jay: Blackjack tips for pro counters and why they wont win from counting alone

[jay]

Alright guys. Heres the deal. It is very difficult to win consistenly from professional blackjack in todays casinos.. Heres why you cant win from card counting alone..

A. Single Deck games arent dealt enough rounds. If their a 2 players at the table.. the casino will deal no more than 4 rounds. If you read Ken Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack.. you will notice that the pro counter needs at least 5 rounds on a 2 player game to make the game a GOOD game. You will not get that in today's casino. You will not get any GOOD single deck games based on the criteria in Uston's book. End result, most likely you'll lose.

B. Double Deck games are dealt until theres approximately 1 deck remaining.. thats about the best penetration your going to get in todays casino. Things just start getting good right at the 1 deck remaining mark. How do I know this? From playing experience, thats how. Card counting starts REALLY working at the 1 deck remaining mark. But guess what.. thats when they shuffle the deck.. Conclusion once again.. You cant win based on cardcounting.. and in the long term you are not favored. Therefore, losses are common. Once again... if you've read Ken Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack.. you will know that you need more than 1 deck remaining penetration on the Double Deck game to get a favorable game.. unfortunately you wont get that.

C. Multiple Deck games arent dealt enough for you to win consistently as well. Just check Ken Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack.. NONE of the games today.. qualifies as a GOOD game based on the great Ken Uston's book - Million Dollar Blackjack.

Conclusion.. You are not favored to win at professional card counting in todays casinos.. why? Because all of the blackjack games are just not good enough games for you to win.. You dont get enough penetration to win at professional card counting on a consistent basis.

Now, I believe if someone still wants to play professional blackjack.. Since there are no good games in Las Vegas today.. based on Ken Uston's great book.. The most important thing is NOT cardcounting. The most important thing is playing with a relaxed, focused, optimists mind. This is the real deal here.. this should help your winnings.. long and short term. Good Luck.
Jay
Pro Gambler

[Parker]

Gee, I haven't seen one of these for a while, even though they have been popping up regularly for at least 20 years or so. Okay, lets take it apart.

> Alright guys. Heres the deal. It is very difficult to
> win consistenly from professional blackjack in todays
> casinos.. Heres why you cant win from card counting
> alone..

Yes and no. You will not win "consistently." There will always be large swings in both directions. This simply means that you must be properly bankrolled in order to weather the inevitable negative swings. In no way does it infer that you cannot win overall in the long run.

> A. Single Deck games arent dealt enough rounds. If
> their a 2 players at the table.. the casino will deal
> no more than 4 rounds. If you read Ken Uston's Million
> Dollar Blackjack.. you will notice that the pro
> counter needs at least 5 rounds on a 2 player game to
> make the game a GOOD game. You will not get that in
> today's casino. You will not get any GOOD single deck
> games based on the criteria in Uston's book. End
> result, most likely you'll lose.

This is silly. 4 rounds to 2 players is most certainly a good game, with a SCORE into triple digits. 5 rounds to 2 players is an awesome game. Such games (both 4 rounds and 5 rounds to 2) can still be found, if you know where to look. In fact, I played such a game (5 rounds to 2) on a recent visit to Las Vegas, at a well-known downtown casino.

BTW, you make frequent references to Uston's Million Dollar Blackjack. While certainly a classic, this book was published in 1981. Since then, high-speed computer simulation software has become available to the average player, and we have learned a great deal about the game. Uston was certainly one of the early pioneers of the game, but his book is essentially obsolete.

> B. Double Deck games are dealt until theres
> approximately 1 deck remaining.. thats about the best
> penetration your going to get in todays casino. Things
> just start getting good right at the 1 deck remaining
> mark. How do I know this? From playing experience,
> thats how. Card counting starts REALLY working at the
> 1 deck remaining mark. But guess what.. thats when
> they shuffle the deck.. Conclusion once again.. You
> cant win based on cardcounting.. and in the long term
> you are not favored. Therefore, losses are common.
> Once again... if you've read Ken Uston's Million
> Dollar Blackjack.. you will know that you need more
> than 1 deck remaining penetration on the Double Deck
> game to get a favorable game.. unfortunately you wont
> get that.

I agree that a double deck game with 50% pen is unplayable. If you're not finding better games, you are simply not looking very hard. They're out there, in Las Vegas and elsewhere. True, you won't find them at every table in every casiono, but proper game selection is one of the most important parts (perhaps even the most important part) of advantage play.

