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Thread: chgobjpro: Max bet question

  1. #1
    chgobjpro
    Guest

    chgobjpro: Max bet question

    My fellow playing AP's don't talk units but max bets won or lost. I play mostly 6 D shoes. When I play head on I play one hand and when 2 or more players are at the table when deck count turns to my adv I play 2 hands. My max bet head on is 500 and in the 2 hand situations 375 - 375. Do I figure my max bet is 500 or 750?

  2. #2
    Fred Renzey
    Guest

    Fred Renzey: Re: Max bet question

    > So do I figure my max bet is 500 or 750?

    >snip -- I think you should regard your max bet as 500. While 2 x 375 has a higher EV than 1 x 500 (but still lower than 1 x 750 due to the extra cards it uses), it has essentially the same volatility as 1 x 500.

  3. #3
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Max bet question

    > My fellow playing AP's don't talk units but max bets
    > won or lost. [...] Do I figure my max bet is 500 or
    > 750?

    For what purpose? I think for talking about a session result in terms of max bets won/lost 750 would make more sense, since if you placed your max and won/lost (both hands) you would be up/down 750. Your average number of max bets won/lost would then be comparable with your fellow players, although your results would be less volatile.

  4. #4
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Yes, I agree *NM*


  5. #5
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Max bet question

    "I think you should regard your max bet as 500. While 2 x 375 has a higher EV than 1 x 500 (but still lower than 1 x 750 due to the extra cards it uses), it has essentially the same volatility as 1 x 500."

    No, Fred, that isn't true. The 2 x $350 wager has higher volatility (standard deviation), and therefore higher variance than 1 x $500. The increase in variance is the same, percentagewise, as the increase in e.v., leaving the risk of ruin "essentially the same" as for one hand of $500. But ROR isn't synonymous with "volatility" or "standard deviation."

    Bottom line: The s.d. of the two bets is about 24% higher than the s.d. of the single bet.

    Don

  6. #6
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Correction

    I was assuming that the optimal bet equivalent for two hands was being made, but, for $500, that should be about 2 x $365, so I used $375. If we use the $350 in the example, s.d. increases by only 16%, not 24%.

    Don

  7. #7
    Fred Renzey
    Guest

    Fred Renzey: Re: Max bet question

    > No, Fred, the 2 x $350 wager has
    > higher volatility (standard deviation), and therefore
    > higher variance than 1 x $500. The increase in
    > variance is the same, percentagewise, as the increase
    > in e.v., leaving the risk of ruin "essentially
    > the same" as for one hand of $500. But ROR isn't
    > synonymous with "volatility" or
    > "standard deviation."

    > snip> Thanks Don, as always for the clarification. You almost always make things clearer for me.

  8. #8
    Fred Renzey
    Guest

    Fred Renzey: Re: Max bet question

    > I think for talking about a session
    > result in terms of max bets won/lost, 750 would make
    > more sense, since if you placed your max and won/lost
    > (both hands) you would be up/down 750.

    >snip> I don't know. What if Chgobjpro1 should occasionally go to 3 x 285 (such as at the end of a positive shoe)? Should he be referring to his max bet as 855?

    Actually, my own max bet is most often placed all on one hand due to opportunity and image constraints.

    I just thought for talking purposes, and to exchange results info among fellow AP's, it would be more concise refer to your single hand max as your "max bet", then multiply your progress by that number.

  9. #9
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Max bet question

    > I don't know. What if Chgobjpro1 should occasionally go to
    > 3 x 285 (such as at the end of a positive shoe)? Should he
    > be referring to his max bet as 855?

    If the max bet varied like that I would suggest taking a weighted average of the different total amounts according to their frequency.

    > I just thought for talking purposes, and to exchange
    > results info among fellow AP's, it would be more
    > concise refer to your single hand max as your
    > "max bet", then multiply your progress by
    > that number.

    I was trying to suggest a method that would allow a fair comparison.

  10. #10
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: Max bet question

    > If the max bet varied like that I would suggest taking a
    > weighted average of the different total amounts
    > according to their frequency.

    Are you kidding me!? How much time do you guys have to keep these kind of copious notes?

    Lets' see now, date, time, shift, game played, rules, pen, shuffle, pit boss, buy-in, bet spread, amount won/lost, tips extracted, clothes worn, accessories used, dealer excintricites, and the weighted average of my max bet according to their frequency of occurance .. extended to three decimals.

    (for sure don't ever spread to three hands. that will no doubt necessitate recasting your entire spreadsheet.)


  11. #11
    chgobjpro
    Guest

    chgobjpro: Re: Max bet question

    This is getting very technical for me. Fred and I just compare results by talking max bet. At my main playing venue they allow me to do anything I want, 3 hands, split 10's etc. WITHOUT HEAT. No half shoe or anything. THEY STILL BELIEVE I'VE WON A 25 MILLION LOTTO and are, I think, hoping eventually I'll kick up my play. For an occasional $1 on top of my 1st bet most of the dealers will cut where I indicate I want them to; usually 4.75 to 5.0 out of 6D. I've learned to rat-hole, without any notice, about 200 an hour and they still have me listed as a loser.

  12. #12
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Max bet question

    > Are you kidding me!? How much time do you guys have to
    > keep these kind of copious notes?

    I would suggest obtaining these frequencies by simulation, not from your notes.

  13. #13
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Max bet question

    > This is getting very technical for me. Fred and I just
    > compare results by talking max bet.

    The trouble is, this isn't a great way of comparing when your betting styles differ. However you do it, you'll either appear to have a higher advantage or lower variance than you actually do.

    I think the best way to compare session results (either from one session to the next, or between different players) would be to use the z-score. If you play for n hours and win x, your z-score is:
        (x - n*EV) / sqrt(n)*SD
    where EV and SD are your hourly expected value and standard deviation (you know those, right?). Your session results should be normally distributed, so you can use a lookup table or a scientific calculator to convert the z-score to a percentile if you wish. This will tell you how good or bad that session was.

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