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Thread: David Spence: For Don or Norm: Optimal Betting for Short Term Gain

  1. #1
    David Spence
    Guest

    David Spence: For Don or Norm: Optimal Betting for Short Term Gain

    I'm about to play in a blackjack tournament whose structure does not lend itself well to most of the usual tournament betting strategies. Specifically:

    4 rounds, 5 to 7 players per table, 120 players total, no eliminations, no secret bets, no surrender.

    Points are awarded at the end of each round as follows:
    1st place on your table = 7 points
    2nd = 6
    3rd = 5
    etc.
    7th = 1

    At the end of the four rounds, the players with the six highest point totals advance to the final round.

    Neither Wong's nor Smith's book seems to cover this structure. The essence of this structure is that, prior to the final round, there is no real premium on getting first place. Though first is obviously better than second, the difference between these places is no greater than the difference between any other two adjacent places. Another way to think about it: every point counts, so you don't necessarily want to risk losing 2 points to have a chance at gaining 1 point.

    So, at long last, here is my question: what is the best betting scheme to simply maximize your expected bankroll at the end of 28 rounds, without regard to the other players? Here are the rules:

    1D, H17, 75%pen, NDAS, RSA, 2:1 on BJ, starting bankroll=$500, bets from $5 to $200.

    Even without card counting, these rules provide roughly a 2% edge (before readers get too excited, the tournament is played with non-value chips).

    David

  2. #2
    David Spence
    Guest

    David Spence: Re: For Don or Norm: Optimal Betting for Short Term Gain

    > So, at long last, here is my question: what is the
    > best betting scheme to simply maximize your expected
    > bankroll at the end of 28 rounds, without regard to
    > the other players?

    One clarification since "rounds" is used in more than once sense: each of the four rounds of the tournament consists of 28 rounds (that is, 28 hands dealt to all the players at every table) of blackjack. So my question is how to maximize the expected bankroll at the end of 28 hands.

  3. #3
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: For Don or Norm: Optimal Betting for Short Term Gain

    > One clarification since "rounds" is used in
    > more than once sense: each of the four rounds of the
    > tournament consists of 28 rounds (that is, 28 hands
    > dealt to all the players at every table) of blackjack.
    > So my question is how to maximize the expected
    > bankroll at the end of 28 hands.

    My knowledge of tournaments may be limited, but I believe in this case you actually want to optimise your rank among the seven players at your table, not your expected bankroll. This is not the same thing. For example, if the first ranked player finishes with $1000 while the third ranked player has $500, you will do just as well with $510 as with $990.

    Hope this helps in some way. :-)

  4. #4
    David Spence
    Guest

    David Spence: Re: For Don or Norm: Optimal Betting for Short Term Gain

    > My knowledge of tournaments may be limited, but I
    > believe in this case you actually want to optimise
    > your rank among the seven players at your table, not
    > your expected bankroll. This is not the same thing.
    > For example, if the first ranked player finishes with
    > $1000 while the third ranked player has $500, you will
    > do just as well with $510 as with $990.

    > Hope this helps in some way. :-)

    Thanks for the response--I really appreciate it.

    I realize that tournament play, especially in the later rounds, is quite different from normal play, and I know the betting strategies for common tournament formats. However, with this particular format, it would be useful to know an optimal betting scheme irrespective of the other players. This would be employed on early and middle (possibly up to the second-to-last) hands.

    So, the question remains: what betting scheme maximizes the expected bankroll after 28 hands with 1D, H17, 75%pen (or, more accurately, a shuffle after every two rounds of 5-7 players each), NDAS, RSA, 2:1 on BJ, starting bankroll=$500, bets from $5 to $200?

    David

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