Geoff Hall: Can anyone simulate these rules ?

[Geoff Hall]

I'm trying to check my calculations on the rules below but find that SBA is not producing the expected results possibly down to the fact that the program does not change it's strategy for the '6 card charlie' and 6,7,8 / 7,7,7 bonuses.

Any educated responses would be very much appreciated.

The rules are :-

6 Decks
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
ENHC
Double hard 9,10,11 only
DAS
Early surrender verses dealer 10 (not Ace)
6 card 'Charlie' is an automatic winner
6,7,8 (any suit) pays bonus of 1/1 (then you finish hand as normal)
7,7,7 (any suit) pays bonus of 3/1 (then you finish the hand as normal)

For last 2 rules by 'normal' I mean that if the dealer gets 21 then you 'push' etc, but you would always win the bonus.

I calculate a house edge of 0% whearas SBA is coming out at around 0.14%.

Can anyone help with this ?

Thanks

Geoff

[Geoff Hall]

Sorry, forget to include that you can split up to 4 hands and you cannot resplit Aces.

[Norm Wattenberger]

I don't see anything that CVData doesn't handle.

> Sorry, forget to include that you can split up to 4
> hands and you cannot resplit Aces.

[Geoff Hall]

> I don't see anything that CVData doesn't handle.
Thanks Norm

I tried CVData but couldn't see where you could input a 6-card 'Charlie' as being an automatic winner. Instead you had to pay a 'bonus'.
I also got player +'ve for this (around 0.1%) but I'm not confident with my handling of the simulator.

Extremely versatile program though !

VBR
Geoff

[MGP]

> I'm trying to check my calculations on the rules below
> but find that SBA is not producing the expected
> results possibly down to the fact that the program
> does not change it's strategy for the '6 card charlie'
> and 6,7,8 / 7,7,7 bonuses.

> Any educated responses would be very much appreciated.

> The rules are :-

> 6 Decks
> Dealer Stands on Soft 17
> ENHC
> Double hard 9,10,11 only
> DAS
> Early surrender verses dealer 10 (not Ace)
> 6 card 'Charlie' is an automatic winner
> 6,7,8 (any suit) pays bonus of 1/1 (then you finish
> hand as normal)
> 7,7,7 (any suit) pays bonus of 3/1 (then you finish
> the hand as normal)

> For last 2 rules by 'normal' I mean that if the dealer
> gets 21 then you 'push' etc, but you would always win
> the bonus.

and SPL3, RSA1, No HSA/DSA from your other post.

But For 678 and 777 - does any suit mean it has to be suited or that it's any suited or non-suited hand? ES10 here I assume you mean surrender 2-9, and No surrender is allowed vs A or just late surrender vs A? Finally - when you say automatic winner for the 6-card Charlie, do you mean against dealer BJ as well? My CA can handle all of these rules so I should be able to getyou an exact number (assuming no more bugs...).

Thanks,
MGP

[Norm Wattenberger]

Thanks. I'll add an auto-win box.

> Thanks Norm

> I tried CVData but couldn't see where you could input
> a 6-card 'Charlie' as being an automatic winner.
> Instead you had to pay a 'bonus'.
> I also got player +'ve for this (around 0.1%) but I'm
> not confident with my handling of the simulator.

> Extremely versatile program though !

> VBR
> Geoff

[Geoff Hall]

> and SPL3, RSA1, No HSA/DSA from your other post.

> But For 678 and 777 - does any suit mean it has to be
> suited or that it's any suited or non-suited hand?
> ES10 here I assume you mean surrender 2-9, and No
> surrender is allowed vs A or just late surrender vs A?
> Finally - when you say automatic winner for the 6-card
> Charlie, do you mean against dealer BJ as well? My CA
> can handle all of these rules so I should be able to
> getyou an exact number (assuming no more bugs...).

> Thanks,
> MGP

Thanks MGP,

To clarify, 6,7,8 & 7,7,7 can be in any suits and the bonus wins automatically. Whether the player wins the hand depends on the dealer's final total.
ES10 is being allowed to surrender from 2-10. There is no surrender at all against an Ace.
6-card 'Charlie' will be an automatic payout regardless of what the dealer gets. The payout is 1/1.

Hope this helps & I appreciate your help.

Best regards

Geoff

[MGP]

Thanks for the clarifications.

I get the following EVs:

CD: 0.009604145053597%
2C: -0.075993303940115%
Easy Forced: -0.028508760213932%
Complex Forced: 0.008229606352266%

Now with the 2C value it's artifically low because it's hitting 6-card hands when the strat calls for it and it's not hitting all 5-card softs.

