ShoelessD: Learning progress (long)

[ShoelessD]

Improving BJ skills is a continuing process. This site is invaluable as a learning source, but sometimes the math discussions are well beyond my understanding.

One topic that gets little discussion is ones attitude toward money. When I posted a few years ago that it was difficult to push out the big bets, because the value of those bets was equal to a gourmet dinner, or a weekend getaway, I was told to treat the chips as ammunition, not money. This is great, if you can do it. Not all good players can stomach watching a $400 dbl/dwn bet get parked in the dealers tray without some internal emotion.

Another topic that gets rarely discussed is the longevity success rate of successful players. The one criticism I have of Don's postings is his low regard for the enemy. One should never underestimate ones enemy. It's not difficult to spot successful BJ players. Eye movement and bet variations being traits that are easily spotted. Review on winning players sessions could also be easy. The short life span of individual casino success means more travel and expense. The ego's and boasting of some posters try to convey that they are Acadamy Award actors with unlimited bankrolls and success rates. I tend to discount this.

Luck, or variance, plays a much larger roll than is acknowledged. Oh yes, it has been written many times, but I don't think people really believe it. The casual BS player can indeed have results in the black for years, as well as an accomplished AP to be in the red for years. The difference in ability between an BS player and an AP is as miniscule as an AP's long term advantage over the casino. Yet I see BS players grouped with Ploppy's and drunks, and a general condecending attitude toward players with less ability. The Beginners page is great however, along with the posters that generously give constructive advice.

The "authors" that I have had discourse with on these pages have also been informative. Don, Bootlegger, Blackwood, Blaine, and most others are all helpful. However, this is a dilema in itself. If these systems and books are so good, why does the author feel the need to tell everyone else and make money at it. Why can't they just ply their trade and make more money at the tables? I suspect that have reached their BJ ceiling, and although it is a small publishing market, the money is easier than winning at the tables.

BJ is fun. There is almost nothing better than won money. Thanks for all the information that has led me to become a winning player.

[Don Schlesinger]

Several of your points are well-taken, well-expressed and should be considered by all. This one, on the other hand, is a horse of another color! :-)

"I suspect that they have reached their BJ ceiling, and although it is a small publishing market, the money is easier than winning at the tables."

What money would that be?? :-) I know you didn't mean it as a joke, but the comment will bring a huge smile to the face of virtually every blackjack author on the planet.

Don

P.S. As for underestimating the enemy, and my opinion of pit bosses, please don't confuse the two ideas. I don't underestimate ability to spot counters, especially in today's technologically laden environment. That has nothing to do with my typical comments regarding intelligence (or, rather, glaring lack thereof) of casino personnel.

[Parker]

Interesting post.

> Improving BJ skills is a continuing process. This
> site is invaluable as a learning source, but sometimes
> the math discussions are well beyond my understanding.

Don't worry about it. Not everyone here is a math guru. I certainly am not. Just as it is not necessary to understand how an internal combustion engine works in order to drive a car, it is not necessary to understand combinatorial analysis in order to know what to do with an index number. Most of the heavy math threads usually get to a summary at some point.

> One topic that gets little discussion is ones attitude
> toward money. When I posted a few years ago that it
> was difficult to push out the big bets, because the
> value of those bets was equal to a gourmet dinner, or
> a weekend getaway, I was told to treat the chips as
> ammunition, not money. This is great, if you can do
> it. Not all good players can stomach watching a $400
> dbl/dwn bet get parked in the dealers tray without
> some internal emotion.

No one enjoys losing money. However, if you cannot immediately shrug it off, it means that either you are playing above your bankroll or perhaps you simply do not have the temperment necessary for advantage play. Remember, this is not easy money, and it is not for everyone.

> The "authors" that I have had discourse with
> on these pages have also been informative. Don,
> Bootlegger, Blackwood, Blaine, and most others are all
> helpful. However, this is a dilema in itself. If these
> systems and books are so good, why does the author
> feel the need to tell everyone else and make money at
> it. Why can't they just ply their trade and make more
> money at the tables? I suspect that have reached their
> BJ ceiling, and although it is a small publishing
> market, the money is easier than winning at the
> tables.

