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Thread: AcesNEights: Recording Wins & Losses

  1. #1
    AcesNEights
    Guest

    AcesNEights: Recording Wins & Losses

    Hello folks I'm a Canadian blackjack player who has a habit of recording my wins and losses for the past 3 years. First off I'm wondering if anyone else does this?
    I'm actually sitting at a win-loss ratio of over 70%.

    My background in blackjack is that I can count down a deck using hi-lo in less than 25secs, and am able to shuffle track and cut to aces & 10's when at a shoe game.

    Unfortunately in the area I live the only games available are 6deck games or shuffle machines.

    I play with a partner who sits with me and he counts while I play the part of the big whale.

    Now if you are still with me I may sound like a regular card counter but I'm not. In fact, with all the literature that I've read regarding card counting I know that my method of play doesn't make sense as to why I can pull off a win ratio that is comparable or even higher than the typical card counter.

    Currently I am on a $60,000 dollar run (actually $59,700) in a matter of only 8 weeks with a win loss ratio of 38 winning sessions to 5 lossing sessions.

    Now...the reason why I am posting this is because I am wondering if anyone else just plays the "Hit and Run" game in combination with card counting.

    In fact, I not only do this with shoe games but also with shuffle machines. I pick a table where the shuffle machines have failed to shuffle properly and where the low's versus highs are clumped together respectively and bet accordingly.

    Has anyone else here thought of or gotten up and left after only 1/4 of a shoe, or less than ten minutes after sitting down?

    As soon as I'm up at least $500 I've already put that pink into my pocket and whatever I've got left I play very aggressively with...so for the most part I always go home with money. In fact...put it this way...if it wasn't for my wife freaking out about me going to the casino everyday I would settle down to making a safe $200/day five days a week.

    Don't card counters usually sit and play for hours to take advantage of the fact that "time is on our side"?

    Believe me when I say that I do feel a bit of apprehension with my current method of play of the past 3yrs...because I keep feeling like my winning percentage is artificial and just "luck".

    The only thing that makes me think otherwise is the record itself.

    Any thoughts or opinions would be appreciated.

    AcesNEights

  2. #2
    mcking
    Guest

    mcking: (Message Deleted by Poster)


  3. #3
    Magician
    Guest

    Magician: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    > I'm actually sitting at a win-loss ratio of over 70%.

    It's not difficult to win 70% of your sessions if that is your goal. A Martingale player may win over 90% of sessions but still lose money overall. Most counters make winning money their goal, not winning sessions.

    There are several good reasons to end a session of play, such as fatigue or heat from the pit (Parker once posted an excellent list; maybe someone can provide a link). Stopping play because you have won (or lost) a large amount of money is not among these and has no mathematical justification.

    > In fact, I not only do this with shoe games but also
    > with shuffle machines. I pick a table where the
    > shuffle machines have failed to shuffle properly and
    > where the low's versus highs are clumped together
    > respectively and bet accordingly.

    I am almost afraid to ask, but how exactly do you know that the machine hasn't "shuffled properly" and where the high cards are? You might wan't to read Parker's Policies before you go too deep into this territory.

  4. #4
    AcesNEights
    Guest

    AcesNEights: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    I've just returned from a 1 hour session and made $2k. So in theory I very much agree with you that perhaps this is a "positive swing in the short term fluctuation". However, according to the sessions that I've recorded I'm still consistently hovering in the 70% win bracket over these past few years.

    Do you know or does anyone know if the tactics of hit and run increase one's edge over the casino or am I extremely "lucky" right now over the past few years?

    As an example of my "hit and run"...I try not to play any more than I have to at all. My past four sessions totaled a playing time of less than 90mins but won me over 10k. So I don't know...on a related note though...the longer I do play the greater chance that I find myself hovering around the 60% mark of wins versus losses.

  5. #5
    AcesNEights
    Guest

    AcesNEights: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    > It's not difficult to win 70% of your sessions if that
    > is your goal. A Martingale player may win over 90% of
    > sessions but still lose money overall. Most counters
    > make winning money their goal, not winning sessions.

    This is actually one of the reasons why I've decided to post here and actually ask from others who do count if the run I am on is actually a "fluke" of sorts. I understand the winning session comparison to a Martingale player and do not necessarily equate my win ratio as some holy grail of blackjack.

    I agree that the goal is to make money and hence I make that my target each time.

    > There are several good reasons to end a session of
    > play, such as fatigue or heat from the pit (Parker
    > once posted an excellent list; maybe someone can
    > provide a link). Stopping play because you have won
    > (or lost) a large amount of money is not among these
    > and has no mathematical justification.