The Easy Forced Strategy only uses the following exceptions to the 2-card strategy:
6 Card Hard Stand
6 Card Soft Stand
5 Card Soft Hit

The Complex Forced strategy stands/hits as in the Easy Forced Strategy and also hits the following 4-5 card hands:
5 Card Hard 17 vs 9 Hit
5 Card Hard 17 vs 10 Hit
5 Card Hard 17 vs A Hit

4 Card Soft 18 vs 2 Hit
4 Card Soft 18 vs 3 Hit
4 Card Soft 18 vs 4 Hit
4 Card Soft 18 vs 5 Hit
4 Card Soft 18 vs 6 Hit
4 Card Soft 18 vs 8 Hit

4 Card Soft 19 vs 10 Hit
4 Card Soft 19 vs A Hit

5 Card Hard 12 vs 4 Hit
5 Card Hard 12 vs 5 Hit
5 Card Hard 12 vs 6 Hit

4 Card Hard 13 vs 2 Hit
5 Card Hard 13 vs 2 Hit
5 Card Hard 13 vs 3 Hit
5 Card Hard 13 vs 4 Hit
5 Card Hard 13 vs 5 Hit
5 Card Hard 13 vs 6 Hit

5 Card Hard 14 vs 2 Hit
5 Card Hard 14 vs 3 Hit
5 Card Hard 14 vs 4 Hit
5 Card Hard 14 vs 5 Hit
5 Card Hard 14 vs 6 Hit

5 Card Hard 15 vs 2 Hit
5 Card Hard 15 vs 3 Hit
5 Card Hard 15 vs 4 Hit
5 Card Hard 15 vs 5 Hit
5 Card Hard 15 vs 6 Hit

5 Card Hard 16 vs 2 Hit

These are slightly different then the exceptions on the other 6-Card Charlie thread on the beginner page although I didn't check in detail why (I think I didn't check 4 card 13 vs 2 in the other thread).

> I'm trying to check my calculations on the rules below
> but find that SBA is not producing the expected
> results possibly down to the fact that the program
> does not change it's strategy for the '6 card charlie'
> and 6,7,8 / 7,7,7 bonuses.

> Any educated responses would be very much appreciated.

> The rules are :-

> 6 Decks
> Dealer Stands on Soft 17
> ENHC
> Double hard 9,10,11 only
> DAS
> Early surrender verses dealer 10 (not Ace)
> 6 card 'Charlie' is an automatic winner
> 6,7,8 (any suit) pays bonus of 1/1 (then you finish
> hand as normal)
> 7,7,7 (any suit) pays bonus of 3/1 (then you finish
> the hand as normal)

> For last 2 rules by 'normal' I mean that if the dealer
> gets 21 then you 'push' etc, but you would always win
> the bonus.

> I calculate a house edge of 0% whearas SBA is coming
> out at around 0.14%.

> Can anyone help with this ?

> Thanks

My pleasure

Sincerely,
MGP

[Norm Wattenberger]

[Geoff Hall]

Hi MGP

Thankyou for taking the time to not only perform the calculations but also to reply with such a comprehensive report.

I really appreciate the extremely helpful advice.

All the best

Geoff

[MGP]

> Hi MGP

> Thankyou for taking the time to not only perform the
> calculations but also to reply with such a
> comprehensive report.

> I really appreciate the extremely helpful advice.

> All the best

> Geoff

Your welcome. It was bothering me that the two strategies differed slightly so I went back to see and it was just that I hadn't included the 4 card 13 vs 2 rule. I also realized I didn't look at 4 card 12's and sure enough you should hit those as well so now the EV is almost all of the CD EV - I'm too lazy to look at individual multi-card hand exceptions though. Here's the summarized strategy for n-card hands:

You should stand on any 6 card hand.

You should hit:

Any 5-card Soft hand.
4 card Soft 18 vs 2-6,8
4 card Soft 19 vs 10,A

4,5 card Hard 12 vs 4-6
4 card Hard 13 vs 2
5 card Hard 13-15 vs 2-6
5 card Hard 16 vs 2
5 card Hard 17 vs 9,10,A

CD EV: 0.009604145053597%
Complex Forced: 0.008890870695961%

I also forgot to mention that the 2C strategies are using Hits (instead of Stand/Surrender) for:

2,T vs 4 (S)
6,7 vs 2-4 (S)
6,8 vs 2 (S),10 (R)
7,8 vs 10 (R)
7,7 vs 10 (R)

16 vs 10 in this case is also R,H not R,S.

You should Hit and not Split 3,3 vs 2.

If you need the full strategies (including doubles/surrenders) I can post the full tables too but I assume you know the rest.