What Don said. :-)

One of the most pervasive myths around is that blackjack writers make lots of money from book sales. Nothing could be further from the truth. I do not know of any author who would consider blackjack book royalties a significant source of his income. Most writers write because they like to help people, or because they would like to give something back to the game that will be around after they are gone.

[drumz1]

No one enjoys losing money. However, if you cannot immediately shrug it off, it means that either you are playing above your bankroll or perhaps you simply do not have the temperment necessary for advantage play. Remember, this is not easy money, and it is not for everyone.

Parker is exactly right on this. When you have multiple splits with a max bet out, you will realize just what this means.

I've been there, done that, and yes, I sweated blood.

Regards,
drumz1

[BJTr]

> One topic that gets little discussion is ones attitude
> toward money. When I posted a few years ago that it
> was difficult to push out the big bets, because the
> value of those bets was equal to a gourmet dinner, or
> a weekend getaway, I was told to treat the chips as
> ammunition, not money. This is great, if you can do
> it. Not all good players can stomach watching a $400
> dbl/dwn bet get parked in the dealers tray without
> some internal emotion.

I agreed totally on the big bets part. I have a bankroll of $400K but seldom bet over $5K, not because I didn't heva the high enough TC but because I hate losing. I can bet $2k comfortably now, am trying for $5K. I spent years around betting $1.5K level.

> Another topic that gets rarely discussed is the
> longevity success rate of successful players. The one
> criticism I have of Don's postings is his low regard
> for the enemy. One should never underestimate ones
> enemy. It's not difficult to spot successful BJ
> players. Eye movement and bet variations being traits
> that are easily spotted. Review on winning players
> sessions could also be easy. The short life span of
> individual casino success means more travel and
> expense. The ego's and boasting of some posters try to
> convey that they are Acadamy Award actors with
> unlimited bankrolls and success rates. I tend to
> discount this.

One reason of Don not playing much BJ I presumed because he was an investmnet banker, BJ is a low hourly rate job compares with his old profession...: ) I played 13 countries this year, lots travelling expenses. There was another reason for my travelling though. I will discuss it later.

> Luck, or variance, plays a much larger roll than is
> acknowledged. Oh yes, it has been written many times,
> but I don't think people really believe it. The casual
> BS player can indeed have results in the black for
> years, as well as an accomplished AP to be in the red
> for years. The difference in ability between an BS
> player and an AP is as miniscule as an AP's long term
> advantage over the casino. Yet I see BS players
> grouped with Ploppy's and drunks, and a general
> condecending attitude toward players with less
> ability. The Beginners page is great however, along
> with the posters that generously give constructive
> advice.

Of course luck plays a BIG part on our profession. My friend played at a 2%-plus advantage game, won $25K in 6 hours. I went together with him the next day. He lost $22K, I $8K. He was barred. I won $12K the second day and been barred. I hoped we had better luck such as winning $25K in the 2 days we were allowed on the game but...: <

> The "authors" that I have had discourse with
> on these pages have also been informative. Don,
> Bootlegger, Blackwood, Blaine, and most others are all
> helpful. However, this is a dilema in itself. If these
> systems and books are so good, why does the author
> feel the need to tell everyone else and make money at
> it. Why can't they just ply their trade and make more
> money at the tables? I suspect that have reached their
> BJ ceiling, and although it is a small publishing
> market, the money is easier than winning at the
> tables.

I wrote 6 Chinese books on BJ and travelling, have 4 Gamglin/Travelling columns at 4 countries. I wrote because I like to write. I won average about $200 an hour for the past 2 years, much lower at writing but I enjoy more about writing. I consider writing as my first preferred job, BJ second. I am trying to write a science fiction now.

> BJ is fun. There is almost nothing better than won
> money. Thanks for all the information that has led me
> to become a winning player.