> C. Multiple Deck games arent dealt enough for you to
> win consistently as well. Just check Ken Uston's
> Million Dollar Blackjack.. NONE of the games today..
> qualifies as a GOOD game based on the great Ken
> Uston's book - Million Dollar Blackjack.

See above regarding MDBJ. You really need to read some newer books. I highly recommend Blackjack Attack, Third Edition, by Don Schlesinger. I'm certain that you will find it most enlightening.

> Conclusion.. You are not favored to win at
> professional card counting in todays casinos.. why?
> Because all of the blackjack games are just not good
> enough games for you to win.. You dont get enough
> penetration to win at professional card counting on a
> consistent basis.

Go right ahead and believe that if you wish. I will just keep playing and winning, as will the people I know, many of whom derive six figure annual incomes from these unbeatable games.

> Now, I believe if someone still wants to play
> professional blackjack.. Since there are no good games
> in Las Vegas today.. based on Ken Uston's great book..

You have apparently been living in a cave for the last 24 years. This may come as a shock to you, but there are casinos offering blackjack in plenty of places other than Las Vegas.

> The most important thing is NOT cardcounting. The most
> important thing is playing with a relaxed, focused,
> optimists mind. This is the real deal here.. this
> should help your winnings.. long and short term. Good
> Luck.

I agree that a proper attitude is important. Luck has nothing to do with it.

> Jay
> Pro Gambler

If you say so. Is that you, Doogie?

[SOTSOG]

If the last and only book you have read about blackjack is Million Dollar Blackjack.

[anon]

the numbers are clear the work has been done the people are out there winning

there is clearly quantifiable edge and risk

jay u just dont get it do u

[ShoelessD]

An alternative opinion: People must realize that being a successful Advantage Player is out of reach for most interested players. Now before all the steam begins, at least try to equate what a professional blackjack is to other professions.

How many college basketball players go on to be successful professionals? 3-5% I believe. CEO's, pro athletes, top of the line medical and legal professionals are a minute percentage of the population.

Don has stated that the market for his fine books on AP Blackjack is severly limited because just not that many people have what it takes to count cards, nevermind be very good at it.

Variance over the course of a lifetime of playing, might throw the miniscule mathematical advantage into negative teritory.

If more than 300 people make a substantial living being a professional BJ player I would be very surprised. The rest of us try like hell, but for reasons of inadequate math ability, retention, concentration, bankroll, and acting abilitly we generally fail.

Jay's premise was that the game itself is almost impossible to beat because of penetration. He has a point, but as Parker said, good games can be found. My premise is that to be a professional BJ/AP you must excell at the skills an average player struggles with.....and have the money to lose.

These people are few and far between, and they deserve a tip of the cap.

[Sun Runner]

Your point is well taken, and no doubt I will never quit my day job and become a road warrior. Oh, that it would be so, I think.

However, I believe that there may be more guys out there in the 'middle' grinding out a decent EV, or at a minimum, grinding out positive EV of any sort, while at the same time being both entertained and allowing them the opportunity to at least aspire (translate Walter Mitty maybe) to growing the BR and someday 'Bringing Down the House.'

Professional Gambler Jay is, as Parker stated, just plain wrong. I was astonished that every other line started with some reference to 1981.

I think it is possible for the D, C, and B bankrolls to grind out positive EV at this thing.

And to the A bankrolls, like you, I tip my hat.

[Hollywood]

> Alright guys. Heres the deal. It is very difficult to
> win consistenly from professional blackjack in todays
> casinos.. Heres why you cant win from card counting
> alone..

> A. Single Deck games arent dealt enough rounds. If
> their a 2 players at the table.. the casino will deal
> no more than 4 rounds. If you read Ken Uston's Million
> Dollar Blackjack.. you will notice that the pro
> counter needs at least 5 rounds on a 2 player game to
> make the game a GOOD game. You will not get that in
> today's casino. You will not get any GOOD single deck
> games based on the criteria in Uston's book. End
> result, most likely you'll lose.

