Noah: Standing on 16

[Noah]

I am having trouble with what my pea brain sees as an illogical play. The count is slightly positive...I have a hard 16...I hit a dealers 7 but I stand on his 10? The dealers is more likely to bust with a 7 (only 5 cards give him a pat hand) where his 10 is pat with 8 hole cards (7-A). So it seems to me to stand on his 7 but hit when he is strong with a 10. Where is my thinking flawed?

[Parker]

> I am having trouble with what my pea brain
> sees as an illogical play. The count is
> slightly positive...I have a hard 16...I hit
> a dealers 7 but I stand on his 10? The
> dealers is more likely to bust with a 7
> (only 5 cards give him a pat hand) where his
> 10 is pat with 8 hole cards (7-A). So it
> seems to me to stand on his 7 but hit when
> he is strong with a 10. Where is my thinking
> flawed?

Your error is focusing on the dealer breaking. The dealer is unlikely to break with either upcard. However, the dealer will likely end up with a stronger hand with the 10 upcard.

Obviously, you have a strong likelihood of busting regardless of the dealer upcard. However, against the 10, catching a small card (ace, 2, 3) doesn't help you much either. The only cards likely to turn your 16 into a winner are the 4 and 5.

Against the 7.the situation is not as bleak. Here, a 2 or 3 gives you a shot at winning the hand.

Trust the math. Not all plays are intuitive.

[Fred Renzey]

There is only a 3% difference between the dealer's bust frequency with a 7 up vs. a 10 up (26% vs. 23%). Yet, you have many more winning "outs" against the 7, since most cards that don't break you will win the hand for you. Not so against the 10. Think of it as playing poker and drawing to an inside straight (against the 10 up) vs. drawing to an open end straight (against the 7 up). One drawing hand is usually worth it, the other is ofen not.

[Noah]

> Your error is focusing on the dealer
> breaking. The dealer is unlikely to break
> with either upcard. However, the dealer will
> likely end up with a stronger hand with the
> 10 upcard.

> Obviously, you have a strong likelihood of
> busting regardless of the dealer upcard.
> However, against the 10, catching a small
> card (ace, 2, 3) doesn't help you much
> either. The only cards likely to turn your
> 16 into a winner are the 4 and 5.

> Against the 7.the situation is not as bleak.
> Here, a 2 or 3 gives you a shot at winning
> the hand.

> Trust the math. Not all plays are intuitive.

Okay....I get it now. I wasn't looking to challenge the computer. I just find it easier to retain the index numbers if I understand the logic behind them. Thanks for the response