This makes the difference between amateur and pro. Playing BJ is BORING. I had fun within 3,000 hours on BJ tables, after 3,000, it was just a painful grinding process. I am now over 12,000, still grinding. I did it because money but no fun from it. I worked only about 900 hours this year so far, 2 or 3 hours a day some times because it was boring. I want to make more money but stopped playing because no fun. I might make more money playing at America but I can't stand the boring of playing at similar places days after days so I travelled and played. I can't change the contents of my job(BJ) but I can change the surroundings. I played 52 countries so far, am trying for 100. Shuffle tracking is more intersting but there are not enough trackable shuffles or shuffles are trackable but too complicate making it painful... a dilema there. I hope there are pros who can advise me on how to handle the boring part of the job but most pros I came across were as lazy as I am...: )

[Sun Runner]

> The difference in ability between a BS player and an AP is
> as miniscule as an AP's long term advantage over the
> casino.

And the difference between 'an AP' and one who consistently over time knocks the house down is even smaller. So why does one guy grind out $250 a month and one guy knock down $100K or more annually?

I think the difference is their attitude.

It has nothing to do with education, training, practice, what count you use, how many indices you employ, time in the game .. none of it. The difference is attitude.

Of course you have to learn the game, learn it right, and practice it till it is second nature. Obviously. That's the easy part and probably 75% of the people readng this now are past that point. It dosen't take a math whiz using an L3 count and 150 indices who can count down a deck in 15 seconds.

Those 75% probably know more now about the science of Blackjack and how to technically play than any of the old timers who killed this game.

The difference in people who know what to do .. and people who do .. is so small it's frightening.

In Blackjack, like most any gamble, it begins by not being afraid to bet big when you have the cards, to get the big bets out when you have the advantage, and being tenacious in going again when you get killed.

Of course, it's just my opinion.

Thanks ShoelessD.

[Sun Runner]

I always look forward to reading what you have to say.

You said you earn about $200/hour.

Could you (would you) describe the typical game you have found world wide and what the spread is you employ?

Thanks again.

[BJTr]

> You said you earn about $200/hour.
> Could you (would you) describe the typical game you
> have found world wide and what the spread is you
> employ?

I played 13 countries this year. Let me try telling you the games I played this year in sequence without naming countries... I am writing an English book titled "90,000 BJ Miles" detailed all my plays between Dec 14, 04 to Dec 14, 05. I bought a skyteam round-the-world ticket leaving my home on Dec 14, 04, returned home exactly Dec 14, 05... I haven't returned yet... will go to a TV interview at LA on Dec 12.
A. Prague
Full ES, 50% pen, $400 max, 20 times spread. Spread one box table minimum to 7 boxes table maximum.
B. ES10, 5 to 250 Euros tables, no 2.5 euros chips, when surrender or BJ, 5 Euros were imprisoned then given to player if next hand player win OR PUSH. Bet 7 boxes 5 Euros up to 3 boxes 250 Euros.
C. LV
Bet $25 to $3.6K, hit and ran and ran and ran ran ran... also did sequential trackings
D. Vancouver
5 C$ to two 200 C$, crowded table, was there visiting a dying friend.
E. Full ES game, read the game at Dec., 04 bj21 archieve wrten by Isebella, 2 25 Euros to 3 250 Euros.
F. Prague
DD and SD, 50% penetration, read my trip report on blackforumonline.com under "Prague Spring".
G. A strange game, won $14K in one month, mainly vacation.
H. ES10, D3(9/10/11), 50% pen, $5 to $200, min to max.
I. Full ES, 2 to 1 any 678, $93 max, bet 7 boxes, spreaded 4 times to table max.
J. ES10, $1,200 max. Bet 2 boxes $40 to $400 7 boxes, won $18,600 min 5 nights, not barred, fully comped.
K.
a. 2 to 1 any BJ, 6 hours a day, $500 max. bet 7 boxes $200 on CSM, barred after one session winning $12K.
b. 10 to 1 on Bacarrat tie game, $350 max, bet up to $125. EV was 4.5%.
c. Full ES, D3(9/10/11), bet $25 to 3 boxes $500.
d. ES10, D3(9/10/11), bet one $50 to 3 $2K. Table is $50 to $2K.
e. A 1.09% game... full ES, 4 to1 any 678, 3 to 1 5 cards 21, O/U etc.
L. Full ES, any BJ 2 to 1, 5 hours a day, max $45, always 7 boxes max. Other time full ES, 2 to 1 any 678, 2 to 1 5 cards 21.
M. 40 to 1 on 3 numbers on Double 00 Roulette, $25 max, bet $10 on 3 boxes.
Hope these explained... I may try Star Alliance round-the-world ticket next year, hopefully I will find better games...: ) Cheers,

[serge b]

Playing BJ is BORING. I had fun within 3,000 hours on
> BJ tables, after 3,000, it was just a painful grinding
> process. I am now over 12,000, still grinding. I did
> it because money but no fun from it. I worked only
> about 900 hours this year so far, 2 or 3 hours a day
> some times because it was boring. I want to make more
> money but stopped playing because no fun.

