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Thread: Frank Smith: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

  1. #1
    Frank Smith
    Guest

    Frank Smith: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    What would be the standard deviation per hand in blackjack using basic strategy, playing 1,2, or 3 spots with a 1 to 4 unit bet spread, or a 1 to 10 unit bet spread, in a six-deck game with double after split, dealer stands on soft-seventeen.

  2. #2
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    > What would be the standard deviation per hand in
    > blackjack using basic strategy, playing 1,2, or 3
    > spots with a 1 to 4 unit bet spread, or a 1 to 10 unit
    > bet spread, in a six-deck game with double after
    > split, dealer stands on soft-seventeen.

    Impossible to answer if you don't tell us how often you make each size wager. It will become extremely complicated, if you play multiple spots and vary the bet sizes.

    Don

  3. #3
    jblaze
    Guest

    jblaze: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    Without spreading, and with average (4.5) pen, I get an SD of about 11.4 playing one hand, 18.9 playing two. (CVCX)

    > Impossible to answer if you don't tell us how often
    > you make each size wager. It will become extremely
    > complicated, if you play multiple spots and vary the
    > bet sizes.

    > Don

  4. #4
    jblaze
    Guest

    jblaze: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    > Without spreading, and with average (4.5) pen, I get
    > an SD of about 11.4 playing one hand, 18.9 playing
    > two. (CVCX)

    That's per 100 hands.

  5. #5
    Frank Smith
    Guest

    Frank Smith: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    > Impossible to answer if you don't tell us how often
    > you make each size wager. It will become extremely
    > complicated, if you play multiple spots and vary the
    > bet sizes.

    > Don

    let us consider only the case involving the 1 unit to 4 unit bet spread, assuming that 1 unit is wagered 25% of the time, 2 units are wagered 25% of the time, 3 units are wagered 25% of the time, and 4 units are wagered 25% of the time.

  6. #6
    Parker
    Guest

    Parker: Confused

    > let us consider only the case involving the 1 unit to
    > 4 unit bet spread, assuming that 1 unit is wagered 25%
    > of the time, 2 units are wagered 25% of the time, 3
    > units are wagered 25% of the time, and 4 units are
    > wagered 25% of the time.

    If you're playing basic strategy, what criteria are you using to determine when to increase your bet? A progression? Divine guidance?

  7. #7
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    > That's per 100 hands.

    I actually knew that! :-)

    There's no problem at all with flat betting. The per-hand s.d. is 1.14 or 1.15, depending on rules. The unanswerable question comes when spreading, because we don't know how many hands are bet at each level.

    Don

  8. #8
    Don Schlesinger
    Guest

    Don Schlesinger: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    > let us consider only the case involving the 1 unit to
    > 4 unit bet spread, assuming that 1 unit is wagered 25%
    > of the time, 2 units are wagered 25% of the time, 3
    > units are wagered 25% of the time, and 4 units are
    > wagered 25% of the time.

    So, s.d. = sqrt(.25*1.30[1^2 + 2^2 + 3^2 + 4^2]) = 3.122 units per hand = 31.22 units per hour, assuming 100 hands per hour.

    Don

  9. #9
    Frank Smith
    Guest

    Frank Smith: Re: Confused

    > If you're playing basic strategy, what criteria are
    > you using to determine when to increase your bet? A
    > progression? Divine guidance?

    I am interested in the standard deviation based upon the criteria mentioned with respect units wagered and frequency. No need to consider win progression, loss progression, or divine intervention.

  10. #10
    Frank Smith
    Guest

    Frank Smith: Re: Standard deviation in blackjack using basic strategy

    > So, s.d. = sqrt(.25*1.30[1^2 + 2^2 + 3^2 + 4^2]) =
    > 3.122 units per hand = 31.22 units per hour, assuming
    > 100 hands per hour.

    > Don

    What effect does the decision to play 2,3,4,5,6, or 7 hands have upon the standard deviation using the same betting scheme mentioned for each hand played? Does the 1.30 figure cited in the formula change appreciably as one increases the number of hands played from 2 through 7.

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