Composition Dependent
8 decks, dealer hits on soft 17, no double after split, late surrender against ten. Hose edge = about 0.7% (wizardofodds.com : -0.7892% + late surrender +0.07%)
7,8 > 10, hit= -0.500949
5,10 > 10, hit= -0.504049
I use composition dependent BS, flat bet on a CSM table,
7,8 > 10 ?
hit = -0.500949
surrender = -0.5, but will get -0.7% on a new hand.
Should I hit or surrender?
> Composition Dependent
> 8 decks, dealer hits on soft 17, no double after
> split, late surrender against ten. Hose edge = about
> 0.7% (wizardofodds.com : -0.7892% + late surrender
> +0.07%)
> 7,8 > 10, hit= -0.500949
> 5,10 > 10, hit= -0.504049
> I use composition dependent BS, flat bet on a CSM
> table,
> 7,8 > 10 ?
> hit = -0.500949
> surrender = -0.5, but will get -0.7% on a new hand.
> Should I hit or surrender?
Going by the edge, these must be London Rules. On top of that, you're faced with a CSM. So WHY would you even consider playing in such a game?!!
The "but will get -0.7% on a new hand" is irrelevant, and has NOTHING to do with THIS hand. This hand, as crappy as it is, is what you must deal with, one way or the other, before you ever get to the "new hand."
The choices are (a) hit and lose 0.500949 or (b) surrender and lose 0.5000000. The difference is a whopping 0.000949. With a 10-pound bet, you're talking about less than one penny. Given the game and the rules, I'd call it a coin flip.
My advice is: save your money by not playing this game until you accumulate enough to afford to travel to some place that has a game worth playing.
> Going by the edge, these must be London Rules. On top
> of that, you're faced with a CSM. So WHY would you
> even consider playing in such a game?!!
> The "but will get -0.7% on a new hand" is
> irrelevant, and has NOTHING to do with THIS hand. This
> hand, as crappy as it is, is what you must deal with,
> one way or the other, before you ever get to the
> "new hand."
> The choices are (a) hit and lose 0.500949 or (b)
> surrender and lose 0.5000000. The difference is a
> whopping 0.000949. With a 10-pound bet, you're talking
> about less than one penny. Given the game and the
> rules, I'd call it a coin flip.
> My advice is: save your money by not playing this game
> until you accumulate enough to afford to travel to
> some place that has a game worth playing.
Thanks for the advice. And have to apologize because I did not tell this is not a real case.
But actually I do have to play some CSM games with disadvantage.
Some reasons by imagination: I have to finish some non cash chips, or I would like to talk to the dealer, or I want to study the machine, or I have to sit there to peek the hole card on the other table?
If the question is too simple, here are some more assumptions:
Clint Eastwood is the dealer, so he can finish all his actions in half a second.
I have 10 seconds whenever I have to make a decision.
?No surrender? and then ?hit/stay? are two decisions.(Somewhere in Asia, the dealer will put a plastic card to your box to ask if you want to surrender, then will put another plastic card to ask if you want to hit or stay)
Now go back to my question, I have to make a turnover of some amounts, or I have play on that table for some hours, I want to minimize my disadvantage, should I hit or should I surrender?
Before Salmon comes to tell me to forget it, I have to admit that this is a purely theoretical question, without any practical purpose.
BTW, London is not so bad ( -0.5?%), and it is my favorite place for blackjack.
> .. I have to sit there to peek the hole card on the other table ..
Really? Sherlock Holmes is OK with that!?
> Now go back to my question, I have to make a turnover
> of some amounts, or I have play on that table for some
> hours, I want to minimize my disadvantage, should I
> hit or should I surrender?
Surrender.
Don
> Surrender.
> Don
Surrender, and start a new game, -0.70%
Hit, penalty -0.09%
Thanks
7up
> BTW, London is not so bad ( -0.5?%), and it is my
> favorite place for blackjack.
In a recent thread someone asked if it is OK to use Basic Strategy as the starting advantage even though the effect of rules on Basic Strategy advantage is not the same as card counting. London would appear to be a good example of a problem. Insurance is severely limited. This has zero effect on BS advantage since BS does not use Insurance. However, it has a heavy effect on counters since it is the most important index. So, the BS edge in London is misleading to a counter.
