Hard 8 :: ::: Kelly bet ramps

[Hard 8 :: ::]

Several hypothetical questions:

Assume a $10k bank; Further assume a game that is double deck, H17, Penetration 0.5 (half deck remaining at shuffle), Double after split, no re-split aces, no late surrender, $10 minimum bet;

1. What does a full Kelly bet ramp look like?

2. Same question for 1/2 Kelly and 1/4 Kelly.

3. Are these even the right questions?

Thanks,

:: ::

[David Spence]

Assuming Hi-Lo and a 1-8 spread, here are the Kelly betting ramps for H17, DAS, NRSA, 2D, 75% pen, 2 players at the table, and an unchanging $10K bank. All ramps were creating using CVCX:

full Kelly
<=1: $25
2: $50
3: $100
4: $150
5: $175
>=6+: $200

1/2 Kelly
<=1: $15
2: $30
3: $60
4: $90
5: $105
>=6+: $120

1/4 Kelly (I ignored your $10 minimum bet rule...you could double all the bets if you have to, which is better than increasing only the $5 bet at low counts)
<=1: $5
2: $10
3: $20
4: $30
5: $35
>=6+: $40

[Hard 8 :: ::]

Wow. That easy, huh? Maybe I oughta git me one a' them CVCX thingers :-)

Thanks to your response, a lot of concepts that have been somewhat foggy all these years have come together in sharp focus. I've read a lot of books and articles over the years, and watched a couple of these blackjack websites now-and again, but the principal, hardcore principles that drive this endeavour have been somewhat hard to glean from the mass of information provided. Thus, I have been battling this game by noting peoples' many recommended bet ramps for various conditions, but without really knowing how they all tied together. The glimpses I got of actual bet ramps seemed like little snapshots of the big picture, but none really tied the big picture together.

I had bet ramps (or more commonly, fragments of bet ramps)in my files from Bootlegger, SOTSOG, jd, TG, l'Machine, E-Kid, Telescopic, Mayor, and a number of others over the years, but they were all from different games and different rules. Some were stated to be more "aggressive", and some I deduced from previous posts by some of these individuals to be more conservative, but quantifying this scale was beyond me. So I would fudge some compromise bet ramps, and put them into easily bet quantities, and fire away.

Recently my wife, who does all our investing, had checked William Poundstone's 2005 book, "Fortune's Formula" out of the library, and she suggested I look at it, so I did. Good book. After finishing it, I thought to myself, "Holy sh__! I wonder if I have been betting full Kelly all these years?" The timing of this surmise was serendipitous, because I have been on a great, mother-lode, monster winning streak lately. I did three things in response: 1. Scared myself. 2. Boosted my bet levels. 3. Waited for the crash.

Well, I haven't been betting full Kelly, thanks in large part to Boot, who counseled caution in the face of the Beast of Variance more than once. What a relief.

So, thanks David for your quick response. I appreciate your adding in the assumptions of using Hi-Lo and two players at the table, those fit my hypothetical scenaio well. Also, your ignoring the $10 min rule for the 1/4 Kelly scenario was very clever.

And thanks to whoever developed CVCX, that looks like a helluva tool.

:: ::

> Assuming Hi-Lo and a 1-8 spread, here are the Kelly
> betting ramps for H17, DAS, NRSA, 2D, 75% pen, 2
> players at the table, and an unchanging $10K bank. All
> ramps were creating using CVCX:

> full Kelly
> 2: $50
> 3: $100
> 4: $150
> 5: $175

> 1/2 Kelly
> 2: $30
> 3: $60
> 4: $90
> 5: $105

> 1/4 Kelly (I ignored your $10 minimum bet rule...you
> could double all the bets if you have to, which is
> better than increasing only the $5 bet at low counts)
> 2: $10
> 3: $20
> 4: $30
> 5: $35

[Parker]

> And thanks to whoever developed CVCX, that looks like
> a helluva tool.

That would, of course, be Norm Wattenberger, software developer extraordinaire and frequent contributor to this forum. His other products include the CVData simulator and Casino Verite practice software. Link to his website below.

Serious Blackjack Software

[Sun Runner]

>> And thanks to whoever developed CVCX, that looks like a helluva tool.

> "You gotta be kidding"

That was pretty funny.

Most times I'm the one feeling like Rip Van Winkle but how Hard 8 :: :: missed knowing abut CVCX is kind of astonishing.

[Hard 8 :: ::]

genius. Very clever indeed.

Next you're going to tell me he's married to Britany Hilton and was seen whispering sweet nothings in Condi RIce's ear at the Golden Bulging Globes award red carpet.

:: ::

> That would, of course, be Norm Wattenberger, software
> developer extraordinaire and frequent contributor to
> this forum. His other products include the CVData
> simulator and Casino Verite practice software. Link to
> his website below.