privador: Monster variations in breakeven game?

[privador]

I have played BJ with CSM,where casino edge is 0.27%
I have played over year and over 100k hand.And i have won about 500 bet
Altough i play -EV game,is possible what break even game causes monster variations?(Million+ hands)

[Don Schlesinger]

> I have played BJ with CSM,where casino edge is 0.27%
> I have played over year and over 100k hand. And I have
> won about 500 bets.

> Although I play -EV game, is it possible that break even
> game causes monster variations?(Million+ hands)

The short answer to your question is yes.

Suppose you flat-bet 100,000 hands with a -0.27% e.v. Your expectation is to lose 270 units. The s.d of a BJ hand (depending on rules) is about 1.14 units, so the s.d. for 100,000 hands is sqrt(100,000) * 1.14 = 360 units.

If you are ahead 500 units, instead of losing 270 units, you have a positive deviation of 770/360 = 2.14 s.ds. While this is an unlikely event, it certainly isn't impossible. It happens with probability = 1.6%, or, roughly, once in 63 chances. You're the lucky 1 in 63! :-)

Don