    > I am almost afraid to ask, but how exactly do you know
    > that the machine hasn't "shuffled properly"
    > and where the high cards are? You might wan't to read
    > Parker's Policies before you go too deep into this
    > territory.

    I hadn't read those policies until now. Sorry for bringing that part of my post up. My partner and I do know how to utilize hi-lo. Perhaps not as refined as some on this forum. I shall try to stay on topic according to "Parker's Policies".

    I didn't realise that what I was describing might be thought of as card clumping. I will defer to those here as the experts because I would like nothing better to NOT do than to give back the money that I have made especially if the manner I had made it had been just a lucky streak.

    If anything...I'd like the opportunity to refine my counting skills as the bankroll is substantial enough that I should be able to survive swings. I hope that I haven't broken any rules of this board as to what I may have already posted.

  6. #6
    kbp
    Guest

    kbp: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    With respect to your 70% winning sessions, check out this link.

    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/longrun.htm

    In this sim of 100 sessions of 10 hours each there were 76 winning sessions and only 24 losers. Unfortunately some of the losers are big....big enough to bring it all back to EV. Have you considered that you may not be in the long run yet and that YOUR big losers are still waiting out there?

  7. #7
    AcesNEights
    Guest

    AcesNEights: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    > With respect to your 70% winning sessions, check out
    > this link.

    >
    > http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/longrun.htm

    Thanks for the link I'll check this out when I'm at home tonight.

    > In this sim of 100 sessions of 10 hours each there
    > were 76 winning sessions and only 24 losers.
    > Unfortunately some of the losers are big....big enough
    > to bring it all back to EV. Have you considered that
    > you may not be in the long run yet and that YOUR big
    > losers are still waiting out there?

    Yes I've thought about that and am trying to stay very disciplined and strict with my money management and stop-loss limits. And you're right about me thinking about whether I am in the "long run" or not because technically I haven't and don't play the long hours that most counters do since I hit and run when I'm already up.

    I was speaking with a co-worker today about being rattled by the information I've realised and have even thought about quiting now that I am so far ahead. Or at least wait until all I do is play shoe only games and stay in for the long haul.

  8. #8
    Sonny
    Guest

    Sonny: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    > Hello folks I'm a Canadian blackjack player who has a
    > habit of recording my wins and losses for the past 3
    > years. First off I'm wondering if anyone else does this?

    We all do. Keeping accurate records of your play is very important. I also keep track of which casinos I?ve played in, which shift it was, which dealers and pit bosses were there and how much heat I got, etc. This keeps me from burning out any particular casino or shift.

    > My background in blackjack is that I can count down a
    > deck using hi-lo in less than 25secs, and am able to
    > shuffle track and cut to aces & 10's when at a shoe game.

    That?s excellent. Those two skills alone should give you a healthy edge against the casino.

    > I play with a partner who sits with me and he counts
    > while I play the part of the big whale? Now the reason
    > why I am posting this is because I am wondering if anyone
    > else just plays the "Hit and Run" game in combination
    > with card counting.

    It sounds like you are using the old BP approach. Read any of Ken Uston?s work to get more info on how they used it successfully back in the 70?s. Also, the MIT teams described the same approach in Bringing Down the House. Although this method of play is old and well known by most casinos many teams currently use this strategy successfully.

    > Has anyone else here thought of or gotten up and left
    > after only 1/4 of a shoe, or less than ten minutes after
    > sitting down?

    Sure. Many of us don?t even sit down until the count is in our favor, then leave as soon as the high cards have come out. We may only play 2-3 hands before we are gone, but we can generally get 20-30 hands per hours with a fairly high edge. This style of play, as Don says in Blackjack Attack, is de rigueur for shoe games.

    > As soon as I'm up at least $500 I've already put that
    > pink into my pocket and whatever I've got left I play
    > very aggressively with...so for the most part I always go
    > home with money.

    I would be very careful about this. I don?t know what you mean by ?very aggressively?, but keep in mind that overbetting your bankroll, even occasionally, will increase your overall risk-of-ruin. I would recommend finding a betting strategy that gives you an acceptable EV and ROR and stick with it. As Lawrence Revere put it, ?This is a discipline thing.?

    > Don't card counters usually sit and play for hours to
    > take advantage of the fact that "time is on our side"?

    Usually not. Playing long sessions can often give the casino enough time to recognize you as a card counter and ask you to leave. Many players will limit their playing sessions to 1 hour, or even less if they are winning, in order to protect their longevity. Keep in mind that 20 one hour sessions are statistically the same as 1 twenty hour session. That is another important reason to keep accurate records of your sessions.