> B. Double Deck games are dealt until theres
> approximately 1 deck remaining.. thats about the best
> penetration your going to get in todays casino. Things
> just start getting good right at the 1 deck remaining
> mark. How do I know this? From playing experience,
> thats how. Card counting starts REALLY working at the
> 1 deck remaining mark. But guess what.. thats when
> they shuffle the deck.. Conclusion once again.. You
> cant win based on cardcounting.. and in the long term
> you are not favored. Therefore, losses are common.
> Once again... if you've read Ken Uston's Million
> Dollar Blackjack.. you will know that you need more
> than 1 deck remaining penetration on the Double Deck
> game to get a favorable game.. unfortunately you wont
> get that.

> C. Multiple Deck games arent dealt enough for you to
> win consistently as well. Just check Ken Uston's
> Million Dollar Blackjack.. NONE of the games today..
> qualifies as a GOOD game based on the great Ken
> Uston's book - Million Dollar Blackjack.

> Conclusion.. You are not favored to win at
> professional card counting in todays casinos.. why?
> Because all of the blackjack games are just not good
> enough games for you to win.. You dont get enough
> penetration to win at professional card counting on a
> consistent basis.

> Now, I believe if someone still wants to play
> professional blackjack.. Since there are no good games
> in Las Vegas today.. based on Ken Uston's great book..
> The most important thing is NOT cardcounting. The most
> important thing is playing with a relaxed, focused,
> optimists mind. This is the real deal here.. this
> should help your winnings.. long and short term. Good
> Luck.
> Jay
> Pro Gambler

The only portion I agree with is your comment regarding the pen.

Good pen is quite difficult to find. But, you can find it none the less.

To beat todays game, having good pen must be a given.

At this point, I refuse to play when the pen is not adequate.

Another problem for many players is bankroll and the ability to sustain loses. You must be well financed.

But, that being said. If those ingredients are in place and you have your A game, along with a piece of the bible (BJA) you can absolutly beat the game. I DO.

Hollywood

[Parker]

I completely agree that becoming a full time pro is not a wise career choice for most people today. For starters, the fact that you have amassed an adequate bankroll means that you have most likely found an easier way to make money.

The pros I know are all exceptional individuals who would likely succeed at any endeavor that they were to attempt. They have my highest respect.

However, that isn't what this is about. Jay flatly stated that "you cant win from card counting alone," as well as "there are no good games in Las Vegas today." Those statements are, well, Just Plain Wrong.

[Ouchez]

> Alright guys. Heres the deal. It is very difficult to
> win consistenly from professional blackjack in todays
> casinos.. Heres why you cant win from card counting
> alone..

> A. Single Deck games arent dealt enough rounds. If
> their a 2 players at the table.. the casino will deal
> no more than 4 rounds. If you read Ken Uston's Million
> Dollar Blackjack.. you will notice that the pro
> counter needs at least 5 rounds on a 2 player game to
> make the game a GOOD game. You will not get that in
> today's casino. You will not get any GOOD single deck
> games based on the criteria in Uston's book. End
> result, most likely you'll lose.

> B. Double Deck games are dealt until theres
> approximately 1 deck remaining.. thats about the best
> penetration your going to get in todays casino. Things
> just start getting good right at the 1 deck remaining
> mark. How do I know this? From playing experience,
> thats how. Card counting starts REALLY working at the
> 1 deck remaining mark. But guess what.. thats when
> they shuffle the deck.. Conclusion once again.. You
> cant win based on cardcounting.. and in the long term
> you are not favored. Therefore, losses are common.
> Once again... if you've read Ken Uston's Million
> Dollar Blackjack.. you will know that you need more
> than 1 deck remaining penetration on the Double Deck
> game to get a favorable game.. unfortunately you wont
> get that.

> C. Multiple Deck games arent dealt enough for you to
> win consistently as well. Just check Ken Uston's
> Million Dollar Blackjack.. NONE of the games today..
> qualifies as a GOOD game based on the great Ken
> Uston's book - Million Dollar Blackjack.

> Conclusion.. You are not favored to win at
> professional card counting in todays casinos.. why?
> Because all of the blackjack games are just not good
> enough games for you to win.. You dont get enough
> penetration to win at professional card counting on a
> consistent basis.

> Now, I believe if someone still wants to play
> professional blackjack.. Since there are no good games
> in Las Vegas today.. based on Ken Uston's great book..
> The most important thing is NOT cardcounting. The most
> important thing is playing with a relaxed, focused,
> optimists mind. This is the real deal here.. this
> should help your winnings.. long and short term. Good
> Luck.
> Jay
> Pro Gambler

I recently played all day, 8 hours, with both dealers placing the cut card at 88%, always no more than 6 cards left at the end. This allowed me to go into showtime mode and damn if I didn't. The dealers behind the table and the 2 dealers playing AT the table with me will never forget what I did that day! (Maybe the last time for a long time).

