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Thread: Norm Wattenberger: The good, the bad and the ugly ? some shuffle pics

  1. #1
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: The good, the bad and the ugly ? some shuffle pics

    Thought I?d post some simple shuffles to show some of the effects of dealer sloppiness in shuffling. First, three shuffle maps. The shuffle is a very simple one pass, riffle & restack with four grabs. First we show the mapping of the cards given a robot dealer. That is perfect grabs and riffles. The left stack of cards is pre-shuffle and the right post-shuffle. I have painted the cards in four colors:



    It?s easy to see how the very basic concepts of shuffle tracking work in the above example. If you have knowledge of the count in a zone before the shuffle, you have knowledge of a zone after the shuffle. However, dealers are not robots. There is much variation in grabs, splits, riffles, etc. Below is the same shuffle with a human dealer.



    Clearly the information is less perfect. And clearly it is still of value. Now let?s look at a dealer on drugs:



    With such a simple shuffle, there is still plenty of information available after the shuffle. Let?s look at all three:



    We can see that the tracked cards are more spread out the sloppier the dealer. But still not scattered randomly. We can get a better view by isolating one section of cards:



    Now this is a simple shuffle. Let?s try a much more complex shuffle:



    Real mess huh? Yes, but that doesn?t make it un-trackable. You must narrow the zones considerably. And you can see where some groups of cards are not spread too wildly. This is easier to see with colors isolated.

    Why have I posted these? Well, a post on BJFO this week claims that CVShuffle cannot create these maps. That it only creates maps of robot dealers. Clearly this is incorrect. (One of dozens of false claims about software on that site.) Also because they?re pretty. But I also wanted to point out two other misleading posts in the same thread. One claims that only single-rifles can be tracked. In fact, a quadruple riffle would make little difference in these maps. The other post suggests that the gain in tracking is so large that risk can be ignored and there is no need for simulation. This is a very dangerous belief. In the case of the first, very simple shuffle, there is a very large gain in SCORE from tracking. However, you are not going to find this shuffle with good rules. So, you are doubling a lousy SCORE. That does not give you a high enough SCORE to ignore risk. (Is there a high enough SCORE to ignore risk?) In the case of the complex shuffle; yes you can find it with good rules. But, you will not be able to realize a gain on every shuffle and your overall gain in SCORE is again too low to not understand your risk. Unless you have an infinite bankroll, it never makes sense to ignore risk.

  2. #2
    rainer
    Guest

    rainer: Re: The good, the bad and the ugly ? some shuffle pics

    Thanks Norm for your High Level blackjack lessons,
    that's what I like.
    But on the other side the casinos would become paranoia,
    when they see theese topics.
    rainer

  3. #3
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Re: The good, the bad and the ugly ? some shuffle pics

    Rainer I understand what you are saying ? but I want to look at a larger context.

    First, the large casinos understand shuffle-tracking in vastly more detail than the average player. Come on, does anyone actually believe that these multi-billion dollar corps are completely ignorant of the effects of shuffling? Do you believe Harrah?s does not understand how to shuffle cards?

    Think about it; when people on these forums say they won?t talk about AP methods; they are hiding info from whom? They are not hiding info from casinos. Guess what ? the casinos know it. They are hiding info from other players because they want to keep the number of APs small. They do not want you as competitors. And we have people that claim to write books on ST that they know are missing major concepts ? and they hide and disclaim valid tools to players.

    E-mail me and we?ll discuss. But, I?m tired of posts on other sites that ?we know how to win and you?re stupid.? And I?m tired of the threats against others that wish to post their knowledge. And I?m tired of the people that pretend to post the ?truth? when they really want to keep it for themselves.

    I?m willing to listen to other opinions. But, at this point, I think we should just start telling the truth.
    Opinions?

  4. #4
    AutomaticMonkey
    Guest

    AutomaticMonkey: Generally I agree

    > Rainer I understand what you are saying ? but I want
    > to look at a larger context.

    > First, the large casinos understand shuffle-tracking
    > in vastly more detail than the average player. Come
    > on, does anyone actually believe that these
    > multi-billion dollar corps are completely ignorant of
    > the effects of shuffling? Do you believe Harrah?s does
    > not understand how to shuffle cards?

    > Think about it; when people on these forums say they
    > won?t talk about AP methods; they are hiding info from
    > whom? They are not hiding info from casinos. Guess
    > what ? the casinos know it. They are hiding info from
    > other players because they want to keep the number of
    > APs small. They do not want you as competitors. And we
    > have people that claim to write books on ST that they
    > know are missing major concepts ? and they hide and
    > disclaim valid tools to players.

    > E-mail me and we?ll discuss. But, I?m tired of posts
    > on other sites that ?we know how to win and you?re
    > stupid.? And I?m tired of the threats against others
    > that wish to post their knowledge. And I?m tired of
    > the people that pretend to post the ?truth? when they
    > really want to keep it for themselves.

    > I?m willing to listen to other opinions. But, at this
    > point, I think we should just start telling the truth.
    > Opinions?

    Some veterans seem to think that new players and those not already "in the know" are all ignorant fools. Merrily tipping their EV away as they ruin opportunities for pros. Of course there are some people like that, but I do think some veterans take the secrecy about techniques too far. There's a very callous, cynical attitude that circulates among the old-timers and from the history I have read, dates back to the early days of advantage play and probably even predates it.

    One place where I draw the line is dicussing specific situations at specific casinos. For example I will not discuss actual trackable shuffles in use, because that is something the casino can easily change. Besides, it's not really necessary or productive. You know which AC shuffles are trackable and sequenceable at least as well as I do, so there is no point in mentioning them on an open board. Even if it doesn't tip off the casino, it might encourage an inexperienced player to go down there and try tracking before he is ready, and you know how dangerous that can be. A player who is ready to exploit these techniques knows the vulnerable shuffles when he sees them, so no value in pointing them out here.

  5. #5
    Norm Wattenberger
    Guest

    Norm Wattenberger: Agree

    There is no need to talk about specific casinos.

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