Sounds like you need to Bankroll someone young, someone hungry...Someone like me who is currently TRUELY grinding it out for 8$ per hour. (I dont beleive the word "Grinding" should be used anytime you make more then 50$/hour)

Being a student, 2000$ is the most i could scrape up for a bankroll (If you can call it that) It will take me approx 250 hours to double bank, 500 to triple it. My Betting unit is currently 5$ and have decided I will not move up to a 10$ unit until I have tripled my orginal bankroll.

500 Hours @ 8$ = 4000$
500 Hours @ 16$ = 8000$
500 Hours @ 32$ = 16000$
500 Hours @ 64$ = 32000$

For the next 9 Months(approx) I will be makin and average of 30$ per Hour.

If you say your currently making 200$ per hour I imagine you could pay someone like me 50$ hour to do the playing for you right?

If we take 2800 Hours that could have been played this year ( 8 Hours a day for 350 Days)and remove the 900 you actually played, It leaves us with 1900 Hours.
150$ / Hour * 1900 Hours per year = 285 000$/Year.
Someone like myself could have been worth 285 000$ to you this year.

So in Ending, Save 4 Months of True Grinding, from a young BlackJack players life and Hire him at 50$ an Hour :>

[Sun Runner]

When you did mention penetration you mentioned 50%.
Was this representative of the other games played?

You mentioned sequence tracking once. Do you find many trackable games?

Thanks again -looking forward to the book; maybe Bettie could hook up some signed books for sale !?

Take care.

[BJTr]

> When you did mention penetration you mentioned 50%.
> Was this representative of the other games played?

Many good rule games are 50% penetration. Many become 50% when you win or jump bets. LV I played mostly 6D which is 75% pen., also Vancouver. Two games are particular good because rules are ES10 with 1D pen and not much heat.

> You mentioned sequence tracking once. Do you find many
> trackable games?

Not many. I played some block trackable games last years at Greece (Corfu which had since changed to wash every round) and other places. I didn't find good block trackable games this year or because the rules are so good I didn't bother tracking. The 2 to 1 6 hours game used the simplest shuffle but I didn't bother tracking for obvious reason.

> Thanks again -looking forward to the book; maybe
> Bettie could hook up some signed books for sale !?

Sure. Hopefully I can finish it by March next year.

> Take care.

[BJTr]

> Sounds like you need to Bankroll someone young,
> someone hungry...Someone like me who is currently
> TRUELY grinding it out for 8$ per hour.

Yes, you are right. I did organize team before. There are many problems, however:

1. StealingSSS
I gave $5K each to two CCs to be big players, they lost on roulette... or they claimed so... I used them as spotters trying to get my money back, one of them broke my room (I rented an apartment at LV then) and stole $10K while I went back my country. The first we won $66K. They were paid $6,000 each, they lost all at roulette... or they claimed so.

2. Skills
Different skills required for international plays. In many cases, there are limited casinos which can take certain loss, more players only cost more.

3. Integrity
The young, hungry CC may claim he/she loses while he wins so that he can make $10K in one session instead of grinding at $50 an hour... Or he won $10K luckily in one session and claims he won $3K.

4. Gamblings
I asked a player betting $50 on one number of roulette when the casino had a promotion giving 50 to 1 on that number. That player bet 10 numbers $50 because he loved gambling.

5. Transporting large sum of money across airport
recenty I asked a young, poor CC carrying $40K taking a domestic flight at Vezeuela. He was robbed by airport securities... or he claimed... $26,000... the fastest way to build a bankroll for the young and poor CC who had only $2K bankoll before?????