From Don
---if you were sitting at first base and the 6
> cards that ended the last hand were non-face, assuming
> that the count was at or near zero,
How would you know??
My response
As an example, (I said that it was an 8 deck game so obviously it will be dealt all cards up), the last 4 cards dealt to the players were non face cards and after turning his down card over, the next two cards dealt to the dealer were non face cards also.
Remembering that I said that the count was near zero, if a simulation could prove that ones chance of getting a face card were sufficiently higher than 4/13, then a 14% advantage might make an increased bet in this situation worhtwhile.
From Don
Is this a shoe game?? If all the cards are dealt face up, so that you can see 12 cards, before making your insurance decision, why would you base your decision on just the first six cards dealt before the dealer's down card? What's wrong with the other six, dealt AFTER he took his down card? Don't you think that knowing what they are is just as "valuable"? If not, please reread BJA3, pp. 51-52 very carefully, before you respond.
My response
As an example: I'm sitting at an eight deck shoe. At the Blue Heron Casino in Ontario, the dealer turns his first card up and it is an Ace. The last 6 cards that he deals to the players are all non-face and then he gives himself a down card.
Assuming that the count is at or near zero, if all of the 12 cards that you mention, (14 if there are 7 players) were all non face, don't you think that the odds that the down card would be a face card would be higher than 4/13? I'm asking if the odds are higher after 6 non face cards which would happen much more often.
> How would you know??
> My response
> As an example, (I said that it was an 8 deck game so
> obviously it will be dealt all cards up), the last 4
> cards dealt to the players were non face cards and
> after turning his down card over, the next two cards
> dealt to the dealer were non face cards also.
My "How would you know?" did not refer to how you would know that six non-tens came out in a row; I assume you aren't blind! :-) It referred to knowing that the count was zero, rather than assuming that it was zero. BIG difference!
> Remembering that I said that the count was near zero,
Again, what you said was that you would ASSUME that it was zero. In fact, you don't "know" at all, because you aren't counting.
> if a simulation could prove that one's chance of
> getting a face card were sufficiently higher than
> 4/13,
I explained to you that, for the shoe game, it isn't "sufficiently" higher at all. You're not reading what I'm writing.
> then a 14% advantage might make an increased bet
> in this situation worthwhile.
Again, did you read what I wrote? Do you understand the difference between a 14% edge when you are CERTAIN that the next card is a ten, as opposed to having an ever-so-slight increase in the normal 96/312 probability that it's a ten?
Don
> My response
> As an example: I'm sitting at an eight deck shoe. At
> the Blue Heron Casino in Ontario, the dealer turns his
> first card up and it is an Ace. The last 6 cards that
> he deals to the players are all non-face and then he
> gives himself a down card.
Did you read anything I wrote below? Do you not care what I wrote, not understand what I wrote, or think that what I wrote was wrong?
Did you read the BJA3 passage or not??
> Assuming that the count is at or near zero, if all of
> the 12 cards that you mention, (14 if there are 7
> players) were all non face, don't you think that the
> odds that the down card would be a face card would be
> higher than 4/13?
I already answerd you, and I said yes. Did you miss the math that I did for you?
> I'm asking if the odds are higher
> after 6 non face cards, which would happen much more
> often.
And I answered you: of COURSE they're higher; you just removed six non-tens from the deck. Remove 12, and they'll be even better. Just WHAT are you driving at, Stephen?
You want to raise your bet every time six small cards in a row come out? I explained that the increase in your edge isn't sufficient enough to "go crazy."
Don
Posting Permissions
-*-
Bookmarks