> Surrender, and start a new game, -0.70%
> Hit, penalty -0.09%
> Thanks
> 7up
Sorry, I don't understand your question. I thought it was about BS. I thought you wanted to know, if you weren't counting, if it was better to hit 15 v. 10, or surrender, in the game you were describing. What does "start a new game" have to do with anything?
What would an "old game" be?? If it's continuing in the same shoe, instead of shuffling, how would that matter?
Don
> Sorry, I don't understand your question. I thought it
> was about BS. I thought you wanted to know, if you
> weren't counting, if it was better to hit 15 v. 10, or
> surrender, in the game you were describing. What does
> "start a new game" have to do with anything?
> What would an "old game" be?? If it's
> continuing in the same shoe, instead of shuffling, how
> would that matter?
> Don
May be I should say ?start a new hand? or ?start a new round?
I flat bet 100 usd, it is -0.7% on top, so every hand I lose 70 cents.
7,8 v 10, if I hit, it will be a 9 cents penalty (for I don?t surrender).
So I have two choices:
1. Hit: I lose 9 cents.
2. Surrender: I will lose 70 cents on the next round.
Seems losing 9 cents is better than losing 70 cents.
7up
> Really? Sherlock Holmes is OK with that!?
Sorry, not quite understand. I am from China.
> May be I should say ?start a new hand? or ?start a new
> round?
> I flat bet 100 usd, it is -0.7% on top, so every hand
> I lose 70 cents.
No, you lose 70 cents, on average, over all hands. You don't lose 70 cents on every hand you play.
> 7,8 v 10, if I hit, it will be a 9 cents penalty (for
> I don?t surrender).
No, you will lose, on average, 9 cents MORE than what you would have lost if you surrendered. I'm not sure you're understanding this.
> So I have two choices:
> 1. Hit: I lose 9 cents.
No, you don't! You lose slightly more than 50 cents!!
> 2. Surrender: I will lose 70 cents on the next round.
So what??? Is there no next round after you would hit your hand? You're not making any sense.
> Seems losing 9 cents is better than losing 70 cents.
You're not understanding. Try to follow what I have written.
Don
> So what??? Is there no next round after you would hit
> your hand? You're not making any sense.
There are some conditions in the previous post:
I have 10 seconds whenever I have to make a decision.
?No surrender? and then ?hit/stay? are two decisions.(Somewhere in Asia, the dealer will put a plastic card to your box to ask if you want to surrender, then will put another plastic card to ask if you want to hit or stay)
?or I have to play on that table for some hours??
I will put my examples in more details in the next post, hope that will separate the language problem and the mathematics problem.
Case 1, for some reasons, I have to spend 10 or more seconds playing at that table. ( the concept will be the same if I have to play there for 10 hours, in the 10 hours, I will meet several times of 7,8 v 10, then every time I will spend the same seconds with more expected value.)
(Case 1a), After I say ?no surrender?, I can spend 10 seconds to make the decision to hit, then I can leave.
My expected value of this case is -$50.0949
(Case 1b), I surrender, -$50.00
Play one more round, the expected value of this additional round is -$0.7, then I can leave.
So totally -$50.7
I have to do (case 1a) or (case 1b) before I leave the table.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Case 2, I have to finish my junket chips, which the dealer will take it if I lose, take half if I surrender, but the chips will remain if I win the hand, pays me cash chips for the winning only.
In this case, I bet $100 on 4 tables at the same time, total $400, and I got the same 7,8 on 4 tables, and the dealer?s up cards are all 10s.
(Case 2a), I hit them all, my expectation is about winning at one from four tables, the expected value is (-$50.0949 ) * 4 = -$200.3796, and I have $100 junket chips leave.
Total expected value = -$200.3796, + $100 junket chips
(Case 2b) I surrender them all, -$200.00, and I have $200 junket chips.
Since I have to bet the junket chips about 2 times in order to finish them.
For the $100 junket chips more in (Case 2b), its expected value is -$0.7 * 2 = -$1.40
Total expected value = -$201.40, + $100 junket chips
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