Sincerely,
MGP

[Geoff Hall]

> Your welcome. It was bothering me that the two
> strategies differed slightly so I went back to see and
> it was just that I hadn't included the 4 card 13 vs 2
> rule. I also realized I didn't look at 4 card 12's and
> sure enough you should hit those as well so now the EV
> is almost all of the CD EV - I'm too lazy to look at
> individual multi-card hand exceptions though. Here's
> the summarized strategy for n-card hands:

> You should stand on any 6 card hand.

> You should hit:

> Any 5-card Soft hand.
> 4 card Soft 18 vs 2-6,8
> 4 card Soft 19 vs 10,A

> 4,5 card Hard 12 vs 4-6
> 4 card Hard 13 vs 2
> 5 card Hard 13-15 vs 2-6
> 5 card Hard 16 vs 2
> 5 card Hard 17 vs 9,10,A

> CD EV: 0.009604145053597%
> Complex Forced: 0.008890870695961%

> I also forgot to mention that the 2C strategies are
> using Hits (instead of Stand/Surrender) for:

> 2,T vs 4 (S)
> 6,7 vs 2-4 (S)
> 6,8 vs 2 (S),10 (R)
> 7,8 vs 10 (R)
> 7,7 vs 10 (R)

> 16 vs 10 in this case is also R,H not R,S.

> You should Hit and not Split 3,3 vs 2.

> If you need the full strategies (including
> doubles/surrenders) I can post the full tables too but
> I assume you know the rest.

> Sincerely,
> MGP

Thanks again MGP

Just to clarify one point and that is I am assuming that the CD is the most exact figure with the Forced result trying to be as close as possible to back up the results.

I was trying to get a game that has a house edge of 0% so, despite my poor efforts in the analysis, my original guess was quite close :-)

Would you consider this effectively a 0% game ?

(I suppose you could allow spltting to just 2 hands which would subtract 0.01% and be even closer ?).

Once again you have been a great help.

VBR
Geoff

[MGP]

> Just to clarify one point and that is I am assuming
> that the CD is the most exact figure with the Forced
> result trying to be as close as possible to back up
> the results.

CD is simply composition dependent. Splits for the CD strategy are CDZ-, i.e. they use the same pre-split and post-split strategies for each individual hand.

The forced strategy is a 2C strategy that forces the plays mentioned. A 2C strategy is one in which the best strategy is picked for 2 card hands and then 3-or more card hands are played by a TD strategy. The same strategy is used pre and post-split. Then the exceptions are made as listed pre-split since the bonuses are not paid post-split.

It is not a backup of results - it is simply a modification of a true 2C strategy.

One quick correction - in my CA first you have to enter the rule and then you have to turn it on - I forgot to turn on all of the new forced rules as I was making them so the actual EV using all of those forced rules is much closer to the CD EV - sorry about that:

CD: 0.009604145053597%
Complete Complex Forced: 0.009499629507286%

If you were wondering what a BS strategy player who didn't want to memorize a lot of exceptions would expect to achieve in EV - I would guess it would be the Easy Forced strategy because it only uses "no brainer" exceptions. Actually, they might not realize the last exceptions should be made and might hit all 67, 68, 78's. Most people would R,H 16 vs 10 anyway. Let's also assume they stand 2,T vs 4. The EV in this case would be worse than TD strat:

TD EV: -0.098571134958803%
"Usual" but hit poss bonuses TD Strat EV: -0.111991813455654%

By the way - the TD strat in this game (which is when all hands are based on the Total - the strategy is to hit not surrender 14 vs 10).

If they just did the proper TD strat but Stood on 6 card hands, and hit 5 Card softs but surrendered 14 vs 10 then you get:

TD Easy Adjust EV with Surr 14 vs 10: -0.09401327506818%
TD Easy Adjust EV with Hit 14 vs 10: -0.050701338053531%

Anyways, the normal player would obviously not know most of the exceptions since they don't have my CA , so would be playing with a negative EV game.

> I was trying to get a game that has a house edge of 0%
> so, despite my poor efforts in the analysis, my
> original guess was quite close :-)

Very

> Would you consider this effectively a 0% game ?

I have no idea What do you consider a 0% Game? One in which the house edge can be zero for someone with normal intelligence and my CA without counting? One that is zero for the player who uses a casino BS table? Is 0.09% considered to be the same as 0%?

> (I suppose you could allow spltting to just 2 hands
> which would subtract 0.01% and be even closer ?).

It would put you using the Complex Forced strategy at 0.001809233231043%.

I'm guessing you can't get much closer than that without weird payoffs.

> VBR

What's VBR if you don't mind me asking?

MGP