    -Sonny-

  9. #9
    Sun Runner
    Guest

    Sun Runner: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    >> Have you considered that you may not be in the long run yet and that YOUR big losers are still waiting out
    >> there?

    What KBP states is certainly possible, I believe it is just as likely that some folks experience positive variance right off the bat, get ahead, and never look back. Sadly, I believe the opposite to be true also.

    Are big losses looming out there just so the universe can even the score on your side of the ledger? Maybe; maybe not.

    > And you're right about me thinking about whether I am in the "long run" or not
    > because technically I haven't and don't play the long
    > hours that most counters do since I hit and run when
    > I'm already up.

    Your results should be far superior to the play-all counter if you have the freedom and ability to consistently move in on good counts and out when it's bad. If you do have ability to cut Tens and Aces, your results should be better still.

    Comparing your results to some generic play-all counter would not be a good comparison.

    > I was speaking with a co-worker today about being
    > rattled by the information I've realised and have even
    > thought about quiting now that I am so far ahead.

    Quitting is an answer to preserve what you have made so far, and who could blame you. If you possess the skills you state, and are playing in what seems a very friendly environment, I probably would not.

    Honestly, after your very first post, I thought I read into it so many disconnects, fubars, and just general lack of knowledge .. while at the same time asserting above average skills in certain areas .. I wasn't sure you were on the level.

    I'm not sure still, but if you are, I would not let some initial positive variance get me down.

    PS -about the 'clumping thing.' Are you saying you feel the cards clump from some natural occurance or that the CSM is ineffective in it's operation and you have somehow discovered a way to exploit that?

    Good luck.


  10. #10
    AcesNEights
    Guest

    AcesNEights: Re: Recording Wins & Losses

    > What KBP states is certainly possible, I believe it is
    > just as likely that some folks experience positive
    > variance right off the bat, get ahead, and never look
    > back. Sadly, I believe the opposite to be true also.

    > Are big losses looming out there just so the universe
    > can even the score on your side of the ledger? Maybe;
    > maybe not.

    > Your results should be far superior to the play-all
    > counter if you have the freedom and ability to
    > consistently move in on good counts and out when it's
    > bad. If you do have ability to cut Tens and Aces, your
    > results should be better still.

    > Comparing your results to some generic play-all
    > counter would not be a good comparison.

    > Quitting is an answer to preserve what you have made
    > so far, and who could blame you. If you possess the
    > skills you state, and are playing in what seems a very
    > friendly environment, I probably would not.

    > Honestly, after your very first post, I thought I read
    > into it so many disconnects, fubars, and just general
    > lack of knowledge .. while at the same time asserting
    > above average skills in certain areas .. I wasn't sure
    > you were on the level.

    By all means am I lacking in "general" knowledge that's why I'm here to learn As I've stated my partner and I utilize the hi-lo count but don't always use the true count effectively in relation to betting unit size. I probably have been more than fortunate that whatever edge I am getting I have been winning and just leaving.

    So bringing myself "on the level" I hope that I didn't post in a manner that would make it seem like I thought I was a good counter counter or even an above average one. Hence my apprehension about where I'm sitting at in terms of money accumulated and whether it's just a time bomb waiting to go off so I lose it all because I am playing without a complete knowledge of what I am doing.

    As for whether I am playing in a friendly environment or not...So far so good. I'm still getting comped food and drinks

    > I'm not sure still, but if you are, I would not let
    > some initial positive variance get me down.

    > PS -about the 'clumping thing.' Are you saying you
    > feel the cards clump from some natural occurance or
    > that the CSM is ineffective in it's operation and you
    > have somehow discovered a way to exploit that?

    > Good luck.

    A pit boss I know once told me that he feels sorry for people who play at CSM because he "knows" that dealers can exploit them in the manner they let the discard pile build up and the number of cards that they place back into the machine. I've actually noticed a dealer in the past who would leave cards (aces and tens) in the discard pile and not place them back into the machine before and when she did this more than once in the game I commented on this and she stopped. Same pit boss told me that the thing with CSM is that they don't shuffle properly so they can be exploited because of this. So if there are 4 Ace's stuck together those same 4 Ace's have a good chance to sticking together for many cycles. Likewise if a CSM has low cards stuck together and the highs are at the other end, if you can time this right (and the dealer is replacing the discards every two deals or so) it can be exploited. However, on the same note...a CSM that has the cards equally distributed between highs & lows is a machine I tend to not want to play.

    I would love to purchase a CSM and experiment with it to actually test my theories out other than with money at the table. I could also be totally out to lunch on this and the information given to me by the pit boss could also be wrong.

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