But you may be right, even the great MB says you cannot win by straight counting alone.

It is a very tough business, who needs the hassle and stress. But wait...maybe you do, the PRO!

Ouchez.

[Automatic Monkey]

Relative to the way BJ used to be dealt (S17, SD, down to the last card), sure, there are no good games anymore. So as a relatively new counter, although I respect the veterans' experience, I also realize that their perspective is colored by the way things used to be that no longer apply to what I have to do to win at BJ.

Look, an 8/1.5 game is not desirable but playable. You just grind away at it, the swings are big and the N0 is high but the win rate is there and it is real. Maybe not big enough to satisfy Ken Uston, but I'm not Ken Uston. Shop for opportunities, learn a little rudimentary shuffle tracking, work your comps and the money is there. Generally the worse the game the less the heat, so here in the East where the games are mediocre but you can get away with nearly anything, you learn to really push the envelope.

> Alright guys. Heres the deal. It is very difficult to
> win consistenly from professional blackjack in todays
> casinos.. Heres why you cant win from card counting
> alone..

[jay]

Ok Parker, I havent read Blackjack Attack 3rd Edition. The only system books I've read is KO blackjack, Blackjack for Blood, and Million Dollar Blackjack. I've played professional blackjack in Las Vegas for 2 years straight. I lived and played in Vegas everyday.. I used the AOII system. I played regular by sitting at the table, I've also wonged in and out. Yes I've had my winning streaks.. and at one point I felt I couldnt lose.. Then BOOM.. HUGE losing streak that took away ALL my profits and then some. I still thought and felt like I couldnt lose.. and kept playing. But I wasnt getting the results I would have liked. I stopped playing and reevaluated why I was losing. My conclusion was that it was because of the penetration. I've played in every casino in Las Vegas.. all of them. 99% deal the same way. I'm sure there are guys out there who win, good for them. I just expressed my opinions about the game.. I know your a long time pro, so hey I'll take your advice and read BJA 3.. and put it to the test. My point was that a) I dont like the penetration in todays game..and believe most will lose as counters going against that penetration. and b)I believe there are easier ways to make a living as a professional gamer.. But hey, I'll read BJA 3 and maybe that'll get me excited about Blackjack again. When I look at a moneymaking opportunity.. I want something thats gonna produce consistent profit.. I like something that has a near guarantee. When I played Blackjack, I didnt get that. However, I did get that from Sports Betting.

Jay

[Parker]

Now you're making a lot more sense. You are absolutely correct regarding the importance of penetration - you cannot win if you insist on playing poorly penetrated games. Game selection is the most important part of advantage play, and penetration is the most important aspect of game selection.

There are still good game in Las Vegas. However, I don't believe there are enough of them to support someone playing full time. If you are spreading agressively enough to win, you will shortly become unwelcome at all the playable games.The solution, of course is to travel. There are plenty of casinos in places other than Las Vegas. I've got a few good games right down here in San Diego. All the pros I know who do primarily straight counting spend a lot of time on the road.

A sharp advantage player can make a good living staying in Las Vegas, but most of the local pros have a number of different techniques, of which card counting is only one.

If you are doing well at sports betting, then you probably should stick with it.

[Francis Salmon]

Parker,
In your effort to take jay's post apart you went a bit overboard.I have read many books on Blackjack but the one with the most substance in it is definately "Million Dollar Blackjack". As the rules haven't changed since 1981, it cannot be called obsolete. It's like saying the Bible is essentially obsolete.
It is pretty naive to think that jay would just have to read BJA3 to become successful.Modern computer simulations cannot change anything about the player's chances, they have only a describing function.I'm sure jay knew everything he had to know about the game.If he still lost it was not for lacking know-how but because he failed to put this effectively into practice.May be he was not disciplined enough or he was using a counting system that was beyond his abilities and he made too many mistakes who knows.Reading yet another book wouldn't change anything about this.
I'm a bit surprised jay thinks he lost because of poor penetration because Uston already insisted on the importance of penetration.He even knew about the effects of floating advantage which is crucial for a professional.Unfortunately,Don plays it down in his book.

Francis Salmon