raising the top bet is. I could make an almost infinite spread by betting a tenth of a unit on the negative counts, but I won't win a whole lot more. On the other hand, if I achieve the same effective spread by making my top bet 40 units, that's a whole other story.

    See the problem, Young Gun?

    Don

  6. #6
    young gun
    Guest

    young gun: Re: Not quite that simple

    You bring up some good points. I guess a simpler question is just what is that spread equivalent to if playing-all is the strategy instead of wonging out. Obviously it's also less realistic, since who doesn't wong out of shoe games some of the time.


  7. #7
    young gun
    Guest

    young gun: Re: He said he was playing alone

    > The original post states heads-up play.

    Yea, I wouldn't even think of doing it when not HU. With 2 or more players, I could get more money out with the same risk playing 2 hands, as BJ Attack points out.

    > Increasing spread by lowering the minimum bet isn't
    > worth anywhere near what increasing spread by raising
    > the top bet is. I could make an almost infinite spread
    > by betting a tenth of a unit on the negative counts,
    > but I won't win a whole lot more. On the other hand,
    > if I achieve the same effective spread by making my
    > top bet 40 units, that's a whole other story.

    I was just hoping it's a way to get a 10 to 1 spread while really spreading 8 to 1, thus tricking the PB's into thinking i'm only spreading 8 to 1. Would it increase my longevity anywhere? Probably not by much.

  8. #8
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: He said he was playing alone

    Missed that. Another problem is that I think it varies by casino how much splitting to two hands affects their view of your 'spread.' Obviously jumping bets is a strong clue that you are counting. But changing number of hands is impossible to miss. I've always worried that this is more noticeable.

  9. #9
    young gun
    Guest

    young gun: cover

    > Missed that. Another problem is that I think it varies
    > by casino how much splitting to two hands affects
    > their view of your 'spread.' Obviously jumping bets is
    > a strong clue that you are counting. But changing
    > number of hands is impossible to miss. I've always
    > worried that this is more noticeable.

    Agree. Andersen says he will sometimes switch to two hands very early in the shoe, then go back to one until the count is high. This way, he's seen as a player who switches to two hands on a whim, not only when the count is huge.

  10. #10
    Wolverine
    Guest

    Wolverine: I agree

    My opinion is that if you are playing in the same casino frequently, you need to lay the ground work that you are a player that plays 1 or 2 hands so they get used to you doing it. Norm is right though: jumping to two hands ONLY when the count is high without laying the ground work is a GREAT way to get noticed in a casino (for all the wrong reasons)!

  11. #11
    Dog Hand
    Guest

    Dog Hand: Some Numbers

    young gun,

    I ran a 400-million-round sim of a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game with 5/6 pen for three players. Players 1 & 2 both use Complete HiLo, both start the shoe at the shuffle, and both leave if the TC falls to -2 or less. Player 3 simply flat-bets $100, plays all, and uses B.S. (he's here simply to use up the cards after 1 & 2 leave).

    Player 1 bets 1 hand of 1 unit (unit=$100) at +1 or less, 2 hands of 2 at +2, 2 hands of 3 at +3, and 2 hands of 4 at +4 and up; thus, Player 1 is supposed to represent you. However, I couldn't decipher your actual betting strategy from your post, so if I got it wrong, let me know and I'll rerun the sim.

    Player 2 plays one hand only, betting 1 unit (unit=$100) at +1 or less, 2 at +2, 4 at +3, 7 at +4, and 10 at +5 and higher.

    Below is the Summary Table for the sim. As you can see, Player 1 gets the higher win rate and SCORE, Player 2 gets the higher IBA (but also the higher Standard Deviation), and Player 3 gets full RFB ;-)

    Without a doubt we could probably tweak Player 2's bet schedule in an attempt to improve his SCORE, but I doubt we can exceed that achieved by Player 1.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    Effective Spread

    Sunday, December 09, 2007, 12:33 PM

    [/b]




    [/b]Summary

    Here a summary by seat or player is displayed. Hands skipped indicates hands not played due to "Wonging." Action is Total $ bet per hour and Win Rate is $ won per hour. IBA is advantage related to the Initial Bet (before double downs.) Std. Devs. are always by player and DI is Desirability Index as defined by BJ Attack.

    Hands$/HourUnits
    W/L
    Advan.Std DevPerformance
    SeatPlayedSkip%ActionWinRateUnits
    W/L
    TBA%IBA%SEHandHour100ShoeDISCOREN0Factor
    1270,343,1341.8029e854.9%$12,468$144.845,793,6711.1621.350.0172.8421.0628.4111.55.1025.9938,4771.040
    2223,382,8281.8289e854.3%$11,603$143.845,753,6541.2401.452.0223.3524.6933.5113.54.2918.4254,287.737
    3411,296,060$11,348($68.44)-2,737,581-0.603-0.684.0061.1411.3811.386.2-6.01-36.14--1.446
    4
    5
    6
    7

    Strategies

    SeatPlaying StrategyBetting Strategy
    1Complete High-Low 1x1-2x4
    2Complete High-Low 1-10 Spread
    3Complete Basic Strategy Flat Bet
    4
    5
    6
    7

    Totals

    Rounds: 400,000,000
    Hands: 905,022,022
    Shoes: 13,343,265
    Hours: 4,000,000

  12. #12
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Some Numbers

    Again, it was very kind of you to do this, but, as I mentioned to Norm, the premise, as stated by young gun, is that he is playing alone

    Don


  13. #13
    young gun
    Guest

    young gun: Re: Some Numbers

    > young gun,

    > I ran a 400-million-round sim of a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS
    > game with 5/6 pen for three players. Players 1 & 2
    > both use Complete HiLo, both start the shoe at the
    > shuffle, and both leave if the TC falls to -2 or less.

    As Don pointed out, I would only use the strategy I describe below when playing heads up.

    > However, I couldn't decipher your
    > actual betting strategy from your post, so if I got it
    > wrong, let me know and I'll rerun the sim.

    For some reason, the bet schedule didn't come out the way I thought I wrote it. I don't know why this was but I can see why it wasn't clear.

    I meant for it to be: The only player plays 2 hands of 1/2 unit each below +1, 1 hand of 2 units below +2, 3 units below +3, 4 units below +4, and 6 units above +4.

    The point of my question/statement was that by changing from 2 hands when at a disadvantage to 1 hand when at an advantage (TC>+1), your spread is greater than what you are actually spreading since you're eating cards at negative counts and doing the opposite at positive counts. In the betting I used above, the casino will see a spread of 6 to 1, but you're edge is certainly greater than it would be for a typical 6 to 1 spread, all else equal. It also runs counterintuitive to what casinos expect. They expect a player who is switching to two hands to do so when

    1. he is betting big
    2. the count is positive (same as one if he's counting)

    Here you are doing the opposite of that, which is why I like it for cover.

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