fatcat519: KO Insurance Question.(DS?)

[fatcat519]

Of necessity I play an 8-deck game with the usual AC rules, (S17, DOA, DAS to 4 hands,75%). I?ve been using KO Full for several years now,and on rereading the book recently there?s a statement, (P.83), that puzzles me:
?Making correct insurance decisions is more valuable with bigger bet spreads and in games with fewer decks. It?s worth .2% in a single-deck game with a 1-10 bet spread, but essentially nothing in the 8-deck game.?

It?s this last part that bothers me. Everything else that I read seems to say that insurance is the most important of the index plays. DS, in BJA3, shows that insurance is worth more than one third of the total I18 gain. If insurance is worth nothing in the 8-deck game, then what are the rest of the lower ranked plays worth? (For 6-decks the KO authors report a gain of .01% which is next to nothing as well.)

I realize that Don?s calculations are based on Hi-Lo, 4 decks, 75%, and 1 to 2x6 spread. But he also says that ?Results are applicable to A.C. games and plays recommended would be identical for 6- and 8-deck shoes. Only the magnitude of the gain would change.?

Is this the core of the problem? Could the differences between KO, 8-deck, and Hi-Lo 4-deck reduce the value of insurance to zero?
And again, would the rest of the I18 become worthless?

If so, maybe I should never take insurance, since taking insurance only with a big bet out is said to be a major counter tip-off?

My usual spread is 1 to 2x10. Would that make much difference?

I would appreciate any enlightenment on this topic. (Maybe other KO users would as well.)

[Don Schlesinger]

> Of necessity I play an 8-deck game with the usual AC
> rules, (S17, DOA, DAS to 4 hands,75%). I?ve been using
> KO Full for several years now,and on rereading the
> book recently there?s a statement, (P.83), that
> puzzles me:
> ?Making correct insurance decisions is more valuable
> with bigger bet spreads and in games with fewer decks.
> It?s worth .2% in a single-deck game with a 1-10 bet
> spread, but essentially nothing in the 8-deck game .?

Surprising remark and surely not true.

> It?s this last part that bothers me. Everything else
> that I read seems to say that insurance is the most
> important of the index plays.

Along with 16 v. 10, it is, without question.

> DS, in BJA3, shows that
> insurance is worth more than one third of the total
> I18 gain.

Then it must be true!! :-)

> If insurance is worth nothing in the 8-deck
> game, then what are the rest of the lower ranked plays
> worth? (For 6-decks the KO authors report a gain of
> .01% which is next to nothing as well.)

I have no idea what they did, but if they wrote what you said, it makes no sense to me.

> I realize that Don?s calculations are based on Hi-Lo,
> 4 decks, 75%, and 1 to 2x6 spread. But he also says
> that ?Results are applicable to A.C. games and plays
> recommended would be identical for 6- and 8-deck
> shoes. Only the magnitude of the gain would change .?

Again, all correct. It would be fairly simple to run three sims for a typical 8-deck game: 1) one with BS, 2) one with the I18, and 3) one with the I18 minus insurance. Then we'd compare the three SCOREs. Norm, gotta couple of minutes? :-)

> Is this the core of the problem? Could the differences
> between KO, 8-deck, and Hi-Lo 4-deck reduce the value
> of insurance to zero?

Reduce the value, yes. To zero? No way.

> And again, would the rest of the I18 become worthless?

Absolutely not. I'd guess that the improvement in SCORE, using the I18, over K-O with BS would be at least 35-40%, if not more.

> If so, maybe I should never take insurance, since
> taking insurance only with a big bet out is said to be
> a major counter tip-off?

See above.

> My usual spread is 1 to 2x10. Would that make much
> difference?

Makes insurance all the more valuable.

> I would appreciate any enlightenment on this topic.
> (Maybe other KO users would as well.)

We'll get you some numbers, I'm sure.

Don

[fatcat519]

Thanks Don for the kind of detailed answer you always give.

Playing about 150 hours a year for 3 years probably doesn't mean much statistically, but I still feel that correct insurance play has made money for me, so I was surprised to read that it was worthless.

I hope we will get some sim results on this.

Here's another question that's been on my mind, if you don't mind.
Spreading from 1 to 2x6, for example, looks like a 1 to 12 spread, but I've been told that it isn't really that much. Can you tell me how to calculate the equivalent one hand spread if it really is different?